I am writing after a long time as was personally busy with my studies. Sorry for the same.
The las week has been very volatile. Global markets also showed some positive actions. Indian markets also saw the same reaction. Markets opened with a big bang on the much awaited economic stimulus package. Today on 081208 we again saw a bit of volatality. For the major of the session the Nifty and Sensex both was trading well above the 4%, but in the ending we saw a sharp decline. The Sensex which was around 350 points fell down sharply and closed down near 200 points only. It was majorly due to the news of fire broke out in reliance refinery. Ril which was trading well above nearly 2.5% fell down to just 0.5%. That was the only major news that pulled the Indian markets down.
Technically speaking, the markets have been in a very good mode. In the chart we can see that in the last week the Nifty has taken a very good support at the Trendline( marked by 1). We may see same movements in the future also for atleast 2-3 trading sessions. A dessive breakout above the trendline will take the Nifty above 3200 levels. Breakout below can take the Nifty again to 2700 levels. But looking at the chart positive movements are expected. RSI (marked by 2 ) has also been in the positive movements. Both the RSI and the Nifty daily chart has been moving in the same direction. Volumes (marked by 3) have also been good in the last few sessions. There is a positive trend in the markets.
The govt has been very busy through the last week, that resulted rate cut by RBI and economic stimulus package. This was followed up with a fiscal stimulus package on Sunday wherein its single most important move was reduction in the Central value added tax (Cenvat) by 4% across the board to boost demand. It also announced a Rs.20,000 crore additional non-plan expenditure to stimulate the economy. The aim of the fiscal measures is to bring back some life into the economy with a specific eye on boosting infrastructure growth, lift up the sagging exports, improve the beleaguered housing and auto sectors.
In the past also i have said that the Indian markets will outperform the global markets, as the Indain markets are not that much in red till now. The size of the stimulus package in India is not big coz India industries are not feeling that heat. Quaterly results of Oct- Dec will triger the movement further on.
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