==Nifty might close above 4600 tommorrow

Yesterday markets closed in red, but bounced back sharply the next day. Sensex and Nifty both surged more than 1%. Markets opened up week, but bounced back smartly even after the fall witnessed in the Indian markets. Yesterday’s fall was on back of fall in the Chinese markets. Nifty in the early trading hours made a low of 4474.50 but closed near its day high at 4570.60. Nifty was up 57.95% or 1.28%. Todays rally should continue for tommorrow also. According to me Nifty will bounce back again tom. and might close above 4600 levels.
Sensex closed at 15387.96 up by 214.50 points. Sensex made a low of 15065. Markets surged the most in the latter half. Through the day Sensex was up nearly 100 points. Buying in IT, Steel, Oil and power lead the markets rally. But some of the heavyweights saw some selling pressure too, stocks like RIL, Bhel. In the trading hours I had given call to short RIL at 1920 levels, as it was looking week, the stocks tumbled down to make a low of 1890 in BSE.
Volumes due to the rolls were on the higher side. Nifty is still trading between the 2 parallel trendline. As mentioned in my earlier article also that, for further upside move then the nifty should close above 4600 levels.
Some buy calls given
Tata Steel at 436, made a high of 457.30.
Yesterday had given call on TCS at 480 made a high of 530 today.
BUY TATA STEEL, ICICI BANK, TCS, SBI

Today the had been very volatile through the day. Indices opened up strong, but within an hour tumbled down to the negative zone. Markets were trading at the higher levels at the start of the trading session, but the crash in the Chinese markets lead to fall in the Indian markets also. Shanghai fell down by almost 6%. Nifty fell down to make a low of 4420, below the support levels but closed above 4500 levels. As mentioned in my earlier article, that the Nifty is facing strong resistance at 4600 levels but till the time Nifty is not closing above 4600, the upside move is limited. Volumes were pretty high due to F&O expiry tomorrow.

==>> 4600 levels is a major concern for markets

Nifty is back to 4600 levels again, and finding great resistance at the same. Last time too in the month of June, Nifty for the first time since the markets recovered from the bottom, closed in green above 4600. Markets closed marginally down on back of the RBI's concern about the inflation numbers. RBI kept the key policy rates unchanged. By doing this RBI's wants the Bank to lend more to the customers. He has also indicated that the rates will not be kept low forever. Traders kept their positions light through out the day. Indian markets witnessed a very volatile session. Indices kept on swinging from the positive to the negative territory.
Rollovers are also in line. Nifty rolls nearly at 41%.
POINT TO NOTE:
Last year, in the month of August, Nifty only for one time closed above 4600 levels. Almost after a year recovered the markets have recovered and the Nifty is back to its 4600 levels once again. But facing resistance at the same. In the last month Nifty tried to close above the same but did not succeed the same. Nifty is making an inverted head and shoulder pattern at the top. If it falls from that level, Nifty will find support at 4450 levels. For upside move Nifty should move above 4600 & support should be there at 4450 levels. If is falls below this then it may make a Triple Top formation and the nifty may continue its fall till 3900 levels again. In the recent past chart suggested that the upside move is there, but in the last 2 days Nifty seems to face resistance at 4600 levels. Breakout with high volumes will only decide the further move. Watch out for the support at 4450

==>> Nifty once again closed above 4500 levels

Indian markets witnessed a superb recovery from its 2 days downward movement. Nifty finally closed above its resistance level of 4500. Genuine buying in the frontline stocks helped the markets to surged nearly 3%. Its been a results week, Strong numbers shown by most of the companies too helped the markets to revive very soon.
Nifty shot up to make a high of 4532 up 129 points or 2.84%, and settled at 4528. Sensex surged 2.60% to close at 15231 up by 388 points. Bears tried to create short position in the markets in the past 2 days, but lost their control over the same in front of the bulls. There were short coverings in the markets that too lead bulls take the control. Nifty had taken good support at the trendline, and closed above the recent close at high on 20th July 2009. That may prove to be good for the markets. Nifty in the momentum can go upto 4550-4583-4637.
Volumes for the day again remained above 1 Lakh Cr. Before the markets opened I had given call on RIL Ind to buy above 1975, but unfortunately the stocks opened in green and made a low of 1990 and closed at 2038.

==>> Markets off days high

Indices continued its downward journey for the 2nd consecutive day. After the fantastic rally in the last week, there has been some profit booking in the last 2 days, which dragged Nifty to close below 4500 levels and Sensex too closed below the 15000 level mark. Downward journey with high volumes, may make some more downside in the markets. Total Volumes were pretty high with the total of more than 1 lakh crore in the markets.

Indices opened up strong, continued to rally, but sudden sell off in the markets, lead to down fall in the markets. Sensex in the the early trades was up by almost 300 points, but in the latter half fell down to almost 275 points. There was an intraday movement of almost 575 points in Sensex. BSE index closed at 14843 down by 219 points after making a high of 15369. Nifty closed down almost 155 points from its intraday high of 4557.95. Nifty broke down its level of 4500, to close down at 4398.90 down by 1.57%.

Sensex had gained nearly 1700 points in the last week, that too only 4 trading days. That is not sustainable. Some of th stocks have already filled up the gap that has been created in the chart after the UPA govt came in force, but there are many more frontline stocks that are still to clear that gap. So that Gap theory still remains the concern. I would still advice to keep the positions light and trade. The correction which we are looking forward , will be an opportunity to buy. People have really missed the last weeks rally, so I would suggest that investors should not miss this fall, and the downtrend should be used for buying. Global are at their 52 week high.

==>>

Till yesterday markets contiuned its awesome performance by closing for the 6th consecutive session in the green. Nifty yesterday cracked the 4500 mark and Sensex closed above 15000 levels. But as the rally has been too short and too fast, and the Nifty chart facing resistance at 4500 levels, there had to be some stoppage for the rally. Traders seen booking profits at higher levels. Markets opened up week. Remained in the negative zone for the rest of the day. Nifty closed down by 41 points to 4461. Nifty made a Intra day low of 4436 and high of 4524. Nifty will continously face selling pressure at the -4530 levels as mentioned in my earlier blog. Nifty will find support at 4450-4405 levels.

==>> Sensex closses above 15000

Wow what a rally this has been. Markets continued its northward journey for the 4th consecutive day, with little flat closing in between. Nifty and Sensex broke out through the trendline on Friday itself. On Monday Indices opened up strong continued to rally further. In my last article I had written that the MACD is signaling a bullish pattern. In the last 3 days, Nifty has taken good support at the 20 DMA. RSI trend have also turned up.
Markets opened up strong. Sensex opened with a gap in the positive zone. Nifty closed at 4495.95 after making an Intraday high of 4510 up almost 121 points. Nifty resistance level is at 4500 -4530- 4550. Support is at 4429- 4350 levels. I would rather suggest that the traders should keep on booking profits at the higher levels. Sensex have almost climbed 1000 popints in just 4 days. Thats not reasonble. Now all the people who had targets of 3700 Nifty, have shifted to 5200 in Nifty. Its not realistic. Sensex closed at 15191 up by 446 points. Buying in the IT stocks helped the Sensex and Nifty to make a high above 15000 & 4500 respectively. TCS reported better then good results. Buying were seen in the IT stocks.

==>> Disinvestment plans boost the markets

Governments disinvestment plans in the profit making companies, may have definitely given Indian markets a push. On Friday Finance minister announced the sell of stake in NMDC, which would raise over Rs 10,000 Cr. On Friday, some more announcements sailed in the markets to offload stake in MMTC, Hindustan Copper, and Engineers India & NTPC. The government will sell 5-10% stake in each company. The government had indicated that there will many more disinvestment plans in the near future. There was another surprise in the markets that the proposal for increase in the FDI limit in the Insurance will also be put on to the table for consideration. These were some of the expectation that did not come true in the recent budget. So the disinvestment news came as a surprise that gave the markets a boost.
The markets gained the most since May. Indices gained nearly 9% in the week. Sensex after making a low of 13219.99 on Monday. On Friday it had made a high of 14798.61. Sensex closed near its week high at 14744.92. Nifty closed at 4387.30, after making a weekly low & high of 3918.75 & 4390 respectively. In my last article, I had mentioned that the Nifty might fall down to 3900-3820 levels, But some how, Nifty found good support at 3900 levels and bounced back sharply. On Monday, in the daily chart of Nifty, an “Inverted hammer pattern” was made, that halted the downward movement. I had mentioned the same in my blog (www.techicalsvishaldangaich.blogspot.com) also that the fall will be temporarily halted. Markets bounced back sharply from there. Nifty faced resistance at 4080 levels, but the same was broken on Tuesday itself. Then there was no stopping for the Indian markets. On Friday closed above its 50% retracement levels.
The RSI is trending upwards. MACD is too giving a buy signal. Nifty closed above the 50 Retracement levels and above the trendline marked with no. 1 & 2. 50 DMA have also crossed the 20 DMA from below. Nifty will face resistance at 4391-4429- 4479. Nifty will find good support at 4140 levels.
I would advice the profit booking has to be done. Markets have run up too fast in a short period of time.
Last time I had given call on
RIL Ind to sell with tgt of 1749-1706, it made a low of 1717.
ICICI with tgt of 603-591, below 620, made a low of 606.
SBI with tgt of 1518-1507. made a low of 1510

FII’s & DII’s both remained Net buyers in the markets as per the official site. FII’s bought stocks worth nearly Rs 2000cr. DII’s remained Net buyers for Rs. 600Cr. Volumes in the markets were pretty good as compared to the week later.

==>> Nifty is back to 4205-4315 band

What a volatile markets this had been. Markets opened up strong but after that kept on sailing in the positive and the negative zone for the rest of the day. The tug of war between the Bulls and the Bears continued for the whole day. Markets closed flat. Both the Indices lost only 2 points. Yesterday US markets up by almost 3%. Asian markets too opened up strong. This definitely gave some boost to the Indian markets also. SGX Nifty was trading around 56 points up. Nifty crossed its resistance levels of 4250 levels.
In the last 2 days markets had almost gained nearly 900 points in Sensex and Nifty have gained around 350 points. Nifty faced resistance at 4315-4325 levels, which is supposed to be its 50% retracement level from its low time high to its lows in Oct 2008. Nifty faced resistance at the trendline also, and closed below its 50DMA. Inverted hammer pattern have been formed in the Nifty chart. That might indicate that the short-term rally has been come to an end. Nifty on Monday slipped down to 3918 levels and on the same day I had informed that there will some temporary stop to the decline in the markets. Nifty made a high of 4305 and closed down at 4233.40. Nifty has resistance levels at 4315-4325 levels and support at 4205-4140 levels. Yesterday had given call on RIL ind to buy above 1840, today Ril ind made a high of 1966 and closed at 1934.3 levels.

==>> Markets surged again

Its been a great pull back in the Indian markets. Yesterdays 'DOJI' pattern in the Nifty chart, had already given some confirmation about the temporary stop and some rally in the markets. And the same was mentioned in my last article. Todays candle stick pattern in an 'Bullish Engulfing pattern' that has absorbed the last 3 days pattern. Global markets too helped the Indian markets gain more than 3%. US markets up nearly 2%. Asian markets too opened up strong. Indian markets opened up strong remained in the positive day for the rest of the day. Nifty closed above 4100 levels. but the rally was not that smooth. In the initial trades, Nifty faced stiff resistance at 4080 levels. but latter we saw a decisive breakout was seen in the markets with good volumes. But Nifty closed below the resistance levels of 4140 levels. Nifty at the higher levels will face resistace at 4205.
I had given sell call on Hero honda, Sell below 1395, it did touch the low of 1377 in BSE, but recovered again as the mkts too surged sharply.
Nifty closed at 4111.4 up by 3.46% or 137 points, after making a intraday high of 4128.9 and low of 3974. Sensex closed up by 453 or 3.38% at 13853.7. Short covering mainly in the frontline stocks helped the markets gain some points. Fresh buying in RIL, INFOSYs, SBI and many forntline stocks were seen.

Markets opened up week, as the Nifty closed below the support levels of 4050 levels. Indices remained in the -ve zone in the range of 150-250 points in Sensex. Selling in the frontline stocks kept the Indices in the -ve territory. Markets tried to bounce back, but could not succeed in the end. Nifty closed down at 3974 down by 55 points or 0.77%, after making an intraday low of 3918. Sensex made an intraday low of 13219 before settling at 13400.32 down by 103.9 points or 0.77%.
The pattern that has been made in the Nifty chart indicates that tomorrow the markets may bounce back. A small ‘Hammer’ pattern has been made. But still the Nifty will face resistance upside. Traders should not take long positions.
FII’s remained Net sellers for the week ended 09th July 2009 for stocks worth Rs.4680 Cr. DII’s remained Net Buyers for Rs.3700 Cr.

==>> Nifty support at 4050

Its been an Very volatile day. Indices kept on moving from the -ve to +ve zone and back again. Sensex opened up strong nearly 100 points up but slided almost 120 points immediately. Indices recovered and rallied back to the green zone, but closed marginally down by 12 points. Nifty took support at 4050 and surged past 4110 levels. Nifty closed at 4080 up by just 1 point. Nifty dipped in the early session to make a low of 4039. Sensex closed at 13757 after making a low of 13643.
Some of my calls
Infosys Below 1686, can tank till 1665-1641-1616 ( Did not trigger 1686 )
ICICI looks week. The gap created after the UPA goverment came in force, is trying to get filled. below 648, ICICI bank can go upto 635-616 levels ( made a low of 622 )
NIFTy may take support at 4050 and might bounce back again termporaily ( Nifty surged to make a high of 4115 )
BUY TCS cmp 382.5 SL 377. ( made a high of 390.90 )
BUY SBI cmp 1586 with SL of 1579 ( high of 1624.80 was made )

[11:41] vishal_retail: NIFTy may take support at 4050 and might bounce back again termporaily
BUY TCS cmp 382.5 SL 387.
BUY SBI cmp 1586 with SL of 1579

==>> NIfty closed below 4100

This time the budget is proving to be bad for the Bulls. Post budget the Nifty has fallen down from the high of 4479 to make a low of 4061. Sensex tanked by almost 1331 points to close at 13769.15. Budget was not upto the expectation. On Monday, the Indices closed below the trendline. The head and shoulder pattern have broken down. But yesterday the Nifty took support at 50DMA, but today that also have been broken.
Through out the day markets traded in the negative zone. In the mid session markets did try to recover the lost glory but could not succeed and lost in the closing session. Sensex closed at 13769 down by 401 points or . Nifty closed down by 127.70 points at 4074. Nifty had good support 4140, but today it has closed below the same. Nifty today has closed below the lows made on 26th May 2009. The head and the Shoulder pattern have also broken down. The gap theory is proving to be true as mentioned in my last few blogs. Nifty on Monday had closed below the 50% retracement levels of Fibonacci. Nifty if closes below 4050, then 3850-3900 could be seen. Technically markets are looking week. If the gap theory is to be proven right than the Nifty might fall down to 3700 levels. But at this juncture I would not be able to tell that the Nifty will fall to that extent. Nifty will face stiff resistance at 4140-4205 levels. Close above this, will decide the trend upwards. Traders should watch out for the levels. If the Markets bounces back also, that will come out as an opportunity to sell ur del. But this dip will be an real good opportunity to buy with a longer period prospective. BUY on declines.
On the Activity side in the markets, nothing much to be said. FII since the last 2 days remained Net sellers. DIIs were Net buyers in the Market.
ICICI looks week. Below 648, ICICI bank can go upto 635-616 levels.
Infosys Below 1686, can tank till 1665-1641-1616

Mr. Mukherjee Presented the Budget yesterday. It was altogether a very normal budget. There were no new suprises in the Budget. Yes we all the outcome was way below the market expectations. But to be honest the expectation were very high, as mentione in my earlier blogs also. Since so many years traders are very comforatble shelling out STT. It did not give any sense, to scrap the STT from the market. As the government is earning good amount via STT.
Yes the Budget did not give any happiness, But according to me the Budget was very normal and there is no negative news or outcome in the Budget. The markets tanked, just because, in the last 2-3 weeks the markets had surged on the Budget expectations. The outcome was not as per the markets, so the traders who had the long position started squaring up their positions. The sell off in the frontline stocks triggered the fall in the Indian markets.
Markets might pull back today. but the levels in to be seen in Nifty is 4140-4090. Few close below that can take the Nifty to 3950 levels also.
Yesterday the Nifty has closed above the 50DMA.

==>> Budget not so special this time

So finally the Big day have arrived. Finance Minister Mr Mukherjee came out with a very normal and simple budget. As mentioned in my earlier blogs also, that the Budget this time will be very normal, and there will not be any new suprises. There were news that the STT will be removed, but I kept on arguing, that the STT will continue. As the traders are still paying the STT since a long time and they are comfortable with that. Government gets a huge income via STT. They have already provided with 3 stimuls packages. Abolishing of the STT would have been like, stepping on the sword. Some of the highlights of the budget are as follows.

Customs duty on bio-fuel diesel cut to 2.5% vs 7.5%

Commodities transaction tax (CTT) to be abolished

Carry forward tax credit on minimum alternate tax (MAT) to 10 years vs 7 years:

Eliminate surcharge of 10% on personal income tax

Personal income tax exemption hiked by Rs 10,000

To allocate Rs 7,000 cr to Rural Electrification Scheme

Print media stimulus extended till Dec 31, 09

Agriculture credit target at Rs 3.25 lakh cr

IIFCL to refinance 60% of bank loans for PPP projects

FY10 fiscal deficit at 6.8% of GDP:

There was no Tax rebate for the corporates. The market did not take the outcome on the Budget positively. Markets opened up strong. but continued its downward journey for the rest of the day. Sensex from the high of almost 100 points sinked nearly 950 points in the intraday session. Nifty tanked 258.55 points to close at 4165.70, after making a low of 4133.70. Sensex closed at 14043.40 down by 870 points, after making a low of 13959.50

Nifty finally closed below the 4205 levels.

Nifty has support at 4140-4090-4075 levels.

In the blog of posted on 27th June, I had mentioned that the Nifty and Sensex had opened with a huge gap that that been created when the UPA govt came into force and the Mkts had hit the upper circuit of 20%. That may be a concern. Whenever the gap has been created, that stock or index normaly comes to fill up that gap. It may fill up completely or half. Now everyone has started talking this patter. I am glad to inform the readers of this blog, that this theory was informed to th readers long time back.

== Economic Survey recommendatios

Some the recommendataions that have come up when the Economic Survey was taken.
Allow 100% foreign direct investment (FDI) in health, weather insurance.
Decontrol sugar and fertilizer industries.
Convert producer subsidies into direct consumer subsidies.
Raise FDI in defence production to 40%.
Lift price controls on all drugs, especially essentials.
Separate telecom licences from spectrum allocation.
Introduce new income tax code.
Rationalise dividend distribution tax (DDT); avoid double taxation.
Phase out tax surcharges, cesses, transaction taxes.
Remove commodities transaction tax (CTT), fringe benefit tax (FBT), securities transaction tax (STT).
Review customs duty exemptions.
Eliminate inverted duty structure.
Covert specific textile duties to ad velorum.
Raise FDI in insurance to 49%.
List unlisted public sector units (PSUs), offload at least 10% equity.
Cut oil, fertilizer, food subsidy leakages.
Limit liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) subsidy to six to eight cylinders per year.
K-oil subsidy only for non-electrified, non-LPG homes.
Aim to generate Rs 25,000 crore.
Start by selling 5-10% of profitable non-navratnas.
Auction loss making PSUs.
Link small saving rates to gilt and bank deposits.
Telecom: Auction spectrum; make it freely tradeable.

==>> Unusual event

Today, the Government of India came out with its economic survey. Some of ther recommendations includes increase in FDI, Divestment, Removal of Taxes. The expectations this are very high with the new government. The new will try their best to bring the economy back on high growth path. But how much will they be able to provide?? is the question.. The markets remained choppy through out the trading session. The markets gave feeling of the roller coaster ride. Kept the traders really busy.
Unsuall to see, the circuit levels in the BSE and NSE were different for same script listed on both the exchanges. Thats really unexpected from the Exchange that this could happen. For ex ITI was locked at the upper circuit of 5% at 39.75 in NSE and in BSE it was trading at 43-44 levels. In BSE it had 20% circuit levels. In the closing session all the sell orders in the BSE segment above the 5% circuit levels were cancelled. To name some Hindcopper, ITI, Mcnally Bharat, KLG Systel etc, whose limits were reset today in BSE and not changed in NSE. All the pending selling orders above the 5% levels were cancelled. The biggest and the idiotic thing happened in the Assam Co. stock. There was a block deal also.. hahaha yes a block deal that to at the price of Rs.77. And the yesterdays close price was just Rs15. Its unbelivable man...... There was a block deal at the price of Rs 77 of more than 1Cr share. From where did that Seller found the buyerer who will buy the stock at a price of Rs .15 when it closed at Rs .15 on the earlier day. How could this happen. Finally the BSE had to cancel the trade. According to me that, all the trades above the normal circuit levels has to be cancel. Otherwise, the buyers at the higher prices will be repending now, and the sellers will be unnecessarily enjoying the benefit of selling the stocks at the higher levels.

==>> Choppy market, but still ended higher

Markets today had a very choppy session.Indices opened up strong, rallied for a while. Sudden selling triggered the markets to fall down to zero levels losing all its gain. Sensex was almost 150points positive, but fell down to nearly 140 points negative. Buying after the mid session, helped the Indice overcome its lost gains and close nearly 152 points positive. Nifty closed at 4340.9 up by 49.8 points or 1.16%. Nifty made a high of 4362 and a low of 4249.70. Nifty took support at 4240 levels, bounced back again and closed above the 4315-4325 levels. Sensex closed with a again of 151 points at 14645.
European markes opened up strong, that gave boost to the Indian markets. Markets men lack interest to take any long position pre budget. Every ones waiting for the Budget day to arrive. I personally do not think that there will be any surprises in the Budget. Last year they had come out with the People's Budget as the election day was nearing. But as the UPA are already in force, there wont be any special packages. News in the market are STT will be removed, Tax slab will be given more, special packages for textile industry, more FDI level.