Oils Not WELL with the Indian markets

Oil rose over $114 a barrel as fighting intensified in Libya, and OPEC said it saw no need to old an emergency meeting on ease supply fears. Heavy fighting in Libya had forced the shut down of one of its biggest refineries. The Zaiyah refinery is the biggest provider of gasoline in Libya, and has a total capacity of 120000 barrels per day. Finally at all this pain OPEC has decided to raise the oil output. Leading OPEC producer Saudi Arabia is already pumping more oil – upto 9 million barrels per day. The rise in the crude oil price will surely effect the Indian government who has done their Fiscal math. Oil marketing companies in India are already making a loss of around Rs.450Cr a day.

Spain has been downgrade once again. According to the estimate, Spain will need as much as Euro 50 bn ($ 69 bn) to meet new capital requirements. Spain has taken unprecedented measures to avoid following Greece & Ireland into a bailout, implementing the deepest budget cuts in three decades, As European leaders negotiate a reinforced rescue effort, Spain is tightening capital requirements for banks in a bid to show investors that its lenders can weather a 4^th year of economic slump. China reported an unexpected $7.3bn trade deficit, the biggest in seven year.

IIP data for the month of Jan is at 3.7% vs 1.6% in Dec. Manufacturing Rises 3.3%. Mining Output Rises 1.6% In January. Electricity Production Rises 10.5%. Consumer Goods Production Rises 11.3%. India’s exports jumped 50% in Feb. Indian crossed the $200bn target for the fiscal year. Inflation dropped down to its 3 month low at 9.52% as compared to 10.39% in the week before.

Crude at the start of the week continued its upward move but cooled down at the end of the week. Silver once again made its all time high of almost Rs.55000. Investors are still advice to buy Silver at all the levels.

Japan has been hit by one of the worst Tsunami’s in the recent times. Stock markets tanked in the late hours of the last session. Nifty and Sensex closed down nearly 2%. Oil & Gas sector indices was the only sector which managed to close in green by 1%. Rest of the Indices closed down in Red. Capital Goods, Metal & IT Index tanked nearly 3% each. Auto & Bankex closed down 2%.

Few midcaps had their jolly time on the brousers. Tata coffee jumped almost 50% in a single week. Oswal chem. Rallied 36%, while Apollo tyre surged 12%. Most of the frontline stocks tanked in the week leading to a fall in the Indian markets. Bpcl sinked 6.3%, Sbi 5%, Tcs -6%, Lnt & Maruti nearly 4%. Tata Stell 6, Bhel 5.5%. In the mid cap Educomp tanked the most by 11%, GVK 6.5%, Renuka by 3.8%.

The rally in the start of the week showed great strength and it felt the worst may be soon over. But the markets tanked on the last 2 session, Nifty closed down at 5445 levels. Nifty is trying really hard to close above its 50% retracement levels. It did close above the same for a day but the next day again the markets tanked that failed the consecutive close of the Nifty above the same. On the last day of the trading session Nifty closed just near to its 20DMA.

Nifty after making a low of 5177 on 11^th Feb bounced back sharply to make a high of 5608 in the last week. But again close down at 5445 levels. Close above its 50% retracement levels can prove to be good, but till that time the markets will remain bearish.

This Weeks Call

Short Andhra Bank below 134 SL 137.

Buy Asian Paint close above 2530 SL 2514.

Sell Bharti Air below 320 SL 326.

Sell Bhel with SL of 1973.

Buy Hdil close above 168 SL 165.

Buy Ongc above 285 SL 281.

Sell Tata Steel with SL of 595.