==>> High volatility seen in markets

Yesterday Nifty had taken a good support at the 2nd trendline, that was marked earlier. Nifty bounced back in the mid session after making a low of 2812 and close above 2929. As mentioned earlier that the Nifty has a good support at the trendline that is nearly 2800 levels. But in the 3rd chart we can see that the red line is trying to cross the yellow line from above, In the past we have seen that if this scenario happens then we may see some down trend in the markets. There are less chances of markets to come down, till the time it is staying above the yellow line.Keep ur positions light. Further move will be decided after the break out from both the trendlines. Trade with strict stop loss. Yesterday i have given call to buy Satyam at 131. The stock have outperformed the market. Imediately after the opening the stock was nearly 3% down, rallied to close at 148.25 after making a high of around 159.

The markets three week rally have been broken, with the BSE Index closing down nearly 7.63% or 770 points and the Nifty closing 7.16% down. None of the 30 index stocks made gains last week. I have mentioned on Friday 19th that we may see some correction coz the Nifty is trying hard to close above 3100 levels but not able to. In the last week we saw Sensex and Nifty falling by around 7.5%. See chart (marked by 1) the Nifty has fallen and closed below the 1st trendline. Nifty is taking support at the 2nd trendline (marked by 2). RSI has also been falling. We might see some more correction till 2800.
Short term del call 15 days, BUY SATYAM COMP, keep ur own stop loss cmp 131

==>> Japan, Germany, Canada unveils economic aid, while Belgian govt falls

Nifty opened week and slided in the neagative teritorry immediately. Nifty closed at 3039 after making a high & low of 3110 & 3027 respectively. Nymex crude bounced back sharply to cose above $42 per barrel. It was obvious that the automobile companies will be benefited from the bail out. As such the amount was not that big, it was like a peanut, when the US government ca provide nearly $800 bn bailout program then $14bn was nothing for them. Otherwise the closure of these units have created more unemployment for the the US.
As mentioned in my last blog also that we might see some profit booking or correction, in the coming week, coz the pattern that was created in the Nifty chart, showed some sign of correction. But the Nifty still have a good support at the trendline.
Japan, Germany & Canada [ledged new measures on Sat to confront a financial crisis in the banks, auto industry. Belgian govt also falls. Tokyo joined govts worldwide in pledging hundreds of billions of dollars of fiscal stimulus to lessen the impact of the crisis on their economies, many on which included, are already in recession. Total stimulus package amounts toY10tn. Canada also approves addtional package of $3.3bn.

Markets today had a very volatile session, Nifty and Sensex kept on trading from positive to negative zone. We might see some profit booking or correction as Nifty is trying hard to close above 3100. Nifty closed at 3077 after making a high of 3106. Nymex crude is trading near its 4 yr low of $33.5 per barrel.

Yesterday we had a great bounced back in our markets. Sensex after a over long break closed above 10000 levels. Nifty closed above at 3060. In the chart attachecd above we can clearly see, Nifty took good support at trendline. In the past also Nifty have take support of the same trendline and bounced back. Inflation has dropped down below 7% and the oil have also fallen below $40 per barrel. The fall in the inflation rate has been majorly due to the fall in the oil prices. Oil trading near 4 year low. Opec cut in the production have not helped to stablise the prices. Rupee have also bounced back sharply. Volumes were also pretty good as compared to the last months volumes

==>>FDI down 26%, Exice- customs down again

Since the start of Dec FII has been Net buyer for around Rs. 2,000 Cr as compared to Rs. 550 Cr in the same period last month. Yesterday since morning we saw a lacklusture market. But as informer earlier, we saw a great movements in the B group shares. Every 5th share was on the upper circuit. Sensex made a high of 10009 but failed to cross above the 10000 mark. Nifty closed at 3041 after making high of 3052. Rupee has also closed below 48 mark. When the rupee was trading near 50 there were many analyst predicted the the rupee to touch 53-55, the same have turned bullish and now they expect it to touch 45. Crude prices have been falling. FDI down 26% in Oct
Excise collections in Nov fell 15% year on year to rs. 8556 cr. This is the 2nd consecutive month when both excise and customs duty collections have been fallen.

==>> Home loans turn cheaper

Markets opened on the stronger note today. Nifty after a very long time traded above 3000 levels. Sensex made a high of 9948 and closed at 9832. Nifty and the Sensex both have a psychological resistance level at 3000 & 10000 levels respectively. Nifty target as in the near future given by me was 3200 and Nifty has a good resistance at 3152 levels.

From Tuesday all 28 state owned banks wil charge a concessional rate of 9.25% for loans below Rs.20 lakh and 8.5% for loans below Rs.5 lakh. The interest rate for micro industries has been cut by 100 bps, while for small and medium enterprises, it has been reduced by 50 bps. Both existing and the new customers will benefit from the move. But SMEs expected more rate cut.

Advance tax is less then expected. Indian Markets are not following the US markets, neither the US markets. In the last few trading sessions, our markets have outperformed the global markets.

Inflation for week-ended November 29 is at 8% versus 8.4% (WoW). Yesterday global markets were also good. In the morning Indian markets also opened up strong but immediately after the opening Nifty and Sensex both were trading in red. Todays session was very volatile. We did see a sharp movements in the frontline stocks like RIL, SBI, Infosys. In the closing session markets recovered on the news of additional stimulus package for the Indian Economy. Fall in the crude price have really helped in the GDP of India. US job less claims hits a 26 year high. Jobless claims for the week ended Dec 6, was 5,73,000.

==>> Nifty closes above 2900 and Sensex above 9600 levels

As mentioned earlier that the Nifty chart is showing good strenght and there will be rally. Today markets opened on a strong note. Both Nifty and the Sensex opened positively and the rally contiuned. Sensex closed up around 492 points and Nifty by 144. Nifty made a high of 2937.3 and while Sensex crossed 9600 levels.Some follow-up buying was also seen in commodity stocks due to government's fiscal stimulus package, which was announced on Sunday. Strong Asian markets was another reason for today's rally. US markets futures also jumped up on hopes of tentative auto rescue package.
Volumes were also good as compared to yesterday. Nifty's cash volumes were Rs.9400 crs. and today it was Rs. 11500 crs. Few weeks back also i have informed me that the traders can bet on the reality and the banking stocks.

==>> Economic Stimulus package gives a boost to market

I am writing after a long time as was personally busy with my studies. Sorry for the same.

The las week has been very volatile. Global markets also showed some positive actions. Indian markets also saw the same reaction. Markets opened with a big bang on the much awaited economic stimulus package. Today on 081208 we again saw a bit of volatality. For the major of the session the Nifty and Sensex both was trading well above the 4%, but in the ending we saw a sharp decline. The Sensex which was around 350 points fell down sharply and closed down near 200 points only. It was majorly due to the news of fire broke out in reliance refinery. Ril which was trading well above nearly 2.5% fell down to just 0.5%. That was the only major news that pulled the Indian markets down.
Technically speaking, the markets have been in a very good mode. In the chart we can see that in the last week the Nifty has taken a very good support at the Trendline( marked by 1). We may see same movements in the future also for atleast 2-3 trading sessions. A dessive breakout above the trendline will take the Nifty above 3200 levels. Breakout below can take the Nifty again to 2700 levels. But looking at the chart positive movements are expected. RSI (marked by 2 ) has also been in the positive movements. Both the RSI and the Nifty daily chart has been moving in the same direction. Volumes (marked by 3) have also been good in the last few sessions. There is a positive trend in the markets.
The govt has been very busy through the last week, that resulted rate cut by RBI and economic stimulus package. This was followed up with a fiscal stimulus package on Sunday wherein its single most important move was reduction in the Central value added tax (Cenvat) by 4% across the board to boost demand. It also announced a Rs.20,000 crore additional non-plan expenditure to stimulate the economy. The aim of the fiscal measures is to bring back some life into the economy with a specific eye on boosting infrastructure growth, lift up the sagging exports, improve the beleaguered housing and auto sectors.
In the past also i have said that the Indian markets will outperform the global markets, as the Indain markets are not that much in red till now. The size of the stimulus package in India is not big coz India industries are not feeling that heat. Quaterly results of Oct- Dec will triger the movement further on.

==>> $800 bn new bailout program

Fed have yet again announced new Resuce program of $800 bn to unfreeze credit for home buyers, comsumers and small businesses. The Central will purchase as much as $600 bn in debt issued by housing finance companies. And $200 bn will give a support to consumer and small business loans. If the worry is that will this be enough to solve the problems created in the US. If the major Financial services provider like Lehman, US top bank like CITI, automobile giant GM, can go bankcrupt, there could me many more like them. Rumors in the market, that BOA can be the next in the line for the Resuce help from the US govt. US housing prices are still falling. There will be more job losses in US. China is facing severe export losses. US was the major clinets for its exports. The Finanacial crisis in US have dropped the imports form China. India have been saved from this masacared, because the exports is very small compared to China.

==>> Pakistan gets IMF funding....

Smartest Financial service house has got a support from the US Govt of $326 bn. Citi has received US govt guarantees of $306bn that will help it sell the sticky assets and irrecoverable mortgages on its books and $20bn in cash. The International Monetary Fund approved a $7.6bn bailout package to help prevent Pakistan from defaulting on its debt. IMF Financing will help rebuild its foreign-exchange reserves which shrank 75% in a year to $3.5bn.
Oil prices bounced back by around 9%. Gold too should its shine. Dow Jones closed above at nearly4%, as mentioned that the Dow has a good support at 7500 levels. Nifty too can touch 3000 levels in the bounce back.

Yesterday we saw a nosedive drop in the US markets. Dow fell down to its 5 yr low and Nasdaq at its 6 yr low. S&P fell the most at 11 yr low. Dow Jones has a support at 7500 levels, as we have seen the Dow bouncing back at the same levels after the 9/11 incident. US Umployement claims increased by 20,000. Crude fell down at 48$ per barrel.
Rupee is rushing towards 51.

==>> Inflation fears

I just read an article in the leading news paper named " Subprimes's dad? Deflation will be worst..."
Yes thats very true. Almost all the major developed countries have falled in the recession. Now its time for the Japan to get in to the news.
Japan's exports declined at the fastest pace in almost in seven years in Oct on back of global financial crisis. Imports climbed 7.4 percent, causing a trade deficit of 63.9 billion yen ($666 million), the third shortfall this year. Crude prices have been fallen and it is almost at the jan 2007 levels. This will give some breather to the oil companies in India. But the same could be a problem for the Arab countries, as they are tryin hard to keep the prices stable. They had cut down the production to keep the price at 100$ per barrel, but the price kept on falling as there is unexpected rise in crude inventory in US.
Sobha developers have reduced prices by 8% for their major projects. WOULD THEY BE ABLE TO SELL NOW?? This questions is still there in the minds of everyone. No they will not be able to... Genuine buyers will wait for atleast price depreciation by 35-40%. and that is possible. Mkt capital of DLF is around Rs. 9000 Crs. but their debt is around Rs.14700 Crs.
Rupee has been falling like crazy on the speculation that the FII's are in rush to withdraw their money from India.

The Govt has imposed 5% import duty on some iron and steel products and a 20% duty on crude soyabean oil. This will make the import costlier and will help the domestic industry sell their products without much of competition. But that will surely depend on the demand. Demand for the real estate are drastically down. This has lead to slowdown in the real estate and connected sectors with the same. Constantly in the Last few months this blog has been informing the reader that no investment should be made in the Real estate and Banking stocks, as these will be the worst performer in this year. Real estate prices have not yet come down. Off Diwali, the Developers have tried to stabalise the price, but seeing fall in the demand. Major steel companies have been reducing their output. Demand for the vehicles have also been coming sown. Honda have managed to sell some 230 odd Hybrid cars at Rs.8 lacs, which was previously priced at Rs.24 lacs.

RBI have tried to provide enough liquidity in the market.

==>> Mkts in a Roller coster ride

Yesterday Globally, equity markets were in the red India have been the worst performer in Asia. Indian markets tanked nearly 7%. Sensex closed at 9839 and Nifty closed below at 2938.
In the UK, home sales fell to a near 30-year low, due to the tight credit conditions. China reported the slowest export growth in the last 17 month. In Japan export fell by 10% in first 20 days in Oct.
Export duty collections in India dropped down by 8.7%. Cutoms duties down by around 1%.

==>> China unveils USD 586 bn package

The Sensex rose 571.87 points or 5.74%, to close at 10,536.16, after hitting an intraday high of 10,570.58. The 50-share Nifty Fifty gained 175.25 points or 5.89%, to settle at 3148.25. It has hit a high of 3161.25.
It was a spectacular session for the markets. Positive global cues led by announcement of China's USD 586 billion economic stimulus package, helped benchmark indices to remain strong. However, volumes have been quite tepid at around Rs 44,000 crore. Metal sector was the leader in today's rally followed by power, capital goods, telecom, oil & gas and technology sectors. Midcap and small cap stocks were also in the limelight.
China will unveil a USD 586 billion economic stimulus package by 2010 that will be spent on upgrading its infrastructure, on land reforms and social welfare projects. The package is nearly 15% of China's GDP versus that of 1.2% during the Asian Crisis in 1998. China's GDP growth slowed to 9% in Q3CY08 versus 10.4% in H1CY08 and the Shanghai Composite Index had hit a 26-month closing low of 1,706.7 last week.
Major Asian markets posted strong rally. Shanghai closed higher by 7.27% and Nikkei jumped 5.81%. Hang Seng rose 3.52%. Straits Times and Kospi were up 1-1.6%. Jakarta and Taiwan ended flat.

BARAK OBAMA elected 44th President. IT stocks will be a cautious thing to be played with. As Obama is not in favour of out source. And one of the major sector that has been outsourced to India is IT, and the Rupee also bounced back US stocks raliied up. Us markets have closed above 3% each. SGX Nifty trading at 3230 levels.
Yesterday Rupee bounced back sharply from its recent low. Bank rate cuts on the card. Experts see Oil price rate cut also.

==>> RBI moves helped regained Equity market

Rbi moves have helped India markets to gain around 35% from the recent lows. The cuts in the CRR, Repo rate and the SLR have bought the investors back in the markets. The stability in the global markets has also led to the revival in the sentiment. Yesterday Sensex opened with a strong note and closed above 10,000 mark for the first time in last 2 months. Sensex saw a sharp recovery of 5.6% or 550 points. Good recovery seen in the Reality Index and the banking Index. FII's were net buyers of Rs. 365 Crs.

Technically Nifty has taken a good support at the trendline. Yes it closed below the trendline for 2 days, but the smart recovery was seen after that. Nifty has also bounced back from the oversold zone.

==>> Rs. 2.25 lacs injected by RBI by way of rate cuts..

Today market opened on the positive zone on back of rally seen in the US markets after the announcement of the 1% cut in the prime lending rate. China, Hongkong also announced the similar rate cut. Japan's Nikkei fell down by around 5% after not so expected rate cut. Japan announced 0.20% rate cut.
Indian markets opened strong with a gap. Inflation declined for the 5th consecutie week. Inflation for the week was at 10.68 %. Experts see inflation falling down till a single digit figure. Gold has been some selling pressure. Crude prices fell down again, worrying low demand from the emerging economies. Global markets have been in the green since last 2-3 days. Indian markets have misssed that rally on Thrusday. Sensex opened in the green with a gap and sharply rallied around 700 points. Market men ran to cover their shorts, that lead to rally 14% rally in the reliance. Hdfc & JP +17%, ICICI Bank +15%, Tata steel & tata power +13%...

To fight with the liquidity crisis RBI has cut down Repo rate by 50 bps, CRR by 100 bps & SLR by 100 bps. The cuts in the near past will inject round about Rs.2.25 lacs Crores into the system.

==>> Largest gain in Mahurat Trading

WISHING YOU A VERY HAPPY AND A PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR....

On Tuesday Indian markets saw a largest gain in the Mahurat Trading. Sensex rallied nearly 500 points to close above 9000 levels. Nifty closed at 2684. On Monday we saw a sharp recover in the markets. Reliance made a new low below 1000 but saw a sharp recovery. Yesterday in the mahurat trading reality index shot up nearly 10% followed by good rally in metal, power and capital goods. Valuations of the frontline stocks are very attractive. investors should invest nearly 25-30 %. Rupee is having a hard time now. Its trading below 50 per dollar. Crude prices are still not getting firm even after OPEC planned to cut down the production. Gold prices were firm on back of buying due to Dhanteras, but the prices will come off after some weeks.

US markets opened up firm and rallied up sharply nearly 900 points in Dow on back of Fed meeting which is shedule to meet on Thrusday. Traders belive that the Fed will cut rated by .50 basis points.

==>> Argentinas the next on the brinks

In the last few months there have been no stopages of bad news in the market. Americas financial sector crisis leading to many financial companies going bankrupt, take over of some banks. These crisis were not only seen in Amercia, but other countries also. But now the scenarios is changed a lot. Now the problem is not with the financial companies, but the COUNTRY itself....... Ireland running out of the cash reserves, it has debt 10 times more then its GDP. Problems are luring around Pakistan too. Now its time for the Argentina. The government planned to seize $29bn of private pension fund to service its debt obligations, fearing that the country is heading towards its 2nd default in 10 yrs.

Crude prices have fallen down to $66 per barrel, but the goverment is not planning to reduce to cut down the fuel prices in India. This is a provision to save the bleeding oil companies, who are finding it difficult to survive below the increasing subsidy burden. Yesterday we saw a major round of selling pressure in the banking and the real estate sector. Many companies are at their 52 week low. Real Estate sector is still facing heat due to very less buying intrest in the market. Builders are finding it very difficult to attract buyers even after providing them with free beeies, interiors, waiver of stamp duty and registration. They are facing liquidity problems as the banks also fear from lending money to them. Many companies are seeking foreign funds.
Gold prices have fallen down due to high price and lack of buyers. Gold prices will see a further fall in the prices. When saw a rally in the gold prices with the crude rally. Crude touced a high of around $145 per barrel and gold nearly Rs. 12000. But the crude prices have halfed to nearly $66, but gold prices are still at the top. Crude prices saw a fall in the fearing fall in demand from the developing countries. Gold should also see some further fall in the demand and the prices...

==>> Nifty support at 3000 levels

For the week ended 17/10/2008 Nifty closed at 3074. Previous weeks close was at 3279. In the last week Nifty made a high of 3648 and faced resistance at the 200 moving average at 3659. In the weekly chart, Nifty is trading well below the over sold zone. Nifty has a support at 3000 levels. It's gonna be a pshycological levels, where we will definately see good short covering. Sensex has a support at 9500 levels.

Korea govt agreed for a $130-b to rescue itself from the global recession.

==>> Comparision between US and Indian markets

US markets are at the brink of Recession. There are multiple problems in the US. Like Housing led, over leveraged, falling asset prices and many more. Consumer confidence is at a multi decade lows. GDP may turn to negative. Recovery in the US markets are likely to be so fast. It will take a long time to coupe up with all the pains it has suffered. According to me in India i dont think so that the pain is as severe as in the US. Indian banks have very less leveraged levels. The US financial firms have over leveraged positions by around 30-40 times. RBI should come up with more CRR cut to have significant liquidity in the market. This in trun will help the cut in the intrest rate. Inflation rate have also cooled off from the recent high to 11.44% for this week.

As mentioned in the morning note that our markets will bounce back. Sensex after pluging down nearly 650 points in the open trades. For most of the day sensex remained at the same level, but rallied sharply in the closing hours as soon as the inflation data was released. Inflation for the weekend stood at 11.44%. Indian markets will take support at these levels. We may see some consolidation here. In the Extreme case sensex may fall down to 9500 levels, thats an extreme case , acc to me.

==>> Indices tanked with dry volumes

Volumes were very dry yesterday. NSE cash volumes were Rs. 9748 Crs. as compared to Rs. 11845 Crs. the previous day. Volumes is BSE cash also saw a drop at Rs. 3581 crs. as compared to Rs. 4252 crs. Finally after the trading hours on Wednesday, the CRR was cut by 1% point to 6.5%, that will leave free Rs.40000 crore for lending. Previous rate and yesterdays rate cut would add to Rs. 1.25 lakh crore liquidity in the market. This will again help the financial firms to lend more money to the cutomers. SEBI has tightened the exposure margin norms in the derivatives segment. The cost of keeping the opening positions have gone up. This may prompt traders to square up the positions as they may have to shelve more for their open trades.

Nifty closed at 3338.4 after making a high of 3518. SGX Nifty trading at 3125 down nearly 200 points. Dow closed at 8577.91 down 733 nearly 8%. S&P closed down by 9%. Hangseng trading down nearly 7.5%, nikkei down by 9.71%.

==>> Indian MF's faces the heat of redemption

In the morning session, Indian indices openend and surged sharply but ended up lower on back of profit booking. Nifty closed lower at 3518 and Sensex clsoed below at 11410. Nifty has a resistance at 3700. Indian MF faces the heat of redemptions nearly Rs. 25000 has been redeem from the MF's in the month of Oct. Investors withdraw nearly Rs. 46000/- in the month of Sep.

US govt provides $250bn capital support banks. Us government will spend $250bn to take stakes in thousands of banks and financial firms. This step could probably help banks to lend more to the consumers. This could mark a new age in banking. $125bn will be provided to top financial firsm like Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan chase, Wells Fargo, ML, MS, BOA, Bank of NewYork. Dow Jones recovered in the closing session from the lows of around 210 points. Dow closed marginally in red by 76 points but Nasdaq Closed below, around 3 % nearly 65 points. Nikkei surged more than 14 % as the Japan govt unveiled steps to help its financial markets. Australian govt infuses nearly $7.4bn to boost economy, to protect it from global financial meltdown.

Dow up around 11%, Braxil index up by 15%. Nikkei up 13%, Hangseng up by 4%....... WHERE WILL OUR MKTS GO?????

Nifty has a good support at 3300 and will face resistance at 3500-3750 levels.

Today indices surged around 5-6%. Nifty opened at 3272 surged up sharply to make a high of 3510, closed nearly at the high of 3490. Sensex closed above at 11309.90. As i have mentioned that the Nifty has a good support at the -61.8% retracement level. On friday Nifty closed at the same level. Today it boucned back from the same level. In my last blog i have mentioned that the chart indicates that there can be bounce back, as there is a formation of the doji pattern. and the markets have entered in the over sold zone. The meeting that was held between the G-7 countries have gained some confidence in the markets. Governments across the world have moved on to help the global banks with multi-dollar bailouts.

==>> Global meltdown continues

Today Nifty closed below at 3513 after making a low of 3329 in the intial opening session. Just after the Pre opening session at 12.15 indices plunged around 8.5%, but smartly pull backed immediately. Sensex made a low of 10740, but managed to close above 11000, at 11328.
Technically both the Sensex and the Nifty chart looks good. In the Nifty chart we can see a hammer like pattern and in the Sensex its a Doji like pattern. Both the Indices chart shows that they have entered the over sold zones, But the global market meltdown will cover all these things. As Iceland and Pakistan may be declared bankcrupt as there is serious liquidity crisics. Ruppee trading around 49 as compared to per dollar. Gold hitting a new high as the traders see that as a better alternative. These may bring out markets down. But Indian economy as in that bad position as compared to the other global economy. We may also see some bank and real estate companies raising money for their survival. As their is serious lack of buyers in the real estate. If the builders could not attract customers till this year end, then there could be heavy correction in the same. Correction could be around 25-30%.
Dow down -7% . Sgx nifty trading down 260 points. Nikkei down 10%. Hangseng down 7%.

==>> ON THE LIGHTER SIDE !!

ON THE LIGHTER SIDE !!
In the Year 5008, yes not 2008 but 5008, a little girl asked her father - "Dad who were stock brokers?"Dad replied, "Some 3000 years ago these were human like creatures, they were so many and suddenly some kind of environmental change happened, their fossils are found with some numbers with graphs, marking 21000 and then 9000. Scientist interpret differently ,some says it may be temperature changes , some says it may be density of the gas they use to inhale for living dropped below 9000 from 21000.Nobody has a clear view on why they slowly became extinct "

==>> Nifty major support at 3500 levels

In the US markets, the Dow Jones closed below the psychological 10000 mark for the first time in 4 years on fears that the credit crisis is spreading its tentacles across world markets. The index however pared its massive losses in the final hour of trade.
The Fed tried to ease Wall Street's pain by saying that the 28-day and 84-day cash loans being made available to banks will be boosted to $ 150 billion a piece, effective Monday. Also loans that will be made available in November to banks also will be increased to $ 150 billion each.
That makes a total of $ 900 billion in credit potentially outstanding over year end. But the US markets didn't find much respite and slumped.At closing bell, Dow Jones ends down 369 points, S&P 500 sheds 42 points and Nasdaq ends down 84 points.

The carnage is till not over. We can feel the heat globally. The German govt bailed out a big property lender. South Korea said it will dip its forex reserves to lend banks.Europeran stock markets tanked 7%, while among the Emerging mkts Russia suffered the most, falling 19%, Brazil & China tanked by 15% and 5% respectively.

Indian ADR's are also sharply down, Sterlite -17%, Satyam -14%, MTNL -13%, Tmotors & Hdfc Bk -9%.

Oil has breached 88$ per barrel, but the impact is not seen in the Indian markets as the Re is also slidding down. Re made a new low of Rs.48 as compared to 1$.

Cash Reserve Ration (CRR) has been cut by 50bps. That will release Rs.20000 in the system. The last time RBI cut CRR was way back in June 2003. The actual impact on liquidity will be negligible coz Rs.17000 crs. will be sucked out of the money markets by Friday courtesy govt bond autions.

Technical Speaking Nifty has a good support at 3500. Acc to the Fibonacci theory from the High of 6357 & a low of 4448, 3500 levels is the -50% retracement level. Nifty is also getting in to the over sold zone.

==>> Nifty chart for 03/10/08

==>> India Outperforms

Yesterday Global markets were felt the tremour in the US markets. US markets which closed negative 770 points in Dow had a tremendous impact on the other markets as the $700 bn bailout was rejected. Hangseng opened negative. Indain markets to felt the same feeling in the early opening session. Nifty made new low of 3715.05. Last time we saw Nifty was in 2007 April. Sensex's low was 12153. This level we have seen in 2006 Sep month. Rupee depreciated to to make a low below Rs. 47 per dollar. But all these reasons did not stop Indian brousers to pull back soon. Nifty closed above in green at 3921 with a gain of 70 points. Sensex gained 265 points to close at 12860.
On September 17th I have mentioned that, though the current scenario in US are week, still the other emerging markets will definataley outperform the US markets. The bounce back will be very sharp, but not in the short term. Nifty has a good support at 3750. In the Nifty chart we can see that the Nifty is trying to take support at the Trendline in the last 2 days.

==>> Global meltdown continues

On Monday evening US House of representatives rejected Bush's $ 700bn bailout package. Dow Jones closed 770 points below the previous close, its biggest single-day drop in point terms. Nasdaq closed -199 points.On back of Global meltdown, Sensex closed -506 points at 12595. Nifty closed below at 3850.

US had already taken steps for the short sellers to prevent further downtrend in the Financial stocks, Now Korea planning to stop the same. Taiwan and Hongkong seeking the same. India also planning to take preventive steps. As per Leading news paper investors lost around Rs.5 trillion in 2 weeks. Leading US bank Wachovia Corp, which was plannning to buy out Morgan Stanley few weeks back, has now ended up being swalloed by Citigroup. Netherlands, Belgium and Netherlands and Luxembourg joined hands to lend $16bn to prevent the Belgium bank Fortis from gooin bankcrupt. In Germany Hypo Real Estate, the 2nd largest commercial property lender, received E35bn loan guarantee from ther German Government. France and Belgium will help bank Dexia, National City corp, US based may also the same problem.

Indian Real Estate stock prices have come down sharply. Banking sector have also seen a sharp fall in their share prices. Yesterday Nifty made a new low since Jan 2008. Nifty closed at 3850. As the global markets are in deep red, Indain markets will also feel the same effect. Nifty has a good support at 3750, Out markets can bounce back in the late hours.

==>> Wait and watch.

In the last week Indian Indices closed below the previous week's close. Nifty closed marginally below 4000 levels at 3985. Nifty made a high of 4303 and a low of 3970. The low of Last week was 3799. Sensex closed at 13102 after making a low of 13054. In Nifty and Sensex 4000 & 13000 respectively, seems to be a good support. If we take a Fibonacci Theory in the Nifty, from the high of 5298 and the low of 4369, the -61.8% retracement levels comes at 3790, which is the low made on 16/7/09 and low of 3799 made on 18/9/08. Volumes were very less in the last week.

==>> Volatile session with very low rollovers

The markets have rebounded with small rally in today's session after sharp fall see on Tuesday. The Sensex rose 122 points or 0.9% to close at 13692. Nifty closed at 4161 up 35 points or 0.8%. In the F&O segment roll over were low, Nifty rollover was at 43.2% versus 56% and market wide rollover at 50.4%. Fresh long built is seen in the metal counters.

Global concerns are not yet over even after bailout package announced. There are news that bailout package might be limited and may take longer than expected time to pass. FBI is likely to probe Fannie, Freddie, AIG, Lehman Brothers for possible accounting misstatements. Henry Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary, and Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve will be appearing before the House Financial Services Committee.

Indian markets opened on the weeker note, plunged down nearly 250 points in Sensex but recovered sharly to almost flat, but again in the closing session closed below nearly 400 points. Nifty closed -97 points at 4126 and Sensex closed 425 points down at 13570.

==>>US markets loosing its charm

Goldman Sachs and Morgan - the two great names in the financial sector are converting themselves into the old fashioned retail commercial banks. Morgan is wooing Japanese financial powerhouse Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc with a 20% stake that would garner $8bn. Nomura again from Japan have announced that they are buying the Asia operataions of Lehman with around 3000 staffs also. The euphoria over the Fed bail out appears to be loosing its shine. US markets closed around 3.5% down.

==>> Can we breakout this time above 4650???

It had been a very volatile week for the traders, Asian markets mostly depended on the American markets. American govt banned short trades on some financial sector, that lead to great short covering in the US makets. On thursday Dow and Nasdaq closed up around 4-5%. On Friday S&P500 hit the upper circuit of 5%. This could have definately given some sign of relief to the traders who rushed to cover their shorts. On Friday Russian market zoomed up around 11-12% on back of Russian govt will pump $20bn to support the stock markets. Thanks to the US markets that led to some relief in the other global markets also.

In the last few blogs i have mentioned that the Indian markets should out perform the other global markets. On 15th Sep Nifty closed at 4072. US markets were terriebly down, Asian markets were also feeling the tremour of the US markets. Next day Nifty immediately opening plunged till 3919 down around 160 points, but in the close session both Nifty and Sensex recovered smartly and rallied up to close above the previous close. 4070 levels was the 61.8% retracement level from the low of 3790 made on 16th July and high of 4539 made on 24th July. On Tuesday and Wednesday Nifty faced the resistance on the same level. On Thrusday Nifty opened in the Negative zone made a low of 3799 and closed above at 4038 to make a "Hammer" pattern in the Daily chart. The volumes were also good in the last 2 days.

Expect some short covering in our markets also. This may lead to 4400 levels in Nifty. We may see some side ways movement also and some profit booking also. Nifty will again try to test the previous highs. FII's remained Net seller for the week. They sold nearly Rs. 4600 Crs worth of stocks in the last week. But the DII remained net buyers of stocks worth Rs. 1700 Crs.

Today Sensex negative with a gap of around 550 points, and Nifty just after opening plunged to make a low of 3799.55. As we have seen in the past also that the Nifty has a good support at 3800 levels. In the closing bell Sensex recoverd nearly 750 points and Nifty nearly 170 points to close above in green zone. Yesterday also i todl that the Nifty chart is showing a hammer patterna and some pull back is definately expected. in my last blog i have also mentioned that the Indain markets should out perform the US markets and today we have seen that.

Morgan Stanley scouting for the buyers in China and possible merger with Wachovia the fourth largest US commercial bank. Moragan Liquidation of Indain Eq continued for the 2nd day in a row. it sold stocks worth Rs. 1279 Crs. The state owned Chinese fund could buy as much as 49% of MS. CIC bought a 9.9% stake in Dec. The US Fed, ECB and the Bank of Japan came together to create a massive $247 bn kitty. Russis promised to pump $20 bn to support stocks and promised a cut in the oil tax, while China decided to scrap the Stamp duty on stock purchase.

==>> Morgan Stanley the next tgt, will Goldman Sachs also???

Finally AIG got a bridge loan from the US govt of $85 billion in exchange of 79.9% stake in the giant insurer and of the most admired companies. Barclays said that it would acuire Lehmans North American investment banking and capital markets businesss for $250 million in cash. Morgan is in talks with China's CITIC. Morgan Stanley has sold in India-big time. Is it a sigh of another collapse??? On wednesday MS Mauritius Co. arm sold around Rs.870 Cr in some blok deals. Block deals inculde United spirits, Pantaloon Retail, Educomp Soln, jindal Saw, Gujnre coke, Opto Circuits, Subhasd Projects. Morgan Stanley stocks tumbled down around 44% and Goldman Sachs 23%. Dow is 4% down and Nasdaq pluged 4.9%.

There were rumors of ICICI Banks top official offlodding their hodlings in fear of big losses in the balance Sheet, that lead to 11% fall in the stock prices. The clarification was given by the Top officials in the market hours. Nifty closed at 4008 after opening at 4074. Nifty made a high of 4116, but could not sustain for a longer period. Nifty could plung down till 3650 in extreme case.

==>>US markets trembles

BOA bought Merrill Lynch for $50bn. Lehman filled for bankruptcy. AIG may go either way on Monday, it was denying buyout offers & instead, seeking a $bn cash infusion. The take over of the Merrill leaves two large independent investment banks in America, i.e Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. According to me both will also come with more losses in their Balance Sheet. Accoridng to the Bond traders, "Morgan" could be the next target. (If this happens then the America is heading towards a Great Depression as seen in 1929.) In the last 1 week there has been 3-4 bad news rulling the American markets. Just after then news of Frannie & Freddie taken over by US govt, Lehman collapsed and now Merrill lynch. I think so there could be more bad news just waiting to blast like a volcano.

Nymex crude plunged to $90. Rupee has further shown weakness against dollar. Rupee nearing 47 agianst 1 dollar.For Rupee depreciating the blame could be on the illegal overseas NDF( non-deliverable forward markets. Its illegal coz they are not sanctioned by the RBI. A NDF is a non -deliverable forward contracts in which buys forward dollars (book dollars today for deliver at a specified future date) in the local market for their clients and sell equivalent dollars abroad or viceversa, so that on the delivery date they make a profit or loss, which is the difference between both the rates.

Yesterday Nifty closed at 61% retracement level from the low of 3790 and high of 4620. Today markets opened with a downward gap. but in the closing bell both Sensex & Nifty bounced back. Nifty recovered around 150-160 points and Sensex around 500 points. Technically speaking Nifty daily price chart has some indicators that shows that we might see some bounce back form the current levels. "Hammer" pattern is been made in the both teh Sensex and Nifty chart. In the last 2 days there has been a gap down in the Sensex. it may bounce back to fill up these gaps.

In the last few blogs i have been informing the readers of this blog that the Banking & real estate sectors will the be the worst sector to perform if the market comes down. America could see recesssion. Till now the all the global markets have been following the US markets, but according to me now the emerging markets could see some divergance and could outperform US markets. In the near term i dont see a fast recovery but surely the Indian markets will outperform US markets. Nifty has a good support at 4000 - 3950 levels.

We will see a gap down in the markets today. The Nifty close below 4200, the fall may continue will 4000 levels in the coming days. Rupee is trading at 45.87 as compared to Dollar. Crude plunged below 100$ per barrel, but that will not help much. Traders are adviced not to take any positions.

==>> Nifty again at 4250-4200 levels, good support

Indian markets lost around 1.5%- 2% on Rupee's Weakness and Nervous Global markets. In the Morning SGX Nifty was trading at -80 points. Nifty opened n the negative zone, took a downward movement. Nifty closed below at 4288, after making a low of 4272. It closed just above the 50MDA which was at 4284 levels. In the chart we may see that the nifty closed below the 2nd trendline also. Sensex lost 338 points. Nifty always found good support at4250-4000 levels. We might see some pull back.

Inflation dipped for the third week. Inflation for the week ended lower at 12.10%. Rupee touched a new low of 45.50. gold is also making a new low. When the Crude is nearning a 4 month low at 101$, OPEC countries have decided to cut down the output of the crude so that the price remains above 100$.

Yesterday Nifty opened below the trendline, took support at 20DMA 4392. Nifty closed below at 4400.25. Sensex cloed below at 14662 after making a low of 14609. The MACD is still showing the positive sign. Yesterday our markets plunged down on the back of international markets. Nifty major support at 4200 and resistance at 4550.

==>> Some major points to be seen

We have seen a very volatile trading session yesterday. Nifty after opening made a low of 4418. Sensex made a low of 14714. In the last few hours Indices rallied to trade in the positive zone for sometime and closed below marginally in the negative zone. Nifty and Sensex closed at 4468/14900 respectively.

In the chart there we can clearly see that the Nifty closed above the Trendline line ( point no.1). Nifty on 9th Sep faced resistance at the 100 DMA (point 2.) and closed at 4482, before making a high of 4558. Point 3 indicates where the RSI normally finds the resitance. On 2nd Sep, even though there was a great rally in the Indian market, RSI could not close above the point3. Point 4 indicates the resistance level of the RSI. Point5 indicates the MACD has just crossed over and its a Bullish sign, till the time it is closing below.

There are 2 major levels to be seen, at the higher level, Nifty should close above 4550 and at the lower levels it should not close below 4200, for the Bullish Signal to remain in touch. Nifty below 4200 will make a head and shouled pattern. To break this pattern the Nifty should close above 4550 levels.

US markets are trading at - 2% lower. Crude trading near 104$ per barrel, gold near 800$.

==>> Nifty can touch 4650..

Before the Indian markets opened, SGN Nifty was already trading above more than 190 points. In the same manner Nifty opened up 150 points and Sensex around 450 points. Nuclear Deal was taken very positively by the markets. Sensex opened up at 14978 previous close was 14483 and closed above around 3.50%. Nifty closed 2.99% up at 4482. For most the day both Sensex and Nifty traded above 550 points and 160 points respectively, but in the closing session both the indices dropped down a bit. Nifty has closed above 4440, thats a good sign. The reason why the markets have come off is only that the Investors still dont have confidence in the market. All the -ve news have already been discounted in the markets. At 4000 points Nifty, i have mentioned that this is the right time to invest in the markets and with the minimum investment period of 1-1. years, the result will garner good returns to the investors.

==>> Nuclear deal gets on

The street is gettin ready for some celetbrations no matter the economic benefits for the victory in Vienna may take years to materialise. Getting the nod of the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) for the Indo-US nuclear deal. This will be recorded as tehe most important achievement of the Manmohan Singh led United progressive Alliance (UPA) government at the Centre.

Buy Tatapower with SL of 1040 tgt 1114-1159.
Buy LITL with SL of 280.
Buy RIL with Sl of 2050.
Buy Tata Steel with SL of 538.
Buy JP associates with SL of 153.
Buy LNT with SL of 2551.

==>> Nifty will get support at 4350

Nifty in the last week closed at 4352.5, with a H/L of 4522.10/4281.35. Nifty closed marginally down by around 8 points as compared to the close of the previous week. There were no bad news in the markets, technically indices were looking very strong. Indian markets fell down on the back of the slide in the global markets. Inflation for the week was down at 12.34% as compared to the week before. We have always seen that the Nifty gets very godo support at 4350 and bounces back, this time also we will ssee the same reaction.

==>> Nifty closes above 4440.

Sensex ends above 15000 and Oil dips to & 105.5/bbl nearly 8.5% as against previous close. European markets also bounced back after the week opening in the morning. Sensex closed with the gain of 551.35 or 3.38% and Nifty shot up by 155.35 points or 3.57% to settle at 4502 above the major resistance level of 4440. In the F&O segment Nifty futures have seen a fresh built up of 53 lakh shares in OI. It ended with a premium of around 13 points.

In my last blog on this site i have mentioned that the Nifty is finding good support at 4250-4200 levels and the same can go up to 4450. In the chart we can see that Nifty has made a break out pattern(circled). Yesterday's close was exactly at the trendline. Nifty took good support at the trendline and bounced back from the same. Nifty has a potential to bounce back till 4650 levels.

==>> Bottom out pattern for Nifty

Weekly close for Nifty and Sensex was above the previous close. In the chart we can clearly see that the Nifty closed above the trendline. Today Nifty opened at 4356 in the positive zone, immediately after opening plunged down to make a low of 4281, but as the Nifty always finds a good support at the 4250-4200 levels, closed above at 4348. Sensex and the nifty rallied in the closing session. I think so that Nifty is trying to bottom out at 4200 levels. All the Negative news in the markets have been discounted. Nifty ca touch 4450-4600, if the close is not below 4200.

==>> Nifty closed below 4250

In my last few blogs i have been constantly informing the viewers of this blog, that the Nifty is facing stiff resistance at 4450 levels and the 4250 levels is very crucial support level. Till the time Nifty crosses above 4450 NO TEJI should be done. Yes i have also mentioned in my last blog that there are some chances that the Nifty may bounce back, but it was also told that the exact trend will be noticed after todays trading seesion. 4200 seems to be a good support level.

Nifty closed at 4221 below the support level of 4250. Sensex closed at 14076. In the Nifty chart we can clearly see that Nifty took good support on the Trendline (1), in the last few days, but today opened below the trendline and plunged to make a low of 4201. Sensex made a low of 14002. The RSI is also in the downward movement. Volumes were pathetic through the week. Markets seriously lacking buyers. Inflation expeceted 12.87%+. So we may see further downside in the Banking and the Real Estate Sector.

Today Nifty closed at 4283. For most of the day both Nifty and Sensex traded in the negative zone. But in the closing session, both Nifty and Sensex closed above in the positive zone, with small gains. The candel stick pattern that is been made suggests that the movement can be on the either side, and that too very fast. Today markets played exactly the opposite game that was played yesterday. Today bulls got the control of the markets and helped Indian indices to close in the positive zone. Today candel stick pattern signifies a potential uspdei, but clarification will be done tommorrow.

==>> Rupee depreciates against Dollar

Markets opened with a positive gain. Nifty surged to make a high of 4398.8, faced resistance at 4400 levels. For most of the day bulls had the control over the mkt. Sensex remained around +200 points for most of the day, but in the closing session bears took the front seat, and took the control of the mkts. Nifty tanked to touch the negative zone, but some how managed to close above the previous close. Nifty gained around 8 points and Sensex closed above 45 pionts. Volumes have dropped down significantly. Rupee hit the low of 44 per dollar.

The candle stick pattern " Inverted hammer" that is being made on the Nifty chart suggests that there can be some more correction left in the market, but the clear trend will be known today. Downtrend is logical in this scenario as the Rupee is depreciating and the inflation is hitting 13 year high.

==>> Nifty chart 22/08/08

Nifty on the weekly basis closed at 4327.45 below the previous close of 4430.70. In the current week, Nifty made a high of 4447.4 and and a low of 4248.00. The levels were mentioned in my previous blogs. Breakout in either direction will we very fast. Watch out for the same levels. Crude prices raised to make a high of 122$, but again cooled down at 114$. Nifty on the weekly chart has taken good support at the trendline. On the daily chart Nifty closed above the 50DMA. Till the time Nifty close is not above 4440, buying should be avoided.

==>> Nifty immediate support at 4250

It was clearly mentioned that the Nifty is facing stiff resistance at 4440 levels and NO TEJI should be done till Nifty closes above the same in my blog posted on 20/08/08 "Bag full of confusion" . Yesterday Nifty plunged before making a high of 4418, till 4271.30. Nifty closed at 4283.85 below my support levels os 4290. On wednesday i have posted Nifty chart with some triggers that shows week trends. Nifty immediate support at 4250. The inflation for week ended August 9 has come in at 12.63% versus 12.44%. Another round of rate hike will be there.

==>> Crude price set to raise to 120-125 $

Techniclly speaking, Crude price chart is showing strenght at 115$, it may bounce back to 125$ per barrel.

==>> Bag full of confusion.

Marekts after leaving in the red zone for most of the trading time yesterday, bounced back in the closing session to gain some points in the positive zone. But average close of the last 1/2 hour, Sensex closed below by 101 points and Nifty closed with a loss of 25 points. Nifty closed at 4368.25 after making a low of 4316.55. As i have mentioned yesterday the Nifty has a good support at 4360 levels, the same was broken but the close was above the same. Nifty made a new low 4316.55. Yesterday there was high level of confusion. Nifty closed below the 20DMA. Nifty may come down till 4150 levels in the coming few tradign session, if the close is not above the 4440 levels. Nifty will find support at 4290 levels at 50 DMA. Nifty need to close above 4440 to reach to the level of 4625. Till the time i would advice to keep ur positions very light. NO TEJI. We might see some pull back, but will that stabalize.........

There are certian triggers marked in the chart attached which shows some weekness in the market.

==>> Markets opened weak for the week. Ruppee at 17th month low

The week opened on the weak note. Immediately after the opening session indices plunged down in the red zone. Both the indices tried to stay in the positive zone but finally closed in the negative zone. Sensex closed -79 points and Nifty at -38 points. Nifty closed below 4393. It seems that the nifty will have good support at 4390-4360 levels.

The rupee fell to its lowest in 17 months on Monday, hit by weak stock market. Rupee fell for the fifth day against the dollar. This triggered buying in IT shares, as this sector earns a substantial portion of its revenues in dollars, and hence benefits from a stronger greeenback. Global investors have started showing intrest in Indaia markets. Foreign inflows in Local markets have been low, but it is better then the redemption they are doing in the other emerging markets. India funds saw an inflow of $52 million in the last week ending Aug 13. Inflows have touched $151.5 million in the last 4 weeks. But is still far better then the Chinesse equities, that have received inflows of around $2 billion in a month.

== Nifty likely to find support at 4390.

On the week to week basis Sensex closed down by 2.92% at 14742. Nifty closed -2.18% at 4430. The sector which were badly bashed in the week was the Banking and the Reality. They were down by more then 6% as compared to the previous week.

Twice in the last week, Nifty faced resistance at 4625 levels and the 100DMA. Long unwinding was seen in the Aug Nifty future as is shed open interest with decling premiums. Writing activity started in Nifty 4600,4700 & 4800 calls, giving the indication that the markets are on the verge of forming top. However, hardly any short build ups were seen- neither in the form of put buying, nor in the form of short build up in the futures. Nifty slipped down to close below 4440 levels. Nifty will find good support at 4390 levels.

Crude fell USD 1.24 to settle at USD 113.77 a barrel on the NYMEX. Dollar gaining strenght as compared to other global currency.

==>>Nifty support at 4440

The Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (EAC) has projected a growth rate of 7.7% for 2008-2009, revised from 8.5%. EAC expects inflation to rise to 13% before it starts to taper off. Some more stocks included in the Nifty F&O kitty. Some more stocks available for ‘SATTA’. Out of the 39 scripts that are going to be included in the F&O, some of them are highly illiquid, taking the total to around 270. A group of speculators can easily control the floating in the cash segment that can lead the increase or decrease the prices in Futures. This move is going to encourage speculation. Today inflation figures will be announced today. Markets will remain volatile as the IIP Data were not that great. There was No change in the Participatory Notes.

Technical View:
As mentioned in my earlier blog also that the Nifty is stiff resistance at 4625 levels. Yesterday Nifty closed at 4529. Nifty will find good support at 4440 levels. Nifty close below 4440 for 2 days can take the Nifty to 4250.

The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex has gained 21 percent since falling to a 16-month low on July 16, as oil declined by 22 percent from its July 11 peak. India was the only market among the so-called BRIC nations of Brazil, Russia, India and China that gained in the past month as the MSCI Emerging Markets Index slumped to its lowest in almost a year. Still the leading news paper shared their view on Monday, it stated it is STILL not the right time to invest. Can any one tell me when will be the best time???? According to me if any investor with the minimum investment of a year, will definately win the race... ( my view has remained the same since nifty made a low of 3850.

==>> Industrial growth still slow.

Industrial production grew 5.4% as compared to 4.1%, but below 8.9% figure in June 2007. Manufacturing sector was the main gravitational pull, the main culprit pulling down the IIP growth. Manufacturing which accounts for two-thirds of the IIP fell down dramatically from 11.1% in June 2007 to 5.9% in June 2008. Crude prices hit $112.31/bbl. Gold crashed to Rs.11,300. Around 4-5 months back i had mentioned that the major money lender Indian banks, may also burn their hands. Leading news paper are now anticipating that the Banks will see rise in bad loans, especially in the retail segment after the latest bout of intrest rate thighteting.

Yesterday Nifty opened at 4620 made a high4649.85 to close at 4552. It is clearly seen in the chart that the Nifty is still facing good resistance at 4625.

On Friday crude prices fell down by $4. On the back of the fall in the crude prices, US market closed up around 2%+. On Monday morning all the asian markets rallied. Sensex closed above at 15503 and Nifty at 4529. IIP Data will be announced today. Market expectation are high.

Technically speaking, Nifty is trying to make a Higher top and the higher bottom formation. But it is facing stiff resistance at the 100 DMA and at 4625 levels. Few days back also it was mentioned about the same, and the Nifty dipped from 4615 levels to 4464. Nifty will find good support at 4440.

==>> Inflation at 13 year high

Inflation crossed the 12% mark in the week ended July 26. In the previous week it was at 11.98% and a week before that it was at 11.89%. Inflation is a 13 year high as compared to 4.7% in the corresponding period a year ago. Crude gained strenght on the back of fire in the crude pipeline in Turkey. Gold continued its down ward journey for the fourth straight session. FII's offloaded equities worth Rs.223 crores. Gold has dropped Rs. 1620 from its all time high.

Yesterday also Indian brousers gained in the early session, but in the end all the gains were lost. Sensex closed about +30 points and Nifty gained around 3 points. Nifty made a high of 4580, to close at 4520 in the end.

==>> Nifty Brekout.....

Yesterday Nifty crossed the resistance trend line and closed above the 4500 mark. Nifty will face resistance at 4540 level. The close above the same will take the nifty to 4625 level. Sensex closed above at 14961. Sensex close above 15130 will take it to the level of 15345.

Few Days i have mentioned that the Nifty will bounce back from 4000 levels, from there onwards there has been no stopage. I have also mentioned that, it is the right time for the investment and the traders should look out for trading in Banking and Real Estate sector. Crude price is at $118 per barrel.

Markets remained volatile through the day. Markets after opening in the -ve zone, rallied to make a high of 4436. Nifty faced resistance at 4440 as seen in the past also. Markets after the mid session tanked down in the-ve zone. After making a low of 4362, Nifty closed at 4395.

As mentioned earlier taht the Nifty will face resistance at the terndline. It is trying to close above the same. Few stocks were recommended yesterday. RPL after opening made a high of 175 and closed above at 174.30.

==>> Nifty breakout above the trendline

The northward journey of the bourses continue for thte 2nd consecutive week. Sensex rallied 382 points and Nifty rallied 102 points higher then the previous week. The fall in the global crude prices trigerred gains during the last week. Crude prices fell from the a peak of 147.27 to close at 12.1 a barrel on friday. Oil prices may rise. In case it raises it will bad for the Indian markets, especially when the inflation is close to 12%.

Does that mean the party is over on the brouses? The answer is no. The reason is that there is no negative trigger to drive down the Indian markets and during the last week, foreign funds remained net buyers in the cash market, which is a bigh plus sign. Indo-US Nuclear deal will also prove to be good for the markets.

Technically speaking, after making a bottom at the 50% retracement level from the low of 3790 and high of 4539, retracement at 4160. Nifty has bounced back. It is facing some resistance at the trendline at 4425 levels. But a decisive breakout above the trend line will take Nifty to 4540 levels. Break above 4539, the Nifty will be in the new pattern formation of higher top and higher bottom formation. At the downside good support at 4190.

Buy Rpl above 170 tgt 174. above the same will take it to 182 levels. PUNJLYOD, RPL, SUZLON LOOKS GOOD, break out pattern.

==>> Inflation at 11.98%

Inflation have almost reached 12%. Inflation for the week was 11.98% as compared to 11.89% in the previous week. Many traders choosed to trade cautiously ahead of the release ok key inflation and the second quarter US Economy numbers. ICICI and HDFC Bank announced a hike in their prime lending rates, which wille be effective from friday. The US economy grew at 1.9% in the second quarter.

Our markets traded in the negative zone for most of the day on Thrusday. Nifty closed at 4332.95 after making a low of 4285.55 and Sensex at 14355.75. Nifty will face resistance at 4375 levels. Fresh short Built have been seen in many Banking stocks, Cement Sector.

==>> Nifty resistance level. Some long built up.

On 29th Nifty took good support at the 50% retracement level. It bounced back from the same level to close above at 4313. Sensex closed at 14287. There was a gap down opening on 29th. Yesterday's rally helped Sensex fill the same. Nifty will face resistance at 4375 and Sensex at 14685 levels. Good Long Built up see in RNRL, R power, Lupin, Divis Lab, Mtnl, Ekc, Titan.

==>> Repo rate & CRR rate hiked & Nifty at 50 % retracement level

Mr. Reddy did the unexpected with a twin dose of rate hike & liquidity mop up. The central bank hiked the repo rate, or the rate at which banks borrow short term funds from the RBI, by 50 basis points to 9%. The Cash Reserve ratio or the portion of deposits that banks have to keep with the RBI, was also increased by 25 basis points to 9% effective from Aug 30. Economists have started to lower company growth forecasts because investment plans of companies will be hit by higher borrowing costs. RBI's inflation rate projection for the road of this fiscal if at 7%.

Nifty next support is at 4115 i.e 20DMA. Sensex will take support at 13693. Sensex will open with gap up opening, as our markets are not bad. Global markets are up by around 2%.

If we consider the Fibonacci theory from the recent low of 3790 which was made on 16th July and high of 4539 made on 24th July, 50 retracement level is around 4160 in Nifty and in Sensex it is at 13822. Nifty took good support at the same but Sensex closed below the retracement level. According to me markets will bounce back from the same.