==>> Nifty trading at 4651

The 1st support of the Nifty 4670 is broken, the 2nd support is 4650 and the close below 4620 can pull down the Nifty to 4450. 4620 is the low that the Nifty made on 10th March

==>> IIP data spoils the party

Jan Industrial growth stands at 5.3% as against 11.6% yoy. Analysts expected a growth of 7.7%.
Jan Capital goods growth down from 16.3% to 2.1 % yoy. While jan Consumer Durable output is at 3.1% from 5.3% yoy.

In my Yesterdays Blog i have mentioned that the bears will run for their shorts, and we will see some good rally on the back of the short covering. i have mentioned that the Nifty can easily go upto 4950-5000 levels, and there is a good resistance at 5000 levels. Sensex and Nifty both opened with a gap. Nifty rallied till 5019.20 but within seconds it slided below 5000. In the morning i have clearly mentioned that short term traders should definitely book profits at the higher levels. Sensex slided down from positive 600 points to negative zone also. Same thing happened with the Nifty also. This is well informed to the viewers of my site.
Now 4800 will again act as a good support.
Nifty rest at 4950-5000 levels.

20 Dma has still not crossed the 200 dma from top to bottom. If this is crossed we again might see some selling pressure. But if the Nifty turns positive then it will have good resistance at 4950-5000 levels. If these Levels are broken then no one can stop the rally in the nifty till 5200 levels.

Today's candle stick pattern of the Nifty indicates that the Bulls in the early hours tired to get the control of the markets, but lost to the bears in the late hours. This could be due to profit booking or some fresh shorts created. We have seen the Sensex making double bottom at 15300 on Monday, and within 3 days the Sensex recovered around 1200 points. The carnage that has been done within these 2 months will not be so easily to recover.Technically speaking there are many resistance levels and very few support levels for our markets.

Asian markets are trading at around 1.5% up, then why are our markets slided to around 3.5% to -ve. Now can some one tell me where is the theory that If the worlds are doing good our markets will also do good and vice versa. There is no such kind of theory in the market. It is just the perception of the market players to take risk at what levels.

==>> Partial book profits

Nifty opened with a gap. Spot Nifty rallied till 5019. At this juncture investors should definitely book partial profits. Sensex rallied from the low of 15300 levels to 16680 levels within 3 days. According to me this is the right time to book profits. Investors will get opportunity to buy again at the lower levels.

==>> Run for your shorts

The fed said in a statement in Washington that it plans to make upto $200 bn available through weekly auctions.This is the most significant step the Ded has taken so far. This step indicate that the Fed is increasingly concerned about the investor exodus from mortgage debt, which threatens to deepen the housing constraction and the economic slowdown. World markets have surged 2-3%, on back of this steps.

Y'day i have clearly informed that our mkts will see some good rally even though the worlds markets are in Red. Our markets opened in red but in the early hours we saw some good short covering, and as mentioned that the Nifty can easily go upto 4950-5000 levels. There is good resistance at 5000 levels. We may see some fresh shorts at those levels.

Rural Eletrification Co. Ltd Listing on Wednesday. Strategy good. Grey market premium 15-20Rs.

Nifty support is the same. Resistance at 4950-5000.

BUY Rpl, Shivaani oil, Gss america above 555, Sesagoa, IRB, Bgr Energy.

==>> Nifty closed at 4800.4

It is not the right time to comment on the end of the downtrend. As the Nifty is still in the Lower top and Lower Bottom pattern and to break that formation the Nifty close should be above 5400. The shortest moving average is trying to cut the longest moving average in my chart. That can be a sign of worry. But if it takes support from there then the rally could be up to 4950-5000.

Nifty support is at 4630-4640 & 4450.

Resistance at 4800-4950-5000.

In the morning I have clearly mentioned that we might see some pull back in out markets, as Nifty took support at 4630. It is a long-term trend line support from 2006 onwards. You can clearly see in the chart that today Nifty took support at the same trend line and the close is well above the trend line. Nifty still had a good resistance at 4800, But closed at 4800.40.

Yesterday Sensex made a double Bottom at 15300 but the Nifty is still very far from its previous low.

In the morning I have posted one massage about the increase in the circuit levels of the “B” group shares. Due to this action many “B” group shares which were locked at the lower 5% circuit and now locked at 10 % lower circuit. Retail investors who are trapped in these scripts are loosing money much faster. On the other hand some scripts were out of the lower circuits also. In the hope of earning fast I think that all the markets operator will be back in action. But if the downtrend continues the retail clients will be screwed up big time. I really could not find a good reason for this step, at this juncture. I hope the operators are back into action.

==>> Nifty support at 4630

Nifty spot trading at 4636.
In such a Bad maraket, Circuit levels of many B group scripts have been increased from 5% to 10%. Why is that so?? Is the Sebi trying to bring in the operators to run the scripts or they are trying to killing the remainig retail clients also.....

Nifty long term Trend line support acc to me is near 4630. The close below this will pull down Nifty till 4450.Intraday low below 4630 shld be taken into consideration. close above or below that levels shld be taken into consideration. We might see some pull back............

==>> Nifty trading below the major support levels.

Nifty presently trading below the major support levels of 4800. If the close is above 4800 then we might see come relief in the markets. Nifty now have a support at 4670, otherwise 4450 will be achieved within few days.

==>> Nifty took support at 4800

Nifty immediately after opening slided in the negative zone till 4849, but today the bulls were on the front seat. There was some fresh buying and some short covering till 4915,because of the good support at 4800. Bears again tried to trap the Bulls by fresh shorts and the Nifty again tanked till 4849. But at 4849 Nifty made a double bottom and the rally continued till 4936.65. Today’s market session was highly volatile.

Since last 2 consecutive days Nifty is taking support at 4800 levels that proves that this is the “Father of all support’s”. Short covering in Nifty can be till 4950-5070-5200. Support still remains the same. Watch out for these crucial levels.

==>> NIfty at a very crucial levels 4800

Today Nifty opened flat and we saw some rally till 4976.7. Investor thought that, after such a trauma that happened a day back, there could be some relief rally today. But the Nifty within minutes of the opening slipped in the negative zone.

As mentioned earlier on 03/03/08 that the Nifty has a good support at 4800 levels. You can see that the Nifty made a low of 4812.95, which is very close to the support level mentioned. I have also mentioned that the close below 4800 can take Nifty to 4450. Nifty bounced back from 4812.95 levels and there was good short covering in mid hours. Due to the short covering Nifty rallied till 4950, but closed at 4864.25.

In the today’s leading paper, I read an article about; Mr. Warren Buffet discussing about the scary Subprime losses in US of nearly $600 bn. Initially it was estimated at $400 bn. Losses, which has incurred by major Financial Institutions will surely take a lot of time to heal.

To be named some, Citi Group, UBS, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, HSBC, etc.. The black clouds are not only on these banks, even some of the Indian Banks too have big exposure to credit derivatives. Credit derivatives are instruments for which the underlying asset is a loan or a bond. Marking to market means valuing a portfolio based on the prevailing market price.

ICICI Bank has the highest exposure of $1.5 billion. SBI has an estimated exposure of $1 billion, BOI of $300 million, and BOB of $150 million. About 5-10 per cent of this figure could be the losses that these banks could incur.

Subprime crisis can come in India also.

In todays paper Warren buffet talking about a scary sub prime loss of around $600 Bn in US. Even in India this scenario can come, But right now i am not able to tell how deep it can be. But there are positive chances of the subrpime losses for our India Banks too. be cautious in the banking sector. many Brokerage houses coming out with buy reports on Banks and Real Estate co.
I would rather tell investors not to Buy any bank and the Real estate co.

==>>Nifty support at 4800

History repeats itself….. Nifty opened in the negative zone on back of world markets. On Friday, I have mentioned that the trend will be cleared within 1-2 days.

PLEASE READ MY EARLIER BLOG POSTED ON 22nd FEB 2008.

Investors can refer to the message, which was posted on 22^nd Feb 2008, in that I have clearly mentioned that till the time the nifty close is not above 5400 “NO TEJI”. ON 21^st of Feb 2008 I have also mentioned that the close below the “Support” trend line, can pull down the Nifty till 4800 levels. And as per the Lower top and lower Bottom formation the Nifty can tank till 4800 levels.

As mentioned earlier that the “Support” & the “Rest” trend line in very crucial level to decide about the trend in Nifty. In today’s chart investors can easily see that the Nifty close is well below the ”Support” trend line. As soon as the “Support” trend line was broken there was a huge sell off in the market. As a result Nifty closed at 4953.

Nifty 23.8 % retracement level from 6357 & 4448 is at 5177 and my convergence of “Support” and “Rest” trend line is almost at the same level. So there was double confirmation of the Nifty moving either side. Bears took the front seat and dragged the Nifty down till 4953 levels.

The next and the major support are at 4800 levels. I had also mentioned that the close below 4800 levels could bring the Nifty to the 4450 levels also.

==>>Nifty at 5050

Nifty presently at a major Support of 5050.. Nifty future trading at 4997, buy with SL of 4975

==>> Budget Special

Being an election year, as expected, the FM came out with a Budget that can be rated as "socially relevant" one. The stock market is extremely unhappy with the Budget right now. The increase of short term capital gains tax from 10% to 15% has most certainly hurt the sentiments. Moreover, there has been no clarification from the Finance Minister about the exact tenure of the term “short term”. This ambiguity has added on to the bearish sentiments.

Corporate tax, surcharge and dividend tax remained untouched, but also did not helped.

The BUDGET HIGHLIGHT has been posted.

As mentioned that the Nifty has good support at 5200-5176, and the close is well above 5176. The fall was due to the bad sentiment and due to the non clearance of the short term capital gains. As mentioned that the trend will be cleared within1-2 days, if the Nifty close is above 5290 then the rally can be up to atleast 5400.
The Nifty has a good support at 5176-5050.

Budget Highlights

1. Dividend Distribution Tax unchanged at 15%
2. Central Sales Tax cut to 2% from 3% - Positive for Food Processing companies –
3. India to start GST from April 1, 2010
4. No Change in STT Rates
5. To withdraw banking cash transaction tax from April 1, 2009
6. To give 5 Year Tax Holiday for Hotels in some areas
7. Increase in short term capital gain tax from 10% to 15%
8. On an income of Rs5 lakhs - savings amount to Rs45,000
9. To grant 5 year tax holiday for new hospitals to be setup in specified areas - +ve for Apollo Hospital, Fortis etc.
10. Weighted deduction of 125% for R&D – Buy on Ranbaxy Labs and Dr Reddy Labs
11. Major Income tax Changes - to boost consumer spending Buy Marico and GSK Consumer
12. No change in corporate tax rate and no change even in surcharge
13. In case of Women, Exemption limit increased to Rs1,80,000
14. Senior citizen exemption raised from 1,95,000 to 2,25,000
15. Proposes to increase personal income tax exemption limit to Rs1,50,000
16. Minimum relief Rs4000 for every assesse
17. Excise duty on bulk cement imposed at Rs400/tonne or 14% Ad valorem whichever is higher - Neutral for Cement companies
18. Customised software under service tax net
19. Higher excise on packaged software (8% to 12%) - Negative for Software sector
20. To tax Filter and Non Filter Cigarettes on Par - Marginally negative for ITC
21. Fall in duty on wireless data cords from 16% to Nil - Positive for Telecom Sector
22. No change in excise duty structure on Retail Cement
23. To cut excise duty on all goods in Pharma from 16% to 8% - Positive for Pharma Sector
24. To cut excise on some papers, paper products
25. To reduce excise duty on two wheelers from 16% to 12% Buy Bajaj Auto
26. To reduce excise duty on small cars from 16% to 12% Buy Maruti and Tata Motors
27. To reduce General CENVAT rate from 16% to 14%
28. To cut customs duty on crude, unrefined sulphur
29. To cut project import duty to 5% from 7.5%
30. Custom Duty reduced to Nil on Steel melting scrap from 5% - Positive for Non Integrated Steel Players
31. India to cut duty on certan bulk drugs to 5% - Positive for Pharma Sector
32. Proposes No Change in Peak Customs Duty
33. Current Tax-GDP ratio at 12.5
34. Fiscal Deficit to be 2.5% by FY09 - Need only 1 year to eliminate Revenue Deficit
35. Revenue Deficit to be 1.4% and Fiscal Deficit to be 3.1% of GDP
36. Planned Expenditure about 34.2% of total expenditure
37. - India to spend Rs 1.05Trn on Defense sector, up 10% - Positive for Defense Companies
38. Allocation for TUF loan hiked about 20% - +ve for Textile Sector
39. Thrust on Smart Cards Buy on Bartronics India
40. Accelerating bidding process for 5 UMPPs - +ve for PFC
41. Likelky Subvention of agri loans waivers to neutralise impact on banks
42. Government allocates RS16.8bn for IT Sector Buy on 3i Infotech and TCS
43. India to spend more on Textile Sector - Buy on Bombay Dyeing and Alok Ind
44. India to get as much as $8bn from latest Gas, Oil
45. India to allocate Rs129 bn for highways Buy on HCC,IVRCL
46. National Fund for Power Transmission and Distribution
47. To award 4th UMPP shortly - +ve for Power
48. India to achive power expansion target in 11th plan - +ve for Companies like BHEL
49. Waiver of previous loans and fresh loans - Positive for Agriculture/ Fertiliser companies
50. India to spend more on Rural Development and Roads - Positive for Infrastructure sector
51. Manufacturing slowdown due to rising rates and rupee
52. Growht in capital goods still high at 20.2%
53. Savings Rate at 35.6% and Investment Rate at 36.3% by end of 2008
54. Total value of overdue loans including OTS at Rs60,000cr
55. Debt Waiver to be completed by June 30 2008 - Farmers to be eligible for fresh loans post waiver
56. Clarity awaited on details of scheme regarding reimbursement to banks of waiver amounts
57. Waiver Amounts to 4% of Total Bank
58. - Scheme of debt waiver of all agri loans upto March 2007 - Negative for Banking Sector
59. - FM eyeing Elections - Slew of populist measures announced
60. Complete waiver of loans for marginal and small farmers
61. Government introduces scheme for debt waivers for
62. FM says fertiliser subsidy to continue
63. 5 lac hectare increased irrigation potential
64. India to spend Rs200bn on irrigation-Positive for Finolex Ind and Jain Irrigation
65. Government to spend additional Rs120bn on 5-Yr plan programs
66. Government increases thrust on santitation - s Buy Electrosteel Castings
67. Increase in sanitation allocation positive for DI pipe makers such as Electrosteel castings
68. Increased allocation to Rajiv Gandhi Drinking water scheme to Rs7300cr from Rs6500cr, beneficial to companies like IVRCL
69. Increased spending on polio to benefit Panacea Biotech
70. India to spend Rs120bn on National Rural Health Plan
71. Education and Health Sector to be twin pillars of growth
72. 16,534cr allocated for Health Sector an increase of about 15%
73. Additional allocation for education beneficial for Everonn, Educomp, Core Projects, NIIT etc
74. India to increase spending on Bharat Nirman plan
75. Allocation for education to be raised to Rs34,400cr from Rs28,674cr
76. Allocation for education to be increased by 20%
77. India to increase Gross Budgetary support in FY09
78. Agriculture estimates to grow at 2.6% for FY08
79. FM confident of maintaining 8.8% GDP growth average
80. FM says agri growth disappointing