==>> Nifty closed below the REST trendline

Today Nifty closed below the "REST" trend line but finally took support exactly near my long term trend line. Nifty had a good support at 4800 but could not hold on to that due to lack of buying interest. I had given a buy call of Nifty at 4825 with sl of 4795. SL triggered. As in the last blog i have mentioned that the Nifty is trying to make a head and shoulder pattern. From here we will see some reversal.. If the Nifty turns around from here then it can easily touch 4950-5200 levels. Nifty for the completion of the head and shoulder pattern can come down till 4680. Nifty close should not below 4600, otherwise the doors are again opened till 4450. This could be the extreme case, and this could not be rulled out. 40DMA have also cut the 200 DMA from up to down. This could be the exterme case. The next levele can only be decided after 1-2 trading sessions. Keep both the levels in mind. Upside trend me more likely to trigger. So investors and traders can again buy at lower levels with the SL of 4600.

==>> Nifty weekly close above previous week for the first time in last 10 weeks

Inflation as mentioned will be high. Presently it is at 6.68% from 5.92 last week. But why did not our markets react this time on such a great jump in the inflation numbers???? On 240308 I have mentioned about the perception of the human beings and people talking about 3500 in Nifty when it was trading at 4600. It is just that there were no buyers in the market, so our markets were over reacting. At 21000 Sensex, there were 90% bulls and at 16000 levels there were 90 % bears. That is the time when the markets turn around. And on the same day I have mentioned that the Nifty has a very good support at 4450 and it wont go below this levels, till the time any bad news follow in our market.
Nifty weekly close is at 4942 well above 4750, which was the last weeks close. After 10 weeks of harsh selling, Nifty for the first time closed above the previous weeks high. Nifty has made higher top and a higher bottom pattern in the weekly chart. In the daily chart, Nifty has made an inverted head and shoulder pattern.

==>> 280308

Nifty has a good support at 4750. Weekly close should be above that for further upward movemenent. Inflation will be more then the previous week. Market expectation is that there will be some rate sut in the market, but acc to me if the inflation is to be controlled then the only option is to keep the rate unchanged or increase the rates................

==>> Nifty closed below 10DMA

Yesterday we saw that the Nifty has a good resistance at 4900-4950 levels. Yesterday Nifty opened at 4878 had some upward movement till 4912 but again tanked down till 4800 levels. 4800 levels been a good support and the resistance levels. Nifty 10DMA is at 4879, and the same is proved to be a good resistance levels. Till the time this level is not broken the Nifty upward movement is locked. Nifty weekly closed should be above 4750 only for the up trend.

==>> Short covering helped the rally

Today we saw great short covering in the large cap shares and even in Nifty future, that lead to a fantastic rally in our markets. This rally is one of the few intra day rally in our markets. On Monday i have clearly mentioned that investors should start buying, at least 15-20 % of the portfolio size. It was well informed on 18th March that the Nifty will definately take support at4450 ant the bounce back will be till 4900 levels. Congratulations for all the investor who bought at the lower levels and are still holding. Yesterday i have written that the nifty has a resistance at 4650-4700, and if it crosses then it will directly take the nifty till 4900 levels.

Further correction is still not rulled out as the wound that was happened is very deep and it is not so easy to heal. It will take some more time. We may see some more correction, but that won't be so severe. Inflation is still the concern in India.

Real estate prices have started correcting. In Banglore, Hyderabad the prices have come down by 10-15 %. This is the time for the Long term investors, and they should start investing in the markets. At least 15-20 % should be invested at the current levels. When the markets were at all time high people were talking about 6500 in Nifty and 23000 for Sensex, and suddenly the view changed drastically and the same people started commenting that nifty will be 3500 and Sensex below 10000...... WOW....... Till the time the support according to me is not broken, i will not comment on this....

Today we saw great short covering. Nifty also crossed and closed above one of the major resistance levels of 4800. Volumes were also very good. Please do not expect "V" shaped rally in our markets, as the investors, operators or the traders are still not confident about the market trend. Even the smallest bad news can create panic in our markets. Kindly buy only the good fundamental scripts and with a minimum investment period of 1 yr. Traders are adviced to keep their over night positions light.

==>> Nifty resisistance at 4650

Nifty closed at 4609 up 36 points and Sensex at 15289 up 295 points, thanks to global markets. Dow and nasdaq closed in red on wednesday, but saw a great rally on the last day of the week. Gold, silver nad crude have corrected, acc to me there are still more chances that the prices can correct. Our markets have already corrected around 29 % from the top. Few days back i have mentioned that the investors should start investing atleast 15-20 % of their portfolio size at the current prices, but the minimum investment period should be of 1 yr. The carnage that has been done cannot be regained so easily.
Nifty has a resistance at 4650 - 4700 levels. Today we saw some short covering in Nifty. Major lossers---- REAL ESTATE STOCKS....... Informed well in advance to stay away from the sector, even if the markets turns around.............

==>> Holi Speciallllllllllll

The Financial Sector and the real estate sector were once the darling counter's of every traders and investors. As mentioned earlier stay away from these sectors. Stocks like DLF, Purvankara, Omaxe, Ivr prime, HDIL, Unitech, Orbit have been in the roller coaster ride since the start of the current calender year. New entrance like BPTD, Oberio's and Uppal Group are thinkin about their entry in this scenario of the the market. DLF and Unitech have postponed their planned listings on international Exchanges. They will see some Bounce back when the markets turns around.

Today traders had a good time while trading. Nifty bounced back till 4618 from 4519, thanks to the global markets and a very good support at 4450. nifty will face a stiff resistance at4600-4750-4800. The pattern formation in the nifty chart which was made near 6350 levels clearly suggested that the Nifty will fall.The candle stick that was made today tells that there will be good bounce back tom till 4600-4750-4800 levels. But if the Nifty slips tom below 4450 then the fall could be till 4250, which according to me is rulled out temporarily.

Investors with 1 year prospective should invest around 15-25 % of the portfolio size at the current prices. Us mkts bounced back on the back of the excellent numbers announced by Goldman Sachs & lehman brothers. We have a long week end, so i would suggest traders to book profits in the late hours.

Advance Decline decline ratio on a monthly average basis have fallen to the 15 yr low in the current month. AD ratio as the name suggests is the ration of the stocks that gain ground to the number of declines . In the other words, lower the ratio higher the number of stocks that are loosing ground. The ratio is at low of 31:11. Three months ago the ratio was as high as 65:29. There have not been any occassions in the last 15 yrs when the ratio has come so dangerously close to the 30 mark. Check out for the ratio. If the Markets have to pull back, then th AD ratio also have to improve.
Holi hai.........

==>> Nifty good support at 4450

As i have mentioned that the Nifty has closed below the long term trendline and the shortest moving average cutting the long term moving average from up to down, can be fatal for our markets. one more thing i have mentioned that the Sensex had made fresh low as compared to the low which was made on 22nd Jan, and the Nifty will also come to test the low of 4450 that was made on 22nd Jan.
Yesterday Sensex tanked till 14738 and Nifty also followed the slide till 4482. Nifty will definately find good support at4450 till the time more bad news flow in our markets. Yesterday bank stocks and the Real sectors were worst affected, as mentioned earlier also, 'STAY FROM THE BANK AND REAL ESTATE STOCKS'. Investor should starting pouring money in our markets. Investors should invest their 15-20% of the portfolio at the current prices with the view of atleast 9-12 months.
Today markets will bounce back as the global markets are also in green or flat. Traders should buy Nifty with the SL of 4450 in spot Nifty..........

==>>Fed meeting & Short covering helped Nifty gain some recovery

In my yesterdays message about the markets I have mentioned that, some of the patterns in the Nifty are showing weakness. Our markets are behaving like a candle flame. It moves in either direction very fast. I have mentioned that the close below 4620 can be proved fatal and the Nifty could fall down till 4450. In the last paragraph I have clearly mentioned in the bold letters that the Nifty has a good support at 4600 levels and people should buy RPL, Reliance and ICICI bank for short term, and the Nifty close will not be below 4620. I had given some buy calls of Nifty that really proved lucky to my clients. I had posted one of the buy call in the morning. My private clients earned around Rs.250 in Nifty future as compared to the increase in 135 points in Nifty spot.

This is the second time the Nifty has taken support at 4600. Yesterday the low of Nifty was 4580, but the close was still above 4620. So the close below 4620 can be fatal. The only point to worry is now is that the Nifty’s & Sensex new low. Today nifty bounced back and closed above my long-term trend line. This will not be the right time to comment on the markets, as our markets are more dependent on the global cues. Nifty has a resistance at 4750-4800.

Major event this weekend- Fed meeting to decide of rate cut. According to me the cut will be in the range of 0.75% to 1.00%.

As I have mentioned that the Inflation this week will be definitely higher than the previous week. It is at 5.11 vs 5.02.

In the early hours of the markets the discount between the Nifty future and Nifty spot was around Rs.20 but as soon as the markets opened after the sun outage time the Nifty future started showing strength and in the late hours Nifty future was in premium, that gave the positive sign.

The Nifty put prices of 4500-4600 came down due to selling pressure and the short covering in the call writing helped the Nifty gain 122 points and Sensex 403 points.

We need to still wait for the clear trend before commenting on the market.

Book profits

Book mega profits in Nifty future at 4680. within minutes profit of Rs. 78.

==>> nifty tryin to take good support at 4600

Nifty is trying to take good support at 4600 Buy Nifty spot with the SL of 4600 spot nifty. Future price trading at 4602

Nifty closed below the Long term trend line

Gold prices hit the 1000$/oz mark. Crude prices have hit the all time high of 111$. US governance hinted that there could be halt in the written downs of the losses incurred due to subprime crisises. Us markets closed in positive, marginally. Us employment data shows no change at 3.53 lakhs.
Yesterdays fall was due to melt down in the international markets and the week IIP data announced a day before.
I have clearly mentioned on wednesday that the formation of the Nifty chart clearly indicates that the Bulls have lost control over the markets and surrendered in front of the bears. You can clearly see the Nifty plunging down to 4580 from the open of 4868.7. I have mentioned that the Nifty support is at 4650-4620. Close below 4620 can pull Nifty down to 4450. It tried to settle down near 4650, there were tremendous short covering at those levels. I had given a buy call call on Nifty future with a strict SL of 4620 in Spot Nifty. But the market plunged again, due to the week opening of the Asian markets. Yesterday nifty made a new low of 4580 since23rd Jan . Sensex made a new low of as compared to the January fall. But in the closing hours we saw very smart recovery in Nifty future and the Nifty closed above the 4620 levels.
One more thing i have mentioned that the lower top and lower bottom formation in the Nifty chart is a point to be worried about. Yesterday the Nifty made a lower bottom at . The present trend shows weekness. View is still bearish, but the clear trend will be decided within a day or so. NIfty close is below my long term trendline.
In the previous blogs i have clearly mentioned that investors should stay away from the banking & Real Estate sector. These sectors will be badly hurt when the markets come down. There could be some more losses to our banks also due to the subprime. High interest cost and high real estate prices have lead to decrease in the demand for real estate. The real estate prices have increased 3 folds as compared to the increase in income of individual.
This week Inflation will be high as compared to last week.
There has been a tremendous increase in the OI in Nifty4500-4600 puts. There is good short built up yesterday. Till the time the shorts are not covered the markets are tend to be week. Nifty will take a good support at 4600 levels. Traders can take a risk buy buying with the SL of 4600 nifty spot. The close will not be below 4620. Nifty has a rest at 4700-4750. buy RPL, RELIANCE, ICICI BANK FOR SHORT TERM...

==>> Mkts likely to bounce back from here

Nifty down by around135 and sensex by 415 points.
Acc to me the mkts shld bounce back from here. buy rpl, rnrl, ril in small qty... buy with a sl of 4670 nifty spot. strict SL
Nifty has a support at 4650-4620.

==>> Morning view

Markets are likely to open negative, previous rally was so far fuelled by short covering but now to extend the momentum, a fresh buying is required, which is, perhaps, not coming through at higher levels. If it crosses the resistance levels of 16600/5000 decisively then rally can gather momentum to take the indices to 17200/5125-5200 levels.

New lisiting today V guard. Book Profits. Dow and Nasdaq are in red on back of week dollar against the rest of world currency and all time high crude prices. Temperory relief by Fed cannot prevent the recession in America.

Look out for the Major levels. Good support at 15300-4600 levels. Likely to turn positive from these levels.