Nifty has taken good support at the trendline, but stll the fear is there in the markets, as world markets are still showing sings of weakness. Emerging markets will bounce back prior to the developed markets, but that will not be so soon. As the fincancial position of the world markets are still not getting better. Crude prices have short up to $40 per barrel after taking support near 30-35 levels, as mentioned earliier in my note. Volumes are very less in the markets.Bse volumes in the month of Dec 08 was nearly arouond Rs 4000 Cr but the volumes in the month of Feb have drastically fallen down to nearly Rs 2500-2800 Cr levels. Till the time good volumes do not happen in the market, the revial is not in sight.

==>> Markets closed flat. Some tax relief

Today the markets closed almost flat. Sensex closed at 8822 after making a low of 8619. Nifty made a low of 2677 before closing at 2733.90. Markets opened week amid week global markets. In the morning SGX Nifty was trading down 56 points.

Today Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee announced some relief measures to help industry cope up with the economic slowdown. Finance Minister has cut excise duty on bulk cement to 8% or Rs 230/tonne; cut service tax to 10%; also cut excise duty by additional 2%. The excise duty of 8% will be applicable beyond March 31. He also extended custom duty on naptha beyond March 31. A 4% excise duty cut across the board will also be extended beyond March 31.

Nifty has taken support at the trendlin. We might see some pull back from these levels.. Earlier i have informed that on every rise in Educomp create short position, it will see a nose dive fall. yesterday it was down around 14%, made a low of 1710 in Nse. We might see some pull back again, but wait for the right oppurtunity to create short position again......

Yesterday Rupee has breached the 50 mark. Rupee had closed at 49.8 Vs dollar. Nifty has again closed below the trendline.

Technically Nifty has broken the triangle pattern. But in the downward trend.. In the last few weeks Nifty had been trading in between the 2 trendline, but finally failed to close above the above trendline. Finally yesterday the Nifty has closed below the 2 trendline. The RSI is also in the downtrend. On 16th nifty had take good support at 20DMA, but finally the same is also broken. US Markets are deep in red. But the Asian markets have not fallen down to that extent.

==>> No great Interim Budget, Japn Economy shrinks

Japan's economy shrinks 3.3%. Japan's economy contracted 3.3 per cent in the three months to December compared with the previous quarter, its worst performance in more than 30 years.
On an annualised basis, gross domestic product declined at a rate of 12.7 per cent, underlining the depth and severity of a slump that has dispelled early hopes that the world's second largest economy might be able to shrug off the effects of the global financial crisis.
Last week Indian markets rallied in the hope that there will be many tax breaks and new stimulus package will be announced, but as usual nothing was not announced in the Interim Budget. But one +ve news may follow i.e More rate cuts. Yes there will be more rate cuts in the near future.
Technically speaking, We can clearly see in the in the Nifty chart that, it is facing stiff resistance at the trendline. Nifty is trying to cross over and close above the tredline, but there has been continous selling pressure near 3000 levels. Nifty is still trading inside the triangle pattern. EITHER SIDE CROSS WILL BE THERE AND THAT WILL BE SHARP........

==>> Highlights of Interim Budget

Highlights:
* Sustained growth of 9 per cent, witnessed in the last three years.
* Gross domestic savings rate increased from 29.8 per cent in 2003-04 to 30.7 per cent in 2007-08.
* Tax to GDP ratio increased from 9.2 per cent 2003-04 to 4.5 per cent 2007-08.
* Foodgrain production increased by 10 million tonnes each year to all time high of 230 million tonnes in 2007-08.
* Annual rate of growth in agriculture was 3.7 per cent.
* Foreign trade rose from 23.7 per cent of GDP to 35.5 per cent of GDP in 2007-08.
* Inflation rate fell to 4.4 per cent on Janaury 31, 2009.
* World economy, according to forecasts, will fare worse in 2009 than in 2008.
* Industrial production fell by two per cent in 2008 on a year to year basis.
* India is second fastest growing economy in the world with 7.1 per cent GDP expansion in 2008-09.
* Export growth rate in first nine months of 2008-09 touched 17.1 per cent. Industrial production fell by 2 per cent in December.
* 50 infrastructure projects worth Rs 67,700 crore given in-principle or final approval.
* India Infrastructure Finance Company to raise Rs 10,000 crore from market by end of March 2009.
* India Infrastructure Finance Company will finance 60 per cent of commercial loans in private public partnership in critical projects.
* Government relaxes Fiscal Responsibility Budget Management (FRBM) targets to counter global economic slowdown.
* FDI inflow between April-Nov 2008 was USD 23.3 billion, a growth of 45 per cent compared with that during the same period in 2007.
* Need for acclerating pace of policy reforms, particularly in financial sector, says Mukherjee.
* Agriculture credit has been increased by three fold to Rs 2,50,000 crore.
* Rs 65,300 crore in loans waived for farmers during 2008-09. It benefitted 3.6 crore households.
* Government to continue interest subvention scheme for farmers for loans up to Rs 3 lakhs.
* Minimum support price for wheat increased from Rs 630 to Rs 1080 per qunital.
* 60.4 lakh houses constructed under Indira Awas Yojana during the year.
* Rural infrastructure development scheme to be expanded through suitable allocations.

==>> Fertilisers stocks day out on back of new govt plan

On thursday the Govt approved the plan to help fertilisers plants to switch to natural gas from fuel oil and naptha as feedstock, the companies to be benefited from the move are RCF, FACT Ltd, GNFC, NFL. Under the new policy, fertiliser units would be granted an additional 'special fixed cost' of Rs 3,500 per tonne of urea. The companies will effectively get Rs 750 crore as re-imbursement for conversion, thus getting Rs 3,200 crore back.

Inflation for week-ended January 31 has come in at 4.39% versus 5.07% week-on-week (WoW). Most in the past 1 year.

Inf the start of the Indian markets rallied on the back of the interim budget that is going to be announced on Monday 16th Feb 2009. In the Daily chart there has been short term breakout above the trendline. But the breakout will not be so easy. There will be more resistance then supports. Nifty faced resistance at the above trendline. In the last 3 days Nifty has been trying hard to cross the same.

In the Weeekly chart also the Nifty took the support the 1st trendline and facing resistance at the 2nd trendline. Indian markets fell on the back of the fall in the Asian and the European markets. It has been a regular scenario that, punters gather around one stock or two whos market float are less, they see to that the stock prices sky rocket in a day or so. This is an unusal sight the stock prices soared 100% in day. Today Hexaware soared 100% in a day. Spice Comm climbing around 50%. These two stocks were not new listing... Yesterday we have seen Remi metals soaring 400%, and few days Gujarat Cotex rallied to unbelivable heights in the single day of 6500%. These 2 are were the new listing stocks. Punters trade in the illiquied stocks and see to that the stocks prices soar to unbelivable heights.... What a sight..... Everybody is busy around "SATYAM", but who will look around the rest of the counters, whos prices are manipulated like this... By doing so the promoters become multi billionare in day...... The fastet way to become rich. Crude has fallen to $35 per barrel... Realty sector may attract good money & new norms in the Interim budget.. Look out for the sector for short term buys......

Indices closed marginally positive with high volatility. Open session remained positive, Indices rallied and in the midsession started drgaing down. But due to value buying and the some shortcovering, the markets rallied again to close in the positive zone. Nifty closed above at 2934 up 14 points and Sensex cloed at 9647 up 64 points.

==>> Growth seen at 7.1%, 2nd in the race after China

The economic growth is poised to grow at 7.1%. Yes it is below the expected growth rate, but atleast India is looking forward for a good growth rate. India is the second fastest growth after China, and that has to be a good news for India.This indeed a very positive development.
As mentioned earlier that the Nifty is facing resistance at the trendline.Technically Nifty chart has shown breakout above the long term trendline. MACD is also moving up and the RSI is also above 50. This means that the Nifty in the short term may bounce back till 3000-3050 levels. I had given call on RIL too, the same has been on the move and yesterday it almost touched Rs.1400, call give was at 1320 on Friday. hold, it has a capacity to touch 1430 levels.

As mentioned earlier, we can see breakout in the RIL chart above 1320. Volumes in the same had been good on Friday. It will still rally furtherhold. Nifty chart hs also seen breakout upside... It can go up to 3000++ levels

In the last few trading session the the volumes were pretty good, but today the volumes had fallen down badly. In the last 4 trading days the Nifty faced the resistance at the trendline. Breakout above it is necessary for the Nifty to go up.