==>> Global markets helps Indian markets to rally

Global markets helped, Indian markets surge nearly 4%. BSE was up 520 points to closed at 14109 and NIfty closed at 4286 up 159 points. US markets were positive on back of, revial in the US consumer index. Asian markets too followed the US markets. Before opening of the Indian markets, SGX Nifty was up around 112 points. ADAG Group shares outperformed the markets. Pranab Mukherjee will be decalring budget in the 1st week of July. Operators expect markets to rally till that time. But there is profit booking at the higher levels. There has been profit booking in the last few days, that has lead the Nifty fall down to 4092 levels from the recent high of 4509 levels. Major of the stocks have been almost doubled, and the stocks are not looking cheap. IT stocks have been downgraded by many broking houses too. Nifty will continue to face resistance at the 50% retracement level. Till the time this it is not crossed, avoid having too much position.

==>> Markets closed flat

Markets closed flat for the day. Nifty closed at 4237 down by just by a point after making a low of 4205. Nifty made a high of 4270. As mentioned in the past also that the Nifty has resistance at 4280. Sensex made a high and low of 14028 and 13819 before closing at 13913 with a marginal gain of just 26 points. Once again mid cap shares performed well as compared with the Frontline stocks. Volumes were pretty close as compared to the volumes in the previous week. Volumes in BSE was Rs7300Cr & NSE was at Rs18,000Cr. Realty stocks were in focus.
Buy calls on:
1. Dcb facing stiff resistance at 42 levels. buy above 42, first target of 46.8
2. Buy Opto Circuit above 165 target 171-174-178
3. United Breweries daily chart is in the making of Cup and Saucer pattern
4. Buy Satyam above 57.35
5. Skumar above 37 tgt 42

==>> Nifty at 50% retracement level

Last week had been very good for the traders. As the Congress took the lead for the 2nd time, to take the head the government of India. Markets reacted very positively in India. On Monday, SGN Nifty was trading nearly +500 points and as the Markets opened in India, within seconds both the indices were locked into the upper circuit of 15% and reopening after 2 hrs hault, indices again locked in the upper circuit of 5%. Markets were suspended for the entire day. Next day markets opened positively and slipped in to the negative zone, but closed flat. For the next 2 days markets witnessed some profit booking. On Friday, the markets were very volatile. In the closing session indices saw some pull back rally. Nifty closed above at 4232 up 21 points
Last week, Indian markets outperformed their earlier records too in the last week. For the 1st time Indices were locked at the higher circuit. And on the next day the Exchanges for the 1st time, saw a mind blowing volumes of whoping Rs 1,50,000 crore. Volumes in the past week has been very good. Some of the stocks almost double in the last 2 weeks. If we take the Fibonacci theory from all time high made in the month of Jan 2008 i.e 6357 and the low of 2252 made in the month of Oct 2008, the 50 % retracement level comes nearly at 4320. In the last week, Nifty faced resistance at the same levels. Markets saw profit booking. Frontline stocks had a beating down, but the mid cap shares continued their rally. Some of the stocks rallied more than 50-60%.I had given buy calls on Moser Baer @ 67, DCB @ 36, Adlabs @ 308, Opto Circuit above 157.85.

==>> Finally some correction on the way

Indices closed lower around 1.50% each. Markets immediately after the opening, slide down in to the red zone. Nifty closed at 4270 after touching and intra day low of 4244.70. Sensex breached 14000 levels, made a low of 13976 down by 241 points and finally closed at 14060. Except some of the of the frontline stocks, major of the stocks were down. RIL was down nearly 6%, Bharti, Bhel, ICICI Bank, HDFC, DLF, Infosys were also down. But the case was pretty different with the other groups. Bulls were njoining there ride.

==>> Hold for any buy positions

Its been a good day for the exhanges in India. For the first time ever markets reported its highest turnover of Rs 157877 Cr. Nse cash volumes zoomed to Rs.40130 CR and BSE at 11761 CR, balance came from the F&O segment.The only person this time minted money are the exchanges. There were hardly any buyers in the marekts in the last week, coz every1 waited for the election results to be out.
The Golden polish that has been put on the markets have been wiped off. Nifty as mentioned that, it will face stiff resistance at 4450 levels. In my last blog I haver written that this rally will face heavy selling and profit booking at the higher levels. The last chart attached with the last blog shows the levels also. I have marked with the circles, where the Nifty faced resistance. In the past also we have seen that the Nifty has fallen when it crossed that level.
Nifty in the early trading session made a high of 4464 and the in the mid session surpassed the previous level and made a intra day high of 4509. But as mentioned early, lost its glory and down nearly 5 points at 4290.Sensex made a high of 14931 but closed at bearly in green with a gain of just 18 points at 14302, after gaining nearly 650 points in the early trading session. Before the mkt started, SGX Nifty was up nearly 5% with a gain of 290 points, but as soon as the Indian markets opened the Nifty and the Sensex slided i the negative zone. There has been no fundamental change in the Indian markets. This rally just due to the stable govt in India. Yes that has been a very good news, but the mkts rallying will not continue without a break. Nifty will find stiff resistance at 4450 levels. Todays Chart indicates that the rally has been halted for sometime and we might see some profit booking. Traders are adviced not to buy at this level, coz major of the stocks are almost double out in few trading sessions and investors are stucked, they will find very difficult to come of the stocks. Markets will witness correction, that can be heavy too.
Indian stocks are no more cheap intheir valuations, they are much more expensive from their all time high also. Their are trading at higher PE then they were in the month of Jan 2008. Be carefull.

Its surely been a Golden day for the Bulls in the Indian markets. Its for the first time in the Indian stock market history that the trading has been suspended for hitting the upper circuit. Within few seconds after the markets opened Nifty hit the upper circuit level of 15% and the trading was suspended for 2 hrs. Immediately after the trading hours opened again, Nifty again hit the upper circuit level of 5% more. The Nifty was up 20%. The markets were suspended for the rest of the day. Total volumes in both the exchanges was just 3100 CR, that is even less then the volumes alone in the BSE exchange in the normal days.

==>> Wait for the election results to be out

Indian mkts responded on the same line as the global markets. But remained very volatile throught the day. Sensex opened with a gap nearly 300 points in red and within few minutes the mkts bounced back. At time the sensex rallied and was only 100 points -ve. but the selling pressure remained. Traders are looking ahead for the election results. There is clearly no mood of buying in the markets. Mid cap shares did pretty good, but the frontline stocks lost their shine.
Sensex closed 146 points lower at 11873 and Nifty closed nearly 1% lower at 3593. Nifty made a low of 3537. In the last 3 days Nifty made a low of 3534. Nifty has been consolidating in a very small range. Traders are waiting for the election results. In my last blog, I have mentioned that the mkts will be see some profit booking, and the reader were adviced not to take any position in the mkt.
We can clearly see that the Nifry have faced stiff resistance at 4450 levels and this time also it wont be so easy to cross the same.

==>> Adopt an Wait & Watch

Hello readers, yes I know that i am writing after a long time, but for the past few weeks, the mkts had been in a small range . As I have mentioned in earlier blog also the Nifty will face resistance at 3600 levels, that is wat is happening in the mkt. Investors are booking profits at every rise. According to me there has been no change in the fundamental of India, that gives support to the Indian mkt rally. Major Indices have rosed to more than 25-30%, without major change in the Indian economy. IIP is at its 16yr low, exports are slashing down, consumer spending is down. Motor car sales are down, but the companies scripts have rosed more than 50%. WHY??? Reality sector as a whole is down, due to lack of buyers in the mkt, but still the Reality srcipts have almost doubled in the past few weeks.. WHY?? Is it just to raise more money from the mkt. or the operators have pulled their plugs again. When the Nifty was aroung 2900-2800 levels, all the Research firms and the technicals indicators indicated that, there will be more pain and the NIfty will fall down to 2300 levels. And now the same people are predicting the Nifty will touch 4000 -4100 levels. What had made change their view so fast, without any change in the fundamentals of India. What made the FII pore money in the Indian economy.

This is just an operator game and the pre election rally, that acc to me this rally wont last. The rally was seen because of the rumours that the COngress will lead the Government of India. If at all the news in not correct and some other party forms the govt then, the mkts will go for a toss. So till the time the, results are not outthe best thing what the people should do is to adopt a Wait & Watch strategy rather loosing out for something. Nifty is facing resistance at 3650 levels and if it stays below the same for some more trading days, then it may again fall down till 3400. But it this rally continues, Nifty can touch 3800 levels soon.