==>> Nifty resistance level. Some long built up.

On 29th Nifty took good support at the 50% retracement level. It bounced back from the same level to close above at 4313. Sensex closed at 14287. There was a gap down opening on 29th. Yesterday's rally helped Sensex fill the same. Nifty will face resistance at 4375 and Sensex at 14685 levels. Good Long Built up see in RNRL, R power, Lupin, Divis Lab, Mtnl, Ekc, Titan.

==>> Repo rate & CRR rate hiked & Nifty at 50 % retracement level

Mr. Reddy did the unexpected with a twin dose of rate hike & liquidity mop up. The central bank hiked the repo rate, or the rate at which banks borrow short term funds from the RBI, by 50 basis points to 9%. The Cash Reserve ratio or the portion of deposits that banks have to keep with the RBI, was also increased by 25 basis points to 9% effective from Aug 30. Economists have started to lower company growth forecasts because investment plans of companies will be hit by higher borrowing costs. RBI's inflation rate projection for the road of this fiscal if at 7%.

Nifty next support is at 4115 i.e 20DMA. Sensex will take support at 13693. Sensex will open with gap up opening, as our markets are not bad. Global markets are up by around 2%.

If we consider the Fibonacci theory from the recent low of 3790 which was made on 16th July and high of 4539 made on 24th July, 50 retracement level is around 4160 in Nifty and in Sensex it is at 13822. Nifty took good support at the same but Sensex closed below the retracement level. According to me markets will bounce back from the same.

==>> See the typical Traders mind

Kindly open the file attached to view the Traders mind. Are u in the LOOP????

==>> Nifty support at 4250

Nifty did try to close above the resistance level of 4448, but closed below at 4433.55 on 24th July. It was near our resistance trendline also. Same thing happend with the Sensex also. We can clearly see in the chart. I believe the RBI has it's role cut out. Expect Dr Reddy to tighten the noose on liquidity, raise rates and warn of further hikes if the incoming data demands.
In an era of rising yields, we would expect the banking stocks to bear the brunt. Similarly the real estate sector stocks will continue to get the boot for some time. I don't see any reason why some one should like Indian real estate at this time, when the prices in the US have already taken a beating of 16.6%. Dont buy it as an investment, its good for the traders. Why would one want to take a currency risk and face other incidental problems by buying real estate exposure in India, when prices are yet to begin falling in India.

In the U.S., the S&P 500 index dropped 1.9 percent yesterday after the IMF warned that worsening credit conditions may prolong the economic slowdown. Nifty has a good support at 4250 levels. The opening will be week but in the close session we might see some pull back. Buy at lower levels.

==>> What would the deal with USA mean for India?

The Govt has chalked out a roadmap wherein over the next 25 years, through the deal, it has set a target of generating 20,000 MWe (unit of nuclear power) as against the current 3,900 MWe.

The biggest advantage, which the UPA Govt is actually seeking is projecting to the world that it an ally of USA, which is a superpower in the world of today. The deal would provide India with access to American civilian nuclear technology. It would finally open up the door to US military technology, especially the fascinating US missile defense system.

Once the new reactors are set up, and they go critical without any time overrun, the nuclear power generation would take care of 8% of India’s total power requirement. More than 80% of the power generated in India comes from coal and thermal. And that will continue but just as oil has become critical today, coal will also one day reach such a stage. And unless we have backups ready, our entire country could get unplugged. Having nuclear power could help India, over the long run, offset the rising cost of coal.

Yes, price of uranium is also mounting. Between 2005 (when the India-US nuclear deal was first proposed) and 2007 (when the 123 Agreement was finalised), since then, the spot price of uranium has quadrupled. According to a June 2008 market assessment, a further 58 per cent increase is expected. But remember unlike oil, we are dealing with more mature economies here who will supply uranium and hopefully, they will prevent the present cartelization which we see in oil.

==>> Nifty closed below 4510

In the last blog, it was mentioned that the Nifty will face resistance at 4510. Nifty made a high of 4539 and closed below at 4433.55 down by 45 points. Sensex closed at 14777. In the chart we can see that, the sensex and the Nifty will face resistance at the trendline. Today SGX Nifty is doen by 130 points. Global markets are also in red by around 1.5% to 2%. Crude price was up by around 1.5$ per barrel. It is still not negative for our markets. Investor shld buy at the lower levels. In the last 2 days, markets average was also good as compared to the turnover in last 3-4 months.

==>> Nifty will some resistance at 4510 levels.

Markets reacted positively on the back of UPA govt winning the trust vote. Sensex opened with the gap of 400+ and closed above at 14942 after making a high of 14979. Nifty closed above 250+ points at 4476 after making a high of 4491. Few days back i have mentioned that the Nifty is trying to break the patter of lower top and lower bottom formation. Nifty close is above the major resistance level of 4448.

All the PSU co. closed with a gain of around 5-10%. Crude prices have calm down at 126$ per barrel. Nifty will face some resistance at 4510 levels. Breakout and close above that will take Nifty to 4650-4800 levels.

==>> Some PSU Companies

These are some of the PSU companies. Traders can take position in these.

Hpcl, Bpcl, Ioc, Ongc, Bhel, Beml, Bel, Ntpc, Pfc, Rec, Dredging corp, Bongai refinery, Chennai Petro, Nevyli,, Vijaya Bk, Central Bk, Sbi Bk, Canara Bk, Iob, Obc, Andhra Bk, Boi, Bob, Bk of Mah, Corp Bk, Syndicate Bk, JK Bk, Mmtc, Sail, Mtnl, Container Corp, Engineers India, IDbi Bk, Gail, Nalco, Pnb Bk, Power grid, Rcf, Stc, Union Bk, Sci.

Powergrid, Rec buy buy......

==>>UPA govt wins the trust vote

So finally the judgement day has come. UPA govt wins the trust vote. The Manmohan Singh government has won the trust vote. In this trust vote, 487 members voted. 253 members voted for the government and 232 voted against the governement. According to me marketmen had the hint of the move, thats the reason they may have reacted positively today.

We had a seen a volatile sesssion today. Nifty and both Sensex both opened in the negative zone. After sometime markets moved in the positive zone. Rallied quite a bit around 350 points in Sensex. Corrected a bit, but closed in the positive zone. As mentioned that the if the congress govt stays, then the market will definattely have a positive reaction. Now it all depends on the Crude prices. At present it is tryin to stabalize, but u never know, it might be the silence before the storm.

==>> Count down begins

Majority of the Indians yesterday did not knew where the Govt is headed, the stock market did also showed signs of directionless. Trading was extremely choppy and more stock specific. But in the ending session markets rallied and ended in the positive zone due to short covering. The actual trust vote is schedule to happen today between 5-6 pm. Till this cloud of uncertainty is not clear, market will remain directionless. By late evening we will know the outcome and that will give the markets a sense of direction for trading on wednesday.

==>> Banking on the Real Estate sector.

WOW!!!! WAT A RALLYYYYYYY.....

It was the bad day for the Bears. Sensex rallied more than 1000 points in just 2 days. YOU CAN SAY FASTEST 1000 POINT GAIN. Nifty faced some resistance at 4100 levels closed at 4092. Since last one week i have been telling all the readers of this blog, that this is the right time to buy. Real Estate & Banking were the sector which was recommended to the traders. Major rally was there in these sector. It is still mentioned clearly that these sectors are purely a trading calls.

Nifty closed above the trendline (marked by the circle, in the chart). Nifty will again face resistance at 4215 levels. Till the time the close is not above the same for few days, the trend is still not clear. The lower bottom and lower lower top formation is still in the making. but according to me the trend wiill be broken. Inflation for the week was at 11.91%. It is moving northwards but a slower rate then in near past.

22nd July will be a busy day. This day will decide wheather the congress government will rule India or not. If the Congress loses, it will be the most unwelcome thing to happen in India. Remember when the Vajpayee Govt fell the last time, markets took this as a positive note and our markets rallied. Market will rally only if SINGH IS KING.

==>> Buy, Buy, Buy

Due to some technical problem, i was not able to write on the blog for past 4-5 days.

In the last few days our markets really had a good roller coaster ride. Nifty closed below 3850 but took support between 3725-3850 and bounced back yesterday to close at 3947. In the chart we can clearly see that the nifty is facing resistance at the trendline. Breakout above the same will take the Nifty above 4100 levels. Inflation is rising but at a slower rate, as major commodity prices are cooling off. As mentioned in my last blogs that the Crude prices will see some correction and it will fall to 130 levels. now its trading around 129$ per barrel. On Tuesday 080708 i have mentioned that "We wont see major correction from here onwards". Till now i have been proved right. Be are Dare Devil and buy and hold. Its a right time for investment.

==>> Good support at -23.6% retracement level

Our indices opened in the positive zone. Sensex opened with a gap in the Positive zone with around 150 points, closed with a gain of 600 points. Nifty closed at 4157 with a gain of 120 points. Almost for half of the day Bulls kept the sensex at around 400 points. In the end session markets rallied on the back of some short covering and fresh buying. Banking and the real estate stocks were the favourite for the day. The call was given on Monday to buy out these sectors.

I had mentioned in my last blog that the Nifty is taking good support at the -23.6% retracement level. I have also mentioned that the Crude prices will see some correction. Day after it was mentioned Crude prices fell below 136$ per barrel. Buy PTC, Prajind, RPL, Tata Power, Rcom, Rpower, Gokul Refoils, LITL, NTPC.

==>> Our markets will bounce back from here......

Today Indian markets opened in the negative zone. Sensex felow down around 425 points and Nifty by 100 points. Nifty fell down till 3896, pulled back and closed at 3988.55. Sensex closed at 13349 before making a low of 13049. In the last 2 days i kept on mentioning that Sensex are not planning to make a new low. Nifty & Sensex fell down to -23.6% retracement levels. In the last 4-5 trading session Nifty & Sensex are trying to take support at the same level.

In the opening session markets fell down and tried to make a new lo, but in the closing bell recovered sharply and closed marginally down. There was no panic in the markets even after the news of Left party withdrawing support for the nuclear deal. As such this news had been already discounted in the markets. Investors should keep on investing in the markets. Traders can still take their position with the SL of Nifty close below 3850, which is not likely to touch in the immediatefew weeks. On Monday I have mentioned traders to buy Banking and Real Estate stocks. These will be the best stocks for the traders to trade in. Be are DARE DEVIL and buy. Do not panic. Crude prices are stabalising, and we might see correction. According to me Crude is in the distribution stage. It can fall down till 135 levels..

==>> We wont see major correction from here onwards

FII's still have faith in the long term growth story of India. FII's who have registered with the regulator has risen to over 1,400 while sub-account registrations have topped the 4,000-mark. Apart from the long term growth story of India, what worked in favour was the easing up of the norms for sub-accounts. Also the closure of the participatory note route helped spur more registrations. Nearly 60% of new entrants are investors from the US with the balance coming in from European, Japan and West Asia.

Oil prices tanked to 142$ per barrel. Inflation is not rising at the faster rate as it was rising before by 1-1.5% on week on week basis. American markets are marginally down, but hangseng is down by around 750 points. Our markets will also open in the negative zone, but i dont think so that we will the same fall that was witnessed earlier. Yesterday it was mentioned that, this is the right time for the long term investor to invest in the Indian markets. Each fall will give the opportunity to invest........

==>> Start investing right now.

MARKETS ARE NOT LIKELY TO MAKE A NEW LOW. TILL THE TIME NIFTY CLOSE IS BELOW 3850, DO NOT SELL. SHORT POSITION SHOULD BE AVOIDED. IF CREATED THEN BOOK PROFITS IN PANIC. Nifty close below 3850-3725. Upward tgt 4250.

Traders should buy with the Sl of 3850 in Nifty. As mentioned earlier that the investors should invest atleast 25-30% of their portfolio size in the current markets. Even if the markets goes down from here, which is likely not possible, they can average it out anytime. Downside is very little from here onwards. Buy RPL, PTC, Praj ind, Hanung Toys, NTPC, BASF, Infosys, Cipla, Gmr Infra, Pstl, Pvr, Power grid, Sunpharma. These are purely a delivery calls. DO NOT PANIC EVEN IF THE MARKETS TANK. AVERAGE IN THESE STOCKS. Minimum investment period1-1.5 yrs. Investors will earn a lot. Start investing from today onwards.

Buy banking and Real Estate in the rally, coz these are the sector which has fallen down more than 50-60%. For the traders these sector can give them handsome money. but these will be purely for trading. Book profits as and when required.

==>> Back to square one

Till the time the markets did not open in the market, traders felt very happy that they took overnight position yesterday. But here in this blog, i clearly mentioned that they, its just a short covering in the markets. The pull back is due to the good support of 3850. Pull back of around 700 points in sensex was not jusitfied, so it was clearly mentioned that the best policy is to sit back and watch the markets, investors will definately get a second chance to invest. Real Estate and banking saw great short covering yesterday, but they again reversed back to the previous levels.

Sensex previous close was 13664. Sensex few minutes after opening slipped in the negative zone. So the traders realised that it was 700 points down. Sensex made low of 12934 before closing above 13000 levels. Sensex can test the levels od 12300 levels and Nifty close below 3850 can test 3510 levels in the extreme case.

==>> Merely a short covering. "WAIT AND WATCH"

In the blog i have mentioned that the Nifty target in the fall is 3850. It has a good support at 3850. yesterday Nifty made a low of 3848.25 and bounced back to close at 4093.35 after making a high of 4107.15. It was also mentioned that, the long term investor should start investing in the markets for the minimum period of 1 year. Yesterday the pull back was merely short covering and due to good support at the 3850 levels. Intra day traders might have earned a good amount, but the long term investor migth be feeling left aside. Long term investor will again get a chance to invest. Nifty and Sensex bounced back more than 5% yesterday.

Banking & Real estate stocks which had fallen more then 50%, saw a great short covering. Still the news in the Indian markets are bad, there is no good news in the markets to pull back so fast. Still i would say " WAIT AND WATCH".....

==Nifty support at 3850-3725

In the early session, everyone in the markets were confused on which way the markets are going to move. In the early trading hours Nifty and Sensex both traded in the positive and the negative zone. At times Nifty was down by around 30 points and Sensex by just 3 points. Nifty future was trading at huge discount of 60 points. Sensex rallied up around 150 points but closed below. Senssex closed 500 points down at 12961 below then psycological figure of 13000 and Nifty below 4000 at 3884.

In the between the trading hours the Nifty discount was less at 30-35 points but again widened in the closing hours. In the previous blog i had clearly mentioned that the Nifty target is 3850. There is no positive news to pull back the markets. FII's are net sellers even at these levels. Nifty has a good support at 3850-3725. According to me investors should start buying in the small quantity with the minimum investment period of a year.

==>> Nifty tgt 3850

Markets are in the bearish faze. In the last blog also i have mentioned that this is not the time to buy. WAIT AND WATCH. Markets are looking very week. There is no reason that it will bounce back from here. Nifty closed below 4050, thats are week note. Nifty will touch 3850 within few trading days, and that's gonna be very fast. Watch out for that. I hope my readers are not trapped in the markets, this time. ALL THE VERY BEST. NIFTY HEADING TOWARDS 3850 LEVELS.