==>> Shanghai spoils the party

On Friday, markets closed up green. But today opened on the negative note on back of week Asian markets. Chinese markets were the main culprit to the fall in the Global markets. Shanghai fell down almost 7% in intraday trading. Reports are in the markets that the Chinese markets may still see 5-15% correction. Indian Indices too opened weak. Sensex opened down by 90 points slipped down nearly 330 points in the mid session. But recovered some points in the late hours to close down by 255 points at 15659. Nifty tumbled down to make a intraday low of 4635. Nifty closed at 4662, down by 70 points or 1.48%. Heavy sell off the IT, Power, FMCG and telecom stocks lead the markets tumbled down.

Q1 GDP grew by 6.10% v/s 7.80% YoY.
Farm sector growth at 2.4% versus 3% YoY
Manufacturing growth at 3.4% versus 5.5% YoY
Mining sector growth at 7.9% versus 4.6% YoY
Construction sector growth at 7.1% Vs 8.4% YoY
Industry growth at 5% versus 6% YoY
Services sector growth at 7.8% versus 10.2% YoY

But compared to the QoQ GDP grew by 6.10% v/s 5.80%, and that is good. The Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission Montek Singh Ahluwalia is still confident that the economy will clock % growth in FY10 despite the drought.

On Friday also Nifty could not cross the upper trendline line. Today also it faced resistance at the same. In the last 3 months we have seen that 4700 levels in Nifty attract selling pressure. Breakout above the recent high with good volumes is necessary for the Bulls to take charge.

Markets continued to be volatile. Markets continued to swing from the high of almost 150 points and dropping down to almost zero levels. But closed marginally higher in green. Indices gained around 0.50% on one day prior to the monthly expiry of the F&O. Volumes were pretty good above 1 lakh Cr. Mid cap continued its unstoppable rally. Reliance Ind and the major IT stocks helped the rally. But the sell off in the other heavyweight stocks like ONGC, HUL, HDFC Bank, Bharti, ITC, Hero Honda capped the rally.
Nifty made an intraday high of 4697.80 and closed at 4677.90. Selling pressure continued to put pressure. Sell off kept Nifty off the track and Nifty could not close above 4700 levels. Rolls have been pretty good in the markets. More over there are long rollovers happening in the markets. As stated in the earlier blog also that the Nifty will continue to face resistance at 4700 levels. If Nifty closes above 4700 levels then we might new high above 4800.
Yesterdays call Satyam continued to rock and closed above at 110.30 after making an intraday high of 111.95.
Karutari Global closed above 16. BUY Tata Steel above 470.
BUY Abb with SL of 730.

==>> 4th consecutive day of rally.

Markets continued its northward rally for its 4th day. In the early hours markets opened up strong. Sensex was almost 200 points down, but aftre the noon, pulled back sharply to close in the green by around 65 points. Nifty in the intraday made a low of 4582 and high of 4672 before closing at 4657. Volumes were also pretty good in the market. Shanghai markets in the early hours fell down almost 6% but recovered in sometime. Sensex closed in green. We might see some side ways movement tommorrow.

Buy call on Karutari was given for some quick bugs.

Buy call on Satyam at 103.

==>> "I am back to 4600 levels" - Nifty

Nifty is back to the 4600 levels. In the last few trading session 4600 levels is Nifty had really proved to be an important level. Nifty after breakdown below the 4600 tanked to the 4440 levels. But agained bounced back to close above 4600 levels. Midcap stocks continued to shine. Midcap stocks weref found locked in the upper circuit levels. In the last 3 days Nifty nearly rose 250 points and Sensex surged almost 800 points. Many brokers had come out with reports saying that the Nifty will tank to 3800 levels, but wrirter continiusly informed that the markets are in Bulls, and 4440 levels is a very good support. I had also stated that, till the time Nifty closes below the same for more that 2 consecutive day, Nifty will not go down further. And finally the Nifty bounced back from the 4440 levels and that to, sharply. If the Nifty closes above 4700 levels this time, then the recent high could be broken.
Global cues too helped the Indian markets. Most of the Asian and Global Indices too surged almost 3-4%. US indices futures were too trading a percentage up. Volumes remained lackluster in the markets.

==>>Nifty bounced back sharply

Volumes have been very dry in the week. On the Thursday, volumes gained on back of new listing of Adani power. FII for the week remained seller for the amount of Rs.3000 Cr for the week ended 20th Aug 2009. DII remained buyers for the week to the tune of Rs1500 cr. Wholesale Price Index-based inflation fell 1.53 per cent during the week ended August 8 against the previous week’s year-on-year dip of 1.74 per cent, according to data issued on Thursday. Midcap continued its rally.
On Monday Nifty closed below the 4440 levels and below its 2 parallel trendline. RSI to close below its trendline. Nifty continued its roller coaster ride. Nifty took support at the 50DMA. Nifty continued to face resistance to close above the resistance level. But successfully closed above the same on Friday, with good volumes. Nifty will continue to have support at 4440 levels. Nifty has small resistance at 20DMA at 4530 levels. But close above the same can take Nifty to 4585 -4637 levels.

Markets opened up strong. Had volatile markets in the early hours. Then moved in the upper side. Nifty once again crossed the 4440 levels. Yesterday Nifty closed down below 4400 levels, well below its support of 4440 levels, but the very next day it bounced back sharply to close at 4456 up by 69 points. Nifty made a high of 4491. Sensex closed up 250 points at 15035. US markets closed down. Asian markets were flat in the morning. Shanghai gained almost 1.5%. Europe markets too opened up strong. Buying in the frontline Banking, Infra and metals stocks.
Nifty has once again closed above the 4440 levels. But have closed below the trendline. We have witnessed in the past too that below 4440 levels in Nifty and 15000 in Sensex normally triggers a buy mode, that helps the markets to rise sharply.
As stated in my earlier report that, if the 2nd day close below 4440 levels can trigger Nifty to touch 4250 levels, but for temporary that sell off if stopped. We might see some pull back. But 4440 levels still remains a major support levels.

==>> Shanghai the new concern

Fall in the China's market have finally starting pinching the global markets too. Shanghi markets fell by 6%. Global markets too faced the trail. Indian markets fell the most in 3 months. Nifty closed down below its support levels of 4440. Last week Nifty too support at 4440 levels and bounced back sharply. But yesterday Nifty closed below the same. IN the chart we can see that the Nifty had closed below its 2 parallel trendline. The same thing is also witnessed in the RSI trend also. If today also Nifty closes below 4440 levels, then 4200 in Nifty can be felt. Nifty took support at the the 50DMA. Nifty will face stiff resistance at 4440 levels.

==>> Can the markets sustain the selling pressure

Nifty chart pattern made on Tuesday gave some indication that there can be some stoppage in the selling, but the confirmation will mostly depend on the next trading day patter only. Next day in the late hour recovery proved that we might see a pull back on the next day itself. And I am pleased to inform the readers, that the Sensex surged more than 500 points and Nifty rose by 150 points to close above 4600 levels. In the chart we can clearly see that the Nifty had taken good support at 4440 levels and the trendline also. Nifty was trading in between the two-paralled trendline. Nifty took good support at 50 DMA. The IIP data also added to the party. The June Index of Industrial Production (IIP) came in at 7.8% as against 5.4% year on year and 2.7% month on month. Inflation slips to 33 year low at -1.74% for the week.

Bears tried it again of Friday. Kept the indices in pressure for most of the day. Nifty closed down at 4569.after hitting an intraday high & low of 4619 & 4559. As mentioned in my last article, that the selling pressure will come to an end in the next week and Nifty has a good support at 4440 levels. Nifty will still continue to have its support at 4440. Till the time Nifty trades below that, traders can take risk and trade. This time if Nifty closes above 4650, then we might see new highs in Nifty that was made in Aug month.

==>> Nifty once again above 4600 levels

It’s been a sign of relief for the bulls in the markets. Indian markets saw a splendid rally. Nifty once again surged up sharply and closed above 4600 levels. Sensex closed nearly 500 points higher and Nifty closed 150 points up. Yesterday when the markets were on, I had mentioned that if the markets recover and closes marginally down, then we might see some bull back. And the same was mentioned in my blog too (http://www.technicalsvishaldangaich.blogspot.com/ ). A candle stick made on Tuesday and the confirmation on the next day stated that the selling pressure has been stopped. In the last 3 days Nifty made a low below 4440 levels, but some how managed to stop above the same, and if the Nifty stays above 4440 levels then we might see some buyers shopping in the markets.
Today markets opened up strong. Indices opened up and continued its rally for the rest of the day. Indices closed near to their intraday high. After a long time, unfortunately there are no LOOSERS in the NSE and the BSE index. All the frontline stocks have contributed to the rally. Most of the Midcap shares were locked in their upper circuit or rallied 5%-20%. Yesterday I had given call on the Real Estate stocks, that some serious buying is seen in the sector. Most of the stocks zoomed.
Nifty closed at 4611 up by 154 points or 3.31%. Sensex surged more that 500 points to close above 15500. Sensex closed at 15518 up 498 points or 3.32%. Last 3 days chart pattern has been absorbed by a single bullish candle. The RSI and the Nifty chart are trending perfectly in the same direction and yesterday only they have turned up. If the rally continues then Nifty will surpass 4700 -4800 levels this time. Nifty will continue to have good support at 4513 and 4440 levels in extreme case. Nifty will face resistance at 4625-4649-4690 levels. Till the time Nifty closes below 4440 for 2 days, do not panic. Yesterday good amount of short covering happened in the market on back of excellent IIP data as compared on MOM and YOY basis. Many shorts positions had been created due to deficit in the monsoon.

==>> Markets bounces back on short covering

Markets fell in its early hours. For most of the day markets remained down by almost 2.75%. But in the late hours markets recovered sharply and surged up to its previous low. Sensex closed down by just 54 points after recovering nearly 300 points from its low. Nifty close down by 14 points. Nifty made a low of 4359 but due to strong IIP data and short covering in the markets, Nifty surged to close at 4464. Once again Nifty managed to closed above 4440 levels. In the last 3 days Nifty has some how managed to close above 4400 levels after making a low below the same. on each trading day. 4400 levels in Nifty seems to be a good support. At these levels markets are attracting some serious buyers and the short are been cut off. As seen earlier also that the 4400-4425 levels have been proved to be a good support and resistance area.
Yesterday the pattern that had been made in the Nifty chart is "DOJI" pattern. And it was made at the lower levels, after the 3 days falling markets. Doji pattern gives a smaller signal that the rally or the fall can come to a hault, but it also depends upon the next days trading pattern also. Today a Dragon Fly Doji pattern is made. It means that the sellers still loom in the markets but the selling had been absorbed by some Bulls too, that pushed the Nifty back ot its Previous close. This pattern at the bottom may prove that the bottom has been made, but the future trade will only give the confirmation. We might see some temporary relief.
Huge buying in the real estate stocks and some short coveing in the frontline stocks pulled back the markets from its low.

==>> Personal call

[15:06] vishal_retail: MY Personal View---- Yesterday 11th Aug in the Nifty chart the candlestick pattern that was made is "DOJI" and that was made at the lows. Whenever this is made a low then there are possibility that there can be a turnaround, but it also depends on the next days pattern also... 12th Aug, If Nifty closes marginally down or up then the pattern will be "Hammer", and that too at the lower end. That will too be +ve for the mkts, and If the nIfty opens above todays close then we might see some pull back or some relief from this panic...

Calls Give
Real Estate stocks looks good. might bounce back, if the mkt recovers.... DLF, HDIL,ORBIT...

BUY Punjlyod cmp 228 SL 225.5

==>> IIP data

The June Index of Industrial Production (IIP) came in at 7.8% as against 5.4% year on year and 2.7% month on month.
Manufacturing growth at 7.3% versus 6.1% (YoY)
Mining growth at 15.4% versus 0.1% (YoY)
Capital goods growth at 11.8% versus 7.8% (YoY)
Electricity growth at 8% versus 2.6% (YoY)
Consumer durable goods growth at 15.5% versus 4.6% (YoY)
Consumer non-durable goods growth At 0.3% versus 11.6%
Meanwhile the May IIP number has been revised downward from 2.7% to 2.2%

==>> Rainfall now the major concern for the markets

Markets are trying hard to keep it afloat. Nifty is dragging itself above the 4440 levels. After the 3 days of hard selling, the fall in the Indian markets have come to an end. In the last 3 days FII remained net sellers in the markets. Nifty fell down from the high of 4718 to 4398 within just 4 days. On 06th Aug Nifty fell down and closed below the trendline. The downward movement continue for the next 2 days also. In the alst 2 days Nifty some how managed to stay above 4400 levels. Volumes have been pretty low.

Nifty has a good support at 4450-4440 levels. Yesterday it had closed marginally below the 4440 levels. Today Nifty fell down to make a low of 4398 but closed above at 4470. Markets opened up weak, but bounced back immediately. For most the day Indices remained in the postive zone. Sensex was almost 200 points, but in the closing session, Bears tried to take control of the markets. There were huge Basket selling in the NIfty and the Nifty stocks, that lead to the fall in the markets. Sensex which was trading yp almost 200 points slided down to 50 points negative. Markets closed marginally up. Nifty somehow managed to close above the 4440-4450 levels. In the chart we can see that theNiftyin the last 4 days have sliped down from 4700 levels and closed down below the trendline. Today Nifty tried to bounce back and closed above the trendline, but the selling continue. Monsoon is now the major concern in the market. Trend is still negative in the market on back of rainfall deficit.

Nifty once again closed below 4600 levels

On Monday markets surged and closed higher. Nifty chart had pattern made on Monday closed above the trendline and had given the upside breakout pattern. Nifty closed at 4711 after making a high of 4723 for the first time since June 2008. On Tuesday Nifty closed down marginally after making a high & low of 4731 & 4642 levels. The next day too markets remained volatile. Nifty closed marginally up at 4694. Finally that proved that the battle is on in between the Bulls and the Bears. I had mentioned in my blog (www.technicalsvishaldangaich.blogspot.com) that the movement on Thursday will decide the trend in which the markets should head towards and traders should keep their positions light. Thursday markets opened up strong, but heavy winding up in the frontline stocks stopped the party. Until Thursday the markets were in the hands of the Bulls. But on Thursday Nifty closed below its trendline. RSI chart too was facing resistance. On Friday Nifty took support at the trendline. For the week Nifty made a high of 4731 and low of 4464. Nifty has good support at 4450-4370 levels. According to me the slide should stop in the next week as there is no other bad news other than the Monsoon deficit. Markets are still not in the hands of the Bears. Nifty will find resistance at 4600 levels. If the markets closes below 4450 for more than days then we might see 4200 in the future.

==>> Chinese Markets and NHPC leads to Indian mkt fall

Heavy selling in the markets dragged the Indices down by almost 3% in the intraday. But some how managed to closed nearly 2-5% negative. Markets in the mid session looked nearly strong, as the markets recovered sharply in the morning trades. For most of the day Indices remained in the positive zone, but could not sustain at the higher levels. Nifty had resistance at 4717 levels. On Monday, Nifty closed above 4700 for the first time since Sep 2008. But could not sustain at that levels. Next 2 days profit booking were seen above 4700 levels. FII’s sold the most. DII’s too booked some profits.
In the early hours markets looked very strong on back of good buying in the Bank and IT stocks. Stocks like RIL, Icici Bank, TCS, and Tata Steel rallied in the early trades, but dropped down like a pin in the late hours. After the early hours, there was heavy Basket selling in the Nifty stocks. Nifty this was up nearly 25 points dropped down by over 100 points to close below 4600. Heavy selling and fresh shorts in the Auto & Steel sector lead the markets fall. As mentioned in my last blog that the two day pattern indicates that there can be some hault in the upside move. But the today’s 3rd day pattern will only confirm the movement. We had some the breakout pattern in above the 2 parallel trendline. Today’s candle stick pattern confirmed that the upside is capped for time being. As in the last 2 days both the Bulls & Bears tried their best to control the markets. If the markets would have closed above at the 4730 levels then we could have seen 4850. But as the markets have given break down then we might see downside till 4515- 4450 in the extreme case. Markets are still not in the grip of the Bears. It is just that so me booking for the IPO of the NHPC has to be done. IPO is expected to attract nearly Rs.50000 Cr in the application. So from where will this money come from??
Various reports about the Chinese markets are out now these days. Chinese stocks look pretty expensive. Real estate stocks are highly overpriced. We might see some serious correction in the Chinese markets. Shanghai dropped to nearly 3% in the early trades. Europe markets too opened up week. Nifty resistance at 4700. Monsoon this year is down by almost 70% as compared to the normal rainfall. NHPC IPO money. All this lead the markets to fall down by 3%.
The RSI pattern in the chart too faced stiff resistance at the trendline. Could not surpass the same in the recent days, and now it has too turned to be negative. But the MACD is still not negative. Tomorrows day pattern will only decide the markets trend.

==>> Rally may be haulted for timebeing

Markets opened up strong. Nifty made a low of 4630 levels as their is good support at the 4635 levels. Nifty closed marginally in green. RSI is facing resistance at the trendline. Desicive break out upwards can take the Nifty to 4800 levels, but till the time it is not crossing the same, I would rather suggest that the positions should be kept light.
Nifty chart suggests that there will be some hault in the market rally. In the last 2 days. Nifty is Bulls are really trying hard for Nifty to close above 4700 levels. But the outcome of the tag of war between the Bulls and the Bears will decide the market trend. Till now the Nifty is closing above the trendline. We have good support at 4635 levels, but the trading pattern gives the suggestion that traders should keep their positions light.

==>> Profit booking leads market fall by half %.

Markets opened up in green but changed its trend and move towards the negative zone. There was no negative bias, but profit booking in the frontline stocks lead the markets to more that an percent down. SBI, RIL were among the stocks which helped the markets to hold. Sellling in the Tech and the power companies drag the marekts down. Tata Stell which opened up strong, lost in the mid session. ONGC too lead the markets drag down. . But the view is still not negative among the marketsmen. US markets closed up in green with handsome gains. Asian markets were trading flat in the morning. After almost a year Sensex touched 16000 in the early trades, but fell down. Markets again recovered in the end due to some buying in the frontline stocks like RIL, SBI and some sectors like cement and auto.
Sensex closed at 15830 down by 93.25 points or 0.59% after making intraday high and low of 16002 & 15699.
Nifty closed at 4680 down by 31 points or 0.66% after making a low of 4642. On Monday Nifty had closed above 4700 levels. Markets turned negative on back of profit booking. MACD is still not negative, and RSI is trending upwards. Nifty has good support at 4636 levels.

==>> Nifty above its resistance level of 4600

Markets witnessed huge buying interest on the first day after the F&O expiry. Buying in the OIL, banking and FMCG sector helped Nifty to close above 4600 levels and Sensex touched its new 2009 high at 15732. Sensex recent high close was 15466 in the month of July 2009. On Friday Sensex for the first time closed higher in 2009 at 15670. Nifty made a high of 4669 for the week. Nifty daily chart have made a head and shoulder pattern this week. The RSI pattern is also at the breakout of the head and Shoulder pattern. In the last few trading sessions, Nifty traded between the 2 parallel trendlines. On Friday Nifty successfully closed above the upper trendline. Bears did try to take the markets in control but lost the round to the Bulls. For the week Nifty closed 1.5% up as compared to its last months close. Nifty made a low of 4420 on Wednesday, but close above the 4500 levels. If the Nifty would have closed below 4450 levels then we could have seen 4250-4140 levels soon. Because the Triple Top pattern had been formed. But the selling had been totally absorbed on the next day. In the last article also I had mentioned that the MACD is giving a buy signal in the chart. On Thursday, I had mentioned in my personal blog (http://www.technicalsvishaldangaich.blogspot.com/) also that the Markets will bounce back. Nifty pattern has given a breakout pattern above the 4600 levels. Till the time the close is not below 4450 levels, Nifty will be in buying mode. Nifty has good support at 4450 levels. Resistance at 4693. Close above the same will take the Nifty to 4800 levels soon.