Since last few days the volumes in the Indian markets have been very lously. Volumes for both the Exchange are less then Rs10,000 Cr. It seems that DII's and even FII's are not having interest in the Indian markets. The Satyam still continues this week also. Major of the Satyam and the Maytas orders have been canceled. Major contracts on hold. Rumours in the mkts that, there may be many more companies in India that have been doing the same things. Real Estate company's books may under the scanner. Today there were rumours that Educomp is the company after that Satyam that have done the same thing. Unitech have rescheduled its loan amount. They are looking forward to raise new funds buy selling stake or their private properties or fresh loan. The funniest things is that they are raising money via loan to pay back the previous loan. How are they goning to make the payments. Sobha developers were in the news that the company is facing the financial crisis. No clarity has been so far from the management.
Technically the Nifty is taking goos support at the 2750 levels but the volumes are very very less. and 2850 levels seems to be a tough reisistance levels

==>> Real Estate tremour

Inflation for the week slips to 5.24% its lowest level since Feb 2008, for the week ended Jan 3rd on the back of sharp fall iin the prices of food articels and crude prices.
Major Leading news paper are writing that the Real Estate prices have fallen down to the 2004-2005 levels. Real estate companies are blaming the the Banks for the cause. According to me the actual prices have not yet fallen down. The only thing is stopped is that, the investors have stopped investing in this sector. Banks have cut down the intrest rate also, but that too very small % and only for the new takers. The borrowers who have taken loan way back are still paying heavy bank intrest. Crude prices have also fallen down on slidding down, even the production cut by the OPEC have not helped the prices to stabalise. The developers are raising unlimited money to pay back to the loan they have taken from the bank. Some of the leading developers to boost the sales and increase the demand, have started making low cost affordabel houses. They are unable to sell the property, according to me the, prices will slide down further.

[12:30] vishal_retail: Markets can boounce back from these levels, rnrl looking very strong, some bad news can be there in ICSA, stay away from this counter. sensex -371 points.

[13:08] vishal_retail: There was [problem in the US mkt as Nortel had filed for bankruptcy, so the US mkt fell down. In India only Sasken had the contract with the Nortel. Infy and Tcs has very less exposure to Nortel. Infosys during the bad time in US has posted great results, so i dont so i dont think so there is major problem in India. so i think so the mkts will see some pull back, sensex down by 325 points

==>> Choppy session with speculation in Mid caps

The markets were very volatile with some speculation is some of the mid caps liek Rolta fallinb by around 50%, BRFL by 30% etc. After the weak opening, markets rallied to make a high of 2802 in Nifty and 9261 in Sensex. In the mid session makets we saw slide in the market. Nifty made a low of 2720 and closed at 2758. Low of 8992 in Sensex and the close was 9101. Nifty close is above 2750, that has been proved to be a good support. Sensex after a long time made a low below 9000 levels, but closed above the same. As mentioned earlier that the Nifty has a resistance at 3150. Nifty on various occassion tried to close above 3150 like 04,05,10,11 Nov, 19,22 Dec, 05,06,07 Jan, but could not close above the same. In the last week the rally was interupted by Mr. Raju (Satyam). The Rs.7000 Cr fraud spoiled the party. We may see some pull back from this level. I have a buy call on the Nifty today in the closing session when the Nifty spot was trading nearly 30 points negative.
Crude prices are again at their 4 yr low nearly $35 per barrel on the back of lack of demand. Production cut by the Gulf countries have also not helped the crude to be stabalize. Infosys posted better than expected results with 33% rise in net profit. Market men expected that Infosys will report net decline in NP. Short positions were created on Monday.

==>> Traders day out

Today traders enjoyed the session. We saw nearly 200 points movement in Sensex. Indian markets closed the session on a mixed note with high volatility- the Nifty seen consolidating near 3100 levels. Pvt banking, metals, auto, oil marketing companies attracted good buyers. Volumes were also pretty good as compared to the few trading sessions in the past. We have rarely seen volumes of Nse cash above Rs 10,000 Cr. Last we have seen in the month of Dec and few trading session in Nov. Technically both Nifty and the Sensex are in the Bullish mode, But Nifty has a resistance at 3150 levels. In the last 2 traidng session Nifty tried to make new high of 3150 but failed and today it closed at 3128 after making a high of 3141. Yesterday Nifty closed above the above trendline (see chart), but facing resistance at 3150. break out above that is must, and above that nifty will touch 3250.
Few Short term calls given on Satyam at 131, Gmr at 74, Sail at 91, Ril at 1310, mercator at 31 etc.

In the last weeks blog i have mentioned that the Nifty is in the Bullish trend and it will find support at the lower trendline and resistace at the above trendline. On Monday Nifty bounced back from the low of 2812 and on Friday made a high of the week at 3079, near to the above trendline. Breakout through the above trendline and few close above that can take the Nifty to 3150-3200-3400 levels also. Not much was provided in the Stimuls package, and the same had been factored in the last week.

==>> Year 2008 Good for some, others feel like disaster

The Year 2008 ended with Sensex and Nifty closing down nearly 50-55% down from their all time high. Sensex high in the month of Jan was 21,113 and Nifty made a high of 6357. Global markets dropped like a pin. Indian markets have also felt the pain. In the carnage Sensex made a recent low of 7697 and Nifty2252 in the month of Oct. In the month of Dec FII remained Net Buyers. For the rest of the year they were Net sellers. DII remained net buyers for maximum period of the year. Month of Oct saw heavy redemption pressure from the local people. In the year 2008 crude price made a desparate move to make a all time high of $145per barrell, but in the same year it has fallen below the 2007 levels also. The volatility in the crude price was mainly due to the economic crisis globally and the cut in the production of the crude in the Oil producing countries. The fall was witness as the demand for the crude prices fell sharply in developed coutries. The Gold & Silver also touched their life time high levels. Gold was mostly preferred by the investor, as it was the only alternative for the money to be parked in. Realty prices also seen some sharp fall in the prices. Realty cos prices crashed in the equity markets. Prices have seen a fall of nearly 80-85%. Even the bestest of the best companies prices have fallen like the dead pin. In the month fo the Jan I have been reading many reports about those Constrution companies, the price target ws much more higher then the price in the month of Jan. The same Analsyt had become negative on the sector after few months. We have seen sharp fall in the share prices but the same was not witnessed in the real life in India. Realty prices have shrply fallen in the US because of the mortgage loans and other financial crisis. The year of 2008 have not been good year for some of the countries too. Many counties are in the recesssion. Many Financial institutions have been closed down, some have been taken over by the Govt or other Financial inst, many have gone bankrupt. Even the Automobile firms had to face the heat of the recession and the falling demand. Many countries have announced stimulus package for the bailout of the companies in the countries. Even Indian government have also announced stimulus package. Globally, rate cut have announced by the respective governments.
This writer apologises that he was not able to provide full information about the sharp correction in the Indian markets. But from the month of Feb, I have informed that the investors should not think of investing in the Real estate and Banking sector. From the month of Feb have we have seen a sharp fall in the share prices, on back of falling demand. In the year we saw rate cuts Globally. Some people say the year was good, and some felt like a disaster(pay cut, job cut).
DO COMMENT ON THE BLOG......

==>> High volatility seen in markets

Yesterday Nifty had taken a good support at the 2nd trendline, that was marked earlier. Nifty bounced back in the mid session after making a low of 2812 and close above 2929. As mentioned earlier that the Nifty has a good support at the trendline that is nearly 2800 levels. But in the 3rd chart we can see that the red line is trying to cross the yellow line from above, In the past we have seen that if this scenario happens then we may see some down trend in the markets. There are less chances of markets to come down, till the time it is staying above the yellow line.Keep ur positions light. Further move will be decided after the break out from both the trendlines. Trade with strict stop loss. Yesterday i have given call to buy Satyam at 131. The stock have outperformed the market. Imediately after the opening the stock was nearly 3% down, rallied to close at 148.25 after making a high of around 159.

The markets three week rally have been broken, with the BSE Index closing down nearly 7.63% or 770 points and the Nifty closing 7.16% down. None of the 30 index stocks made gains last week. I have mentioned on Friday 19th that we may see some correction coz the Nifty is trying hard to close above 3100 levels but not able to. In the last week we saw Sensex and Nifty falling by around 7.5%. See chart (marked by 1) the Nifty has fallen and closed below the 1st trendline. Nifty is taking support at the 2nd trendline (marked by 2). RSI has also been falling. We might see some more correction till 2800.
Short term del call 15 days, BUY SATYAM COMP, keep ur own stop loss cmp 131

==>> Japan, Germany, Canada unveils economic aid, while Belgian govt falls

Nifty opened week and slided in the neagative teritorry immediately. Nifty closed at 3039 after making a high & low of 3110 & 3027 respectively. Nymex crude bounced back sharply to cose above $42 per barrel. It was obvious that the automobile companies will be benefited from the bail out. As such the amount was not that big, it was like a peanut, when the US government ca provide nearly $800 bn bailout program then $14bn was nothing for them. Otherwise the closure of these units have created more unemployment for the the US.
As mentioned in my last blog also that we might see some profit booking or correction, in the coming week, coz the pattern that was created in the Nifty chart, showed some sign of correction. But the Nifty still have a good support at the trendline.
Japan, Germany & Canada [ledged new measures on Sat to confront a financial crisis in the banks, auto industry. Belgian govt also falls. Tokyo joined govts worldwide in pledging hundreds of billions of dollars of fiscal stimulus to lessen the impact of the crisis on their economies, many on which included, are already in recession. Total stimulus package amounts toY10tn. Canada also approves addtional package of $3.3bn.

Markets today had a very volatile session, Nifty and Sensex kept on trading from positive to negative zone. We might see some profit booking or correction as Nifty is trying hard to close above 3100. Nifty closed at 3077 after making a high of 3106. Nymex crude is trading near its 4 yr low of $33.5 per barrel.

Yesterday we had a great bounced back in our markets. Sensex after a over long break closed above 10000 levels. Nifty closed above at 3060. In the chart attachecd above we can clearly see, Nifty took good support at trendline. In the past also Nifty have take support of the same trendline and bounced back. Inflation has dropped down below 7% and the oil have also fallen below $40 per barrel. The fall in the inflation rate has been majorly due to the fall in the oil prices. Oil trading near 4 year low. Opec cut in the production have not helped to stablise the prices. Rupee have also bounced back sharply. Volumes were also pretty good as compared to the last months volumes

==>>FDI down 26%, Exice- customs down again

Since the start of Dec FII has been Net buyer for around Rs. 2,000 Cr as compared to Rs. 550 Cr in the same period last month. Yesterday since morning we saw a lacklusture market. But as informer earlier, we saw a great movements in the B group shares. Every 5th share was on the upper circuit. Sensex made a high of 10009 but failed to cross above the 10000 mark. Nifty closed at 3041 after making high of 3052. Rupee has also closed below 48 mark. When the rupee was trading near 50 there were many analyst predicted the the rupee to touch 53-55, the same have turned bullish and now they expect it to touch 45. Crude prices have been falling. FDI down 26% in Oct
Excise collections in Nov fell 15% year on year to rs. 8556 cr. This is the 2nd consecutive month when both excise and customs duty collections have been fallen.

==>> Home loans turn cheaper

Markets opened on the stronger note today. Nifty after a very long time traded above 3000 levels. Sensex made a high of 9948 and closed at 9832. Nifty and the Sensex both have a psychological resistance level at 3000 & 10000 levels respectively. Nifty target as in the near future given by me was 3200 and Nifty has a good resistance at 3152 levels.

From Tuesday all 28 state owned banks wil charge a concessional rate of 9.25% for loans below Rs.20 lakh and 8.5% for loans below Rs.5 lakh. The interest rate for micro industries has been cut by 100 bps, while for small and medium enterprises, it has been reduced by 50 bps. Both existing and the new customers will benefit from the move. But SMEs expected more rate cut.

Advance tax is less then expected. Indian Markets are not following the US markets, neither the US markets. In the last few trading sessions, our markets have outperformed the global markets.