Do Onions make u cry???

This is not only Onions which make my cry, but u name any commodity in the current scenario is making me cry. Vegetables, Metals, Milk products, Crude, etc etc. You name anything; you will find their price almost at their all time high.

Onions do make people cry, but the real guys are the one who produce and consume them. Farmers sell their onions to the middle men for just mere 4-5Rs in Nasik and the same is consumed by the consumers at the price of Rs.60-65. The wholesalers and the Retailers rig up the prices so much that the government finds it difficult to control the same. Few days back Indians were exporting Onions to other countries and now will be Import the same. Till now the Government had their eyes closed. The import will again cost Indian economy. I hope now there is no SCAM in this. Otherwise this would be another one to add to the never ending list of Scams. “Onion Scam”, how funny this could be. …. Now after so much pain the govt will interfere and the price will be bought down to Rs30-35, and finally the consumers have to consume at that price.

The US economy expanded at an annual rate in the third quarter. Economist projections ranged from 2.5% to 3.3%. Growing incomes, the continuation of Bush-era tax cuts and an improving labor market may encourage Americans to boost their spending, which accounts for about 70% of the world’s largest economy. US consumer spending rose for a 5^th straight month in Nov and incomes rose slightly more than expected.

But on the other side the UK economy showed slow growth rate, as compared to the estimate in Q3. GDP rose 0.7% from the previous three months. The ECB will lend banks 149.5bn Euros ($196.8 bn) for three months to meet their liquidity needs over the year end period.

Japan economic growth will slow in the fiscal year from April to only half the pace of the current year due to weak exports and consumption. Data this week also showed a pick up in export growth in Nov, but that failed to temper caution about overseas demand because it was partly due to Yen’s pull back from its 15year highs.

Euro gained against the dollar and recovered from all time lows against the Swiss franc, after the announcement of China to buy Portugal’s debt worth 5b Euros. Fitch downgraded Hungary one step to BBB-. The outlook for major of the rating companies are negative, which means they are more likely to reduce the rating to junk that to raise it or keep it changed.

Global markets remained lackluster due to the year ending. Indian markets closed marginally up with a very narrow range. Weeks Turnover was at their lowest levels since 2008 levels. Nifty and Sensex gained just 1% in the week. Smallcap Index gained the most. Index closed 1.8% higher then its previous close, while Midcap Index closed marginally up. Meta Index gained the most in the sector wise performance. It grew 4%. IT index gained 1.8% and Auto Index closed higher by 1.2%.

Hero Honda after its dramatic part with the Honda group tanked in the last few weeks, but gained the most this week. The stock closed up nearly 15%. Rcom surged 10.5% on rumors that some kind of merger is possible in the company. Metal stocks like Sesagoa, Sterlite Ind & Hindalco surged higher in the range of 7-8% while Jspl was up just 4.5%. Ranbaxy, Sunpharma gained in the range of 4.5% -5.5%. On the other side DRL tanked 5.5%, Bpcl corrected 3.8%. Tata motors stocks witnessed some profit booking and corrected3%. ONGC and Sail both corrected nearly2% each.

On the midcap side Bindal Agro surged nearly 45% in a week. Bf 21%. Jubilant Food 13.5%, Pipavav 10%. Sugar stocks rallied in the last 2 trading sessions on back of resuming trading in futures in the commodity exchange. Sugar prices are once again gaining grounds and seem to getting ready for its another dream in the coming year.

Crude Oil is all set to pinch the pockets of everyone. Crude oil had topped almost $93 per barrel and is all set to touch $110.

In the last few trading session the Nifty was facing resistance at it 50DMA and its long term trendline. On Friday Nifty did try to break the same but could not succeed in the same. Sensex closed once again above 20K. Gaining nearly a percent, Sensex closed at 20073.66. To the break the head and the Shoulder pattern, Nifty need to close above the 50DMA and 6070 levels. Nifty once again took support at the 23.6% retracement levels and bounced back marginally. Macd has given some positive divergence. Nifty will find support at 5932-5890. Nifty will find resistance at 6033-6070-6090 levels.

The speculation is there that the Indian markets will witness heavy selling in the month of Jan and the start date will be 3^rd Jan. Leading brokerage house have come out with report mentioning that the 03^rd Jan to be the day from where the Indian equity markets will start its downward journey. Personally I would not believe this. I would rather go technically in the market and wait for the proper opportunity to grab.

Last weeks call performance.

Sell Dr Reddy below 1787 SL 1798 tgt 1776-1753. Tgt achieved. Made a low of 1616

Sell HUL price tgt 289-284. SL triggered.

Buy Icici with a SL of 1101. Made a high of 1145.

This weeks Call

Buy SBI with a SL of 2730 tgt 2792-2805.

Sell Ultratech Cement below 1040 SL 1045 tgt 1030-1018-1007.

Sell Torrent Power with SL of 270

Sell Tata motors belo 1303 SL 1307 tgt 1286- 1269

Buy Suzlon above 51 SL 49.50

Buy Sunpharma above 470 SL 467.

Buy Relcapital With SL of 641.

Buy Rcom with SL of 132.

The estimation is that the Spain has to raise Euro170bn ($226bn) next year, while refinancing needs for its regions total E30bn and for banks around E90bn.

Easing inflation has given the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) enough room to leave interest rates on hold at its policy review. And, as expected the bank has left all rates unaltered. Thus, rates including repo, reverse repo, cash reserve ratio (CRR) stand unchanged at 6.25%, 5.25% and 6%, respectively. Post lunch session India markets continued to surged higher.

Last three weeks the only buzz in the market is the scams that are going bust now days… As I have mentioned that the list of the scams in India are growing. Heard in the markets that the DMK pulling out the support to Congress. Markets remained very volatile through the week. Fears of DMK removing the support triggered some sell off in the market.

Moil got listed on the brousers with a premium of 55-60%. Before the listing the premium in the grey market have drastically fallen down from nearly Rs300-350 to just Rs200-250. On the listing day Moil opened at 590 and the sell off came and closed at

Nifty made a low of 5795 and high of 5956 to close at 5948 up by 57 points on the last day of the trading session. Nifty to breakout out above its wave theory should close above 6070 levels. Nifty will find resistance at 5966-5987-6033 levels. If Nifty turns down again and closes below the 5890 levels then we could see 5800-5700 levels again in the near future. Below 5700 there could be carnage in the market.

Nifty once again took support at its 38.2% retracement levels and the trend changed. On the last day of the trading week Nifty closed above its 23.6% retracement levels. In last one month Nifty for the 1^st time closed above its 20DMA. This could trigger that the Nifty is all set to move up once again. The RSI have given positive move and the MACD is all set to give positive divergence.

Midcap stocks after the sharp fall in the prices have started picking up. Stocks which have not been named in connection with any price rigging matter have been on the buyer’s radar. Market should continue to rally till the time there is no bad news in the market.

Sell Dr Reddy below 1787 SL 1798 tgt 1776-1753.

Sell HUL price tgt 289-284.

Buy Icici with a SL of 1101.

Important US Economic data to watch from 13/12/2010 to 17/12/2010

TIME (ET) REPORT PERIOD

MONDAY, DEC. 13 None scheduled
Tuesday, DEC. 14
7:30 am NFIB index Nov.
8:30 am Producer price index Nov.
8:30 am Core PPI Nov.
8:30 am Retail sales Nov.
8:30 am Retail sales ex-autos Nov.
10:00 am Business inventories Oct.
2:15 pm FOMC Meeting announcement
Wednesday, Dec. 15
8:30 am Consumer price index Nov.
8:30 am Core CPI Nov.
8:30 am Empire manufacturing index Dec.
9:00 am Treasury International Capital
9:15 am Industrial production Nov.
10:00 am Housing market index Dec.
10:30 am EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday, Dec. 16
8:30 am Jobless claims Dec.11
8:30 am Housing starts Nov.
8:30 am Building Permits Nov.
8:30 am Current account 3Q
10:00 am Philadelphia Fed Survey Dec.
10:30 am EIA Natural Gas Report
FRIDAY, Dec. 17
10:00 am Leading indicators Nov.

The List is growing…..

The last weeks Article named “India the den for the Scamsters” really fits well for the Indian economy. This week the list have been update with few more name like Sanjay Dangi, KP… And the list is just growing..

Q2 farm sector growth at 4.4% V/s 0.90% (YOY) Q2 manufacturing growth 9.80 % V/s 8.4 %, Construction growth 8.8% V/s 8.30%, Mining sector growth 8% V/s 10.10%, Service sector growth at 9.80% GDP growth 8.8% V/s 8.7%..

The government today approved additional capital infusion of Rs 6,000Cr in 10 public sector banks with an objective to raise its holding to a minimum 58 per cent in all state-run banks. The government has already announced infusion of Rs 15,000Cr in the Budget to ensure that capital adequacy ratio of all the public sector banks increase to 7 per cent. The increase will give banks additional headroom to raise funds from capital markets without depending on the government.

After the approval of the Euro85bn emergency aid package for Ireland worries are still there for the much bigger problem in Portugal and Spain. The Euro dipped below $1.30 for the first time since mid Sep. The risk of the Europe is that Spain’s Economy is twice as big as that of Greece, Ireland & Portugal combined. So the Euro regions 750bn euro bailout fund may not be big enough if the country resorts to aid.

US jobless claims was up at 436000 an increase by 26000 since last week, indicating the labour markets will take time to improve.

Fresh short positions and partial profit taking were seen in Shipping Corporation of India, where the open interest surged 44% on speculation that the shares from the follow-on public offering will list at a price lower than current market price, a derivatives dealer said. The same thing happened with PGIL also. Before the FPO closed the stock was trading at 101-103 levels but till the new shares listing the price collapsed to 97 levels.

Last times article says “5700 is supposed to be a very crucial level for the Nifty. It is that point from where the Nifty had fallen down on 21^st Jan 08. The open and low on that day was 5700 and 4977 and the close was 5208.80. Nifty for the 2^nd consecutive close below the 5700 may be really bad for the Indian equity markets. Nifty may continue to fall it 5490 levels. That’s nearly its 50% retracement levels that can be seen in the chart.”

But the Nifty took good support at the same and bounced back. It was unexpected that the Nifty will bounce back till 6000 levels. But the 5700 level acted as a pillar to the Nifty. The dark clouds are still not out of the Indian markets. Everyday we are hearing new scams in the Indian equity markets. Recently Sanjay Dangi and some promoters of the companies are barred to trade in the markets.

As mentioned the Nifty is nearing its oversold zone. And closed below 5700 will take the Nifty to 5490 levels, but Nifty took good support at 5700 levels and bounced back sharply to make a Intraweek high of 6029 to face resistance at its 20DMA. Nifty on Monday took good support at its 50DMA and the Long term trendline. Nifty took good support at its 38.2% retracement levels which the writer had mentioned in his last article.

But the recovery seems to be very fast.

Markets have bounced back sharply. Nifty will face resistance at 6030. Close above the same will take the Nifty to 6056- 6079-6150 levels. We are still not sure that the markets are strong or this is just a start of the new Wave pattern in the downside. Nifty will find support at 5900-5860. Close below 5800 will once again take the Nifty to 5700 levels.

But in the weekly chart of Nifty after its 3 weeks continue downfall Nifty had finally pulled up. 3 Black crow patterns have been made in the Nifty weekly chart and after that it is normally seen that the next trading session is positive. And this week Nifty gained and closed above at 5992. But the in the weekly char the nifty is still facing resistance at it trendline shown in the chart. But still traders can trade with the levels provided.

Last weeks call

Sell Bajaj Auto below 1611 SL of 1616 tgt 1600-1587. Tgt achieved made a low of 1548.

Buy Boi above 429 SL 418 tgt 440-446-452. Tgt achieved made a high of 499.

Buy BEL above 1725 SL 1715 tgt 1747-1755. Tgt achieved made a high of 1759.

Buy Drreddy above 1794 SL 1785. Tgt achieved made a high of 1835.

Sell Hdfc bank below 2290 SL 2300 tgt 2276-2254. Tgt achieved made a low of 2258.

This week Calls.

Sell Acc below 980 SL 987 Tgt 970-965-950

Sell AshokLeyland below 71.50 SL 73.

Buy Bajaj Auto close above 1608 SL 1600 tgt 1630-1649.

Buy Ril close above 1010. SL 1000 tgt 1028-1034-1050

Sell Sbi below 3060 Sl 3070. tgt 3050-3039-3024

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India the den for the Scamsters

This writer had been constantly updating the reader of the Informed Investor that Indian markets are in a Bear trap and the Nifty could test 5700 levels. So here are we. Nifty close below 5700 mark.

Last weeks article (In the chart we can clearly see that the Nifty closed below it trendline which was drawn since quite a long time and its 23.6% retracement levels. Nifty below 5800 will come down to 5705 with immediate support. On the upside Nifty will continue to face resistance at resistance at 6020. Last week the MACD had given the sell signal with RSI trending downwards. Sensex immediate support will be at 19445. This week Nifty closed below its 50DMA.)

Last weeks call

Sell Adani below 736 SL of 744, tgt 706. Tgt achieved made a low of 698.

Sell Bob below 936 tgt 923 – 911 SL 945. Tgt achieved made a low of 836.

Sell Biocon below 392 SL 397 tgt 380. Tgt achieved made a low of 360.

Sell Hdfc bank below 2292 tgt 2255 SL 2314. Made a low of 2276.

Sell Lic housing SL of 1308 tgt 1263. Tgt achieved made a low of 931.

Sell Hindalco below 210 tgt 195 SL 214. Tgt achieved made a low of 194.

Sell Icici bank below 1140. tgt 1100. Tgt achieved made a low of 1091.

Sell Mnm Tgt 735. SL of 759. Tgt achieved made a low of 734.

Sell Ril below 980 Tgt 960. Tgt achieved made a low of 958.

It seems that in the near India will also need Austerity measures. The way the Indian BABU’s are laundering the money it seems that India will surely be on SALE after few years. India has been hit with series of Scam in the last few months. From CWG to LIC housing scam. Adarsh case or land scam in AP. Even the Panwallas in Ahmedabad are involved in scam. Lic loan scam is nearly Rs.1600Cr and name nearly 21 real estate companies involvement.

The amount which the Indian government are raising by selling stake in the govt holding companies are just going in the pockets of the Big B’s, I mean to Big Babu’s. The way the govt is raising money and the FII pouring money in our Economy is amazingly high. But the trust on which the money is coming may be losing out. LIC housing is one of the script high is in high demand in some of the FII’s. But the mutli-dollar scam could really effect. Lic which is one of the very sound companies in India seems to have been in questioning by the CBI.

It seems that 26/11 as a date is not good for the Indians or specially the Mumbaikar’s. Few Years back the attack on Mumbai and the crash in the Indian markets seems to have affected whole of India. On the last day of the week Nifty tanked below 5700 levels. North Korean fired dozens of artillery at one of the South Korean island. In return South Korean too fired back. Global markets tanked on the news of the war between the two countries. Sensex tanked nearly 600 points on that day.

Rupee slipped down to 45.85/$ to the lowest since mid Sep. FII for the weak remained Net seller to the tune of nearly Rs3KCr. On the other hand DII bought stocks worth Rs.2KCr.

As mentioned in my earlier article also the Indian markets are in the Bearish trend and Nifty will fall till 5800 mark and close below the same will take the Nifty to 5700 levels. Yes Here we are… Nifty on the last day of the week made an Intraday low of 5690 but recovered sharply to close at 5752 down by 47 points, Sensex closed at 19136 down 181 points.

This week Korean war, Loan Scam everything affected the Indian markets. Due to the effect Sensex & Nifty slipped 2.5% in a week. Smallcap and the Midcap Index tanked 5-7%. Real Estate was the Major index which closed down 14%. Metals cooled off with 6.5% loss. Cap goods tanked 5.5%. Oil and Gas were down by 4%. After the banking personal names taken in the Bribery case, the Bank Index cooled off 3.4%.

Lic Housing after the Loan Scam tanked 28% in the week. Some of the real estate names which were in focus due to the Loan scam and the Money matters scam faced the heat and dropped down heavily on their knees. Hcc & Orbit corp closed down 29%. Hdil 22%, Ibreal 21%, Jp ass 12.5%, DLF 6%. IIFL which had taken out a buy report on the Money matter just few days before the scam came in notice saw a sharp fall in its market cap and the stock price collapsed nearly 25%. Some of the other stocks which crashed during the weeks tradin session are Suzlon13%, Sesagoa 9%, Sterlite 8.5%, Rcap 8%, Sail 6.8%, Lnt 5.5%, Sbi 4.5%, Renuka 16%. Coreproject crashed 40% in the intraday trade but recovered almost full in the post lunch session.

As mentioned in my articles that the Nifty had taken support at the 23.6% retracement levels and the trendline. Fall below the same will take the Nifty to 5700 levels. Nifty made a low nearly at 38.20% retracement levels. Close below the same and the Long term trendline will take the nifty to its new low at 50% retracement level that comes nearly at 5490 levels. Nifty closed below its 100DMA. And the RSI is nearing its oversold zone.

5700 is supposed to be a very crucial level for the Nifty. It is that point from where the Nifty had fallen down on 21^st Jan 08. The open and low on that day was 5700 and 4977 and the close was 5208.80. Nifty for the 2^nd consecutive close below the 5700 may be really bad for the Indian equity markets. Nifty may continue to fall it 5490 levels. That’s nearly its 50% retracement levels that can be seen in the chart.

This Weeks call

Sell Bajaj Auto below 1611 SL of 1616 tgt 1600-1587.

Buy Boi above 429 SL 418 tgt 440-446-452.

Buy BEL above 1725 SL 1715 tgt 1747-1755.

Buy Drreddy above 1794 SL 1785.

Sell Hdfc bank below 2290 SL 2300 tgt 2276-2254.

Even with the strong global cues, Indian markets tanked in the late hours on the F&O expiry date. Nifty slipped 66 points to close down marginally below its crucial support level of 5800 levels. nifty closed down at 5799. Sensex in the late tanked nearly 140 points to give a close of 19318. Lic housing scam have really shaken the trust of the locals and even the Foreign investors. Yesterday the stock tanked nearly 18% and today opened week. As mentioned in my earlier article also the close below the trendline will take the NIfty to 5700 levels, but there is still good support at 5800 levels. Nifty will find minor support at 5760-5760 levels thats where the 100DMA comes.

On monday when the markets pulled up, most of the traders thought that its the end of the bear market, but this writer pointed out that the markets are still in the controls of the Bears and the Nifty can touch 5800 levels. SO HERE ARE WE...... below 5800 mark.

Sell AxisBank below 1336 tgt 1307 SL 1343.

Sell CanaraBank below 674 SL 683 tgt 666- 661 -655.

Korean Tremor

Indian markets felt the Korean Tremours. Today North Korean fired dozens of artillery at one of the South Korean Island. In return of South Korean also fired. After after some hours the battle between the Korean settled, but till that it had done major blast in the Equity markets. It felt that the Koreans had fired our Bse and Nse exchange too. Sensex tumbled down nearly 600 points to make a low of 19342. Nifty tanked nearly3 % to make a low of 5824. Both the Indices recovered some of their lost ground to settle at 19691 down by just 270 points and Nifty at 5934 down by 75 points.

If we look at the chart, we can see that the nifty in the last 3 trading session closed above the trendline. Infact if we take the retracement levels, the 23.60% retracement levels comes nearly at the same levels. Today Nifty after recovering made a HAMMER like pattern. Nifty close below that trendline will take the nifty to 5700 levels. The trend is still very confusing as the Chart shows that the NIfty is still in the hands of the bears and close below the trendline will be bad, but the last sessions hammer like pattern may also trigger the shorters to cover up their shorts. But the confirmation will come only after tommorrows trading session. Nifty will find support at 5800 and resistance at 5980 levels.

Buy bajaj Auto above 1605 SL 1585 tgt 1614-1622-1630.

Short BOI below 468 tgt 463-455 SL 475.

Scam, Scam and just Scam

Its just scam everywhere. 3G scam, Adarsh Society scam in Mumbai, land scam in AP, Chara scam in Bihar etc…... You take any paper, read it; you will find only news about the scams in India. According to me the names should be changed to “The Scams of India”, “The Scam Times”, and “Scam Times”….. Indian politicians have dug a bigger hole than the British people. I wish we could still have been in the British rule. At least they have given many good things to India. Our current politicians have eaten up nearly $12L-Cr or $440 bn since our Independence. In still we are not an Independent country. British have given this country many things which are now consider heritage, but these politicians of Indian have filled up their own stomach and we common people are still the same. (This is not to hurt anyone’s feeling). Our common people are doing their best at NASA, Olympics, major IT have most of the staff from India. But we are still lacking behind. Last 3yrs we are listing that Swiss banks are flooded up with the Indian Black Money but our government have still not taken any steps to find out. Till now surely the money might have been laundered to some other country. FII’s will surely be worried about the Government strength in the coming years.

Next year, the U.S. government will have to borrow $4.2 trillion, according to the IMF. That's 27.8% of its annual economic output, up from 26.5% this year. By comparison, Greece needs $69 billion, or 23.8% of its annual gross domestic product. The point here is that with so much borrowing needed, interest rates are bound to continue rising.

According to me, with all of the borrowing that is taking place by countries around the world, interest rates are bound to continue climbing. According to estimates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the amount of money that advanced-nation governments will need to borrow in 2011 is a staggering $10.2 trillion. These debt levels have not been seen since the aftermath of World War II.

Revenue collections from indirect taxes i.e. Customs Duty, Central Excise and Service Tax have increased by 42.4% at the all-India level in the first seven months of the current financial year 2010-11 over the same period last year.

Asian markets tumbled down after South Korea’s Central Bank raised interest rates to curb inflation. Raisin rates may lead to slowing in growth rate. Asian countries are still worried as China may also take some similar actions. China has once again hiked the rates.

Rumors floated in the market that the PM has resigned after the 2G Scam. There were links forward from the Times of India e-paper.

This writer through this leading paper “Informed Investor” and through the blogspot” www.technicalsvishaldangaich.blogspot.com” has been continuously informing the reader to be cautious in the market. Indian markets are run up very fast we might surely see some serious correction. Nifty today closed below its support levels of 5980. This will surely call for some serious selling pressure in the Indian markets.

Continuing its downtrend, Indian markets once again tanked. Major Indices Sensex & Nifty tumbled down nearly 3% week on week basis. Small Cap Index had to bare the heat, which fell down more than 6%, while Midcap Index closed down 3% in red.

Reality stocks were the most that were affected. Reality Index fell down 9%. Oil & Gas index by 5%, Bankex tanked 3.4%. Metal Index corrected to the extent of 3.3%, IT 2.7 & Capital Goods by 2.5%. Mukesh and Anil Ambani stocks were in limelight. After the 3G Scam, Ril com sinked 13%, Ril Cap 12%, Ril Infra 10% and Ril Power by 8.4%. Adag might have surely lost most of his market cap in this week. Ril Ind tanked 6.5% to close below Rs.1000 at 996.

Axis bank merger with Enam Sec for consideration of Rs.2100cr to be paid to Enam. This flooded the markets with news that there will be some more same kind of merger in the markets. But the banks exposure in the MFI’s made a point of worry in the markets. Banking stocks fell like a dead pin. Axis bank corrected nearly 8%. JP associated lost 7%, Wipro 6%, Dlf 5.8%, T-Motor 5%, Suzlon and Cairn 6%, Hcc 10%, Chambal 6.5% ACL 7.8%.

In my last article I had clearly mentioned that the Nifty is made a Double Top formation in the daily chart. Nifty could not sustain above 6300 levels and corrected to close below its 20DMA. At the early days when the Nifty was approaching the 6300 levels and was trading above in overbought zone, that time also this writer had informed the reader that the RSI is trending downwards and the Nifty index is going upwards, that makes the same situation as in Jan 2008 scenario. Since then the markets remained volatile and tanked. Finally nifty is nearly its psychological figure of 6000. In my last article also I had mentioned that the Nifty close below 5980 levels, Nifty will come to 5800 levels. Nifty closed at 5890 down 3% in this week.

In the chart we can clearly see that the Nifty closed below it trendline which was drawn since quite a long time and its 23.6% retracement levels. Nifty below 5800 will come down to 5705 with immediate support. On the upside Nifty will continue to face resistance at resistance at 6020. Last week the MACD had given the sell signal with RSI trending downwards. Sensex immediate support will be at 19445. This week Nifty closed below its 50DMA.

Last weeks call

Sell AB Nuvo below 818 with SL of 825 tgt 801-791. Tgt achieved.

Sell Axis Bank below 1481 SL of 1489 tgt 1447. Tgt achieved. Made a low of 1370.

Buy Bajaj Auto above 1596. SL 1588. Did not trigger the price

Sell Corporation Bank below 763 tgt 746- 735 tgt 769. Tgt achieved. Made a low of 700.

Sell Glenmark below 344 tgt 338- 331. Tgt almost achieved. Made a low of 333.

Sell Hdfc bank below 2305 tgt 2240 SL of 2325. Tgt achieved. Made a low of 2303.

Sell Hindalco below 221 tgt 213- 201. Tgt almost achieved. Made a low of 206..

This Weeks call

Sell Acc below 736 SL of 744, tgt 706.

Sell Bob below 936 tgt 923 – 911 SL 945.

Sell Biocon below 392 SL 397 tgt 380.

Sell Hdfc bank below 2292 tgt 2255 SL 2314

Sell Lic housing SL of 1308 tgt 1263.

Sell Hindalco below 210 tgt 195 SL 214

Sell Icici bank below 1140. tgt 1100

Sell Mnm Tgt 735. SL of 759.

Sell Ril below 980 Tgt 960.

Nifty after a long period of nearly 5 months closed below its 50DMA. Nifty closed below its crucial levels of 6000. Nifty closed at 5988 down 132 points and Sensex closed in red 19865 nearly 450 points. Asian markets were trading flat to -ve when Indian markets opened. Europe markets opened up week. Shangai markets were trading down nearly 4%. Indian markets too faced the heat and collapsed with no sign of recovery. As mentioned in my last few artciles also that recovery is not in sight. yesterday Nifty closed just above its support at the trendline.

Nifty after making a double top tanked today after the lunch session. According to Fibonacci Theory, the levels from 4786 to 6300 levels. the first retracement levels comes to 23.60% which is at 5935. Nifty has good support at 5980 levels. Nifty made a low of 5970 but closed above the same. Close below the 5980 levels for 2 consecutive days may call for more selling pressure and we may see Nifty at 5800 levels also.

Sell DLF below 314 SL of 316 tgt 301.
Sell Icici Bank below 1200 SL of 1209 tgt 1177-1163
Sell SBi with a SL of 3094 tgt 3061- 3043.
Sell T Motors with SL of 1210 tgt 1187-----.

Yesterday we have seen a very volatile movement of our market. After opening on a subdued note, Nifty fell to make a low of 6039.75 and then it rose to make a high of 6128.65. At the end of day Nifty closed at 6121.60. It had a net gain of 49.95 points or 0.82% over the previous day’s close. On the sectoral front, Banking, Health care and Information technology stocks were on the buyers’ radar. However, selling was seen on Realty and Consumer durable stocks.
After opening at 6079.90, Nifty traded in the band of 6040 and 6100 maximum hours of yesterday’s trading session. However, a buying was seen towards the closing session and finally the bulls were able to manage Nifty above 6120. The short term crucial support of Nifty lies at 5930. If it breaches 5930, it may test the level of 5820. However, if it is able to maintain above 6230, it may go up to the
level of 6340
On an intra-day basis Nifty has a support at 6090 and is likely to face a stiff resistance near 6150. If Nifty breaks 6090, it may further go down to 6060 and then 6035. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 6150, the level of 6185-6230 would become the next target. But still the recovery is not in sight. It may be just a bounce back rally. confirmation will come within 1 -2 trading session.

Buy AFL with SL of 56.50 cmp 58.20
Buy Infosys above 3040. SL 3030

China reported its biggest monthly trade surplus in 3 months for Oct. China’s customs agency reported Wed that the nation’s merchandise trade surplus increased to $27.15bn in Oct from a five month low of $16.6bn in Sep. due to a slowdown in imports, particularly of commodities.

Irish and international banks’ loan losses in the country may total least 85 billion euros ($117 billion), central bank Governor Patrick Honohan. Mortgage defaults may push the cost of Ireland’s bank bailout to 70 billion euros, more than the government’s estimate of 50 billion euros.

Asian stock markets fell Friday on concern China might further tighten credit and fears about Europe's debt crisis as global leaders meeting in South Korea struggled to soothe currency tensions. Markets were on edge as leaders from the Group of 20 major advanced and developing nations struggled at a summit in Seoul to resolve a U.S.-China currency dispute that threatens to escalate into a global trade war. Adding to negative sentiment was mounting speculation that Ireland - one of Europe's most financially troubled countries - would not be able to cut public spending and may have to resort to a bailout.

Oil has once again shown strength. Oil rose to its 25 month highs above $88 barrel on Thursday. Demand in the world’s top two oil consuming nation. China’s industrial production grew 13.1% in Oct from a year earlier, sending oil use in the world’s second biggest consumer to a record 8.92 million barrels per day.

In the G20 summit, there is surely going to be a big debate on the currency part. US will find difficult to prove that the China deliberately undervalues its currency to gain a trade advantage. US say a higher valued Yuan would make a Chinese exports costlier and US imports cheaper for the Chinese to buy. This way the US may reduce its trade deficit with China.

Late hour selling in the Indian markets were just the same as it was seen in the Korean Markets. Korean Index Kospi tanked nearly 3% in the last few minutes of trade on Thursday. Indian markets too corrected in the last few trading minutes.

Indian markets too reacted fairly in line with the Global markets. Major Indices tanked nearly 4% on week on week close. Midcap, Small Cap too could not bare the heat and corrected by 2.9% and 1.3% respectively. Reality Index closed down 6.8% while Bankex corrected by 6.1%, Capital goods Index by 4%, Metals 3.2%, IT 2.6% and Oil & Gas 4.2%.

Frontline stocks saw a massive sell off. After a smooth run up in the last week a group stocks fell like cards. Sbi corrected 13.5%, Bhel 6.2%, Ongc and Icici Bank by 6%. Bharti Airtel after the announcement of its Quarterly results tanked 7.5% on back of its loss on its South African unit. Other stocks which dragged the indices down were Cipla, Rcom, Relcap, and Ranbaxy fell 6 – 6.5% range. DLF by 8.5%, Idfc by 12%.

Coal India made its debut on the brousers. FPO of Powergrid has already attracted nearly 9 times the size of the FPO.

A similar pattern like a Double top pattern has been formed in the nifty and the Sensex chart. Nifty made a high and low of 6335 and 6056. Nifty closed at 6071. Sensex closed at 20156 after making an intra week high and low of 21075 and 20108. Nifty for the first time since Jan 2008 closed higher above 6300 levels, but could not sustain the sell off and corrected immediately from the next day onwards. Nifty which was in the formation of the Head and shoulder pattern in the last week corrected and closed below its 20DMA. Nifty found resistance at its 100% Fibonacci Retracement levels and corrected from there. Nifty did close above its 100% retracement level but tanked to make a low of 6056.

RSI should a sudden change in the trend. MACD is also in the way to give negative divergence. Nifty will find immediate support at 6024 levels. Below 6020 levels fall will continue till 5059 levels. Close below the same will trigger more sell off and the Nifty will hault near 5800 levels. Upside is capped for some period. Nifty has taken support at the trendline which was drawn since last week in the charts. On the higher side Nifty will continue to face resistance at 6144-6199 levels.

Last weeks call

Buy united Spirit with a SL of 1475. SL triggered.

Sell united Spirit below 1475 tgt. 1463. Made a low of 1400. Tgt achieved

Buy Torrent Power with SL of 295 tgt 320. SL triggered.

Sell Tcs close below 1050 SL 1060. SL triggered but made a low of 1048.

Buy Tata Steel above 611. SL of 601. Made a high of 647.

Buy Axis Bank above 1543 tgt 1552-1565. Made a high of 1584. tgt achieved.

Buy Baja Auto with a SL of 1575 tgt 1596-1606. Made a high of 1622. tgt achieved.

Buy Hdfc bank above 2380 SL of 2371. Made a high of 2420.

Buy Hdfc above 718 SL of 712. Made a high of 745.

This weeks call

Sell AB nuvo below 818 with SL of 825 tgt 801-791.

Sell Axis Bank below 1481 SL of 1489 tgt 1447.

Buy Bajaj Auto above 1596. SL 1588.

Sell Corporation Bank below 763 tgt 746- 735 tgt 769.

Sell Glenmark below 344 tgt 338- 331

Sell Hdfc bank below 2305 tgt 2240 SL of 2325.

Sell Hindalco beloe 221 tgt 213- 201

Dated 11th Nov 2010

Late hour selling in the Indian markets were just the same as it was seen in the Korean Markets. Korean Index Kospi tanked nearly 3% in the last few minutes of trade. Nifty also sinked nearly 81 to close at 6194 and Sensex fell down 286 to close at 20589. Chart suggest that the Nifty has made a double top formation and corrected from the same levels. As mentioned in my earlier article also the Nifty will face resistance at 6340 levels and it corrected from almost that levels. Nifty will fall down to find support only at 6144 levels. Fall below the same will take the Nifty to 6114.

Sell SBI below 3166 SL 3175 tgt 3142-3133.

Sell Ril below 1077 tgt 1066-1063.

Sell Relcap below 814 tgt 801.

Sell Idbi below 193 tgt 189- 180.

Markets opened up flat and then corrected a bit. Through out the trading session Indian markets remained very volatile. At one point of time Sensex slipped down 85 points in red and pull back sharply nearly 100 points in green. Traders had their day out today. Sensex closed at 20932 up 80 points and Nifty closed up 23 points at 6301. On the Diwali mahurat trading day Nifty for the first time since 2008 closed above the 6300 levels. But slipped soon after on the next day. Today once again Nifty closed above 6300 mark will good volumes. Nifty will continue to face resistance at 6340-6357levels.

IFCI looks good with a short term target of 85++
Sell IDBI below 193. SL 194.6
Buy bharti Airtel above 335.75. SL 328.

Happy Diwali 2010- Buy Silver this time.

As mentioned in my previous many article.

BUY Only Silverrrrrrr…… on this Dhanterassssss.

This will surely give u much more returns than the gold. The use of Silver in the industrial area will surely keep on increasing but will never fade out. Last time I had given a buy on this commodity, when it was trading at $17 now its trading nearly at $24.50. Buy with a long term prospective.

As this week we have only 4 trading days available, but the volume loss with 1 trading day will be surely recovered tomorrow itself with the listing of Coal India IPO. Premium for the stock is Rs.38-40

RBI hiked reverse repo and repo rates by 25 bps at 5.25% and 6.25% respectively. CRR has been left unchanged at 6%. FY11 GDP forecast remains unchanged at 8.5%.

The real estate stocks fell on Thursday after the central bank tightened the provisions for housing loans. Imposing a ceiling on the loan-to-value ration and the higher provisioning requirement for teaser rates will have an impact on the residential segment in the short term. The RBI capped the loan-to-value ration for housing loan exposure at 80% from 85-90%, increased the risk weight for residential housing loans worth Rs.75L and more to 125% and raised the standard asset provisioning by commercial banks for teaser home loans to 2% to 0.5%.

The day the Indian markets started moving upside, we left behind the US issues. No one’s talking about the issues still prevailing in the US markets. Unemployment rate this week is at 26year high. Housing prices are still its low. Even the Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the global crisis believes that the US will grow at a lower pace at 1% or even low and the Japan is the country which is an accident waiting to happen. Risk of Double Dip recession remains. The dark clouds are still not our from the international markets. There are still lot of bank going the bankruptcy way.

As this week the Informed investor paper is printed on Thursday, the below mentioned calls are updated as of Wednesday s close.

After a negative close on the last day of the week ended 29^th Oct 2010. Indian markets opened with great strength on Monday and close once again above the 6000 levels. On Wednesday Nifty closed up 41 points at 6160 after making a high of 6182. Sensex closed at 20465 up by 120 points on Wednesday.

The Head and Shoulder pattern which was in the formation in the Nifty Daily chart has been broken and Nifty closed above the marked trendline. RSI had also given a buy signal and the MACD is in the process of giving a breakout signal. RSI have taken a good support at the trendline and turned positive. Confirmation will come only after 2 days trading session only. Nifty will continue to face stiff resistance 6186-6200-6220 levels. Close above 6240 may take the Nifty to new levels. Support is at 6080 levels.

As mentioned in my previous many article.

BUY Only Silverrrrrrr…… on this Dhanterassssss.

This will surely give u much more returns than the gold. The use of Silver in the industrial area will surely keep on increasing but will never fade out. Last time I had given a buy on this commodity, when it was trading at $17 now its trading nearly at $24.50. Buy with a long term prospective.

Last weeks call

Buy Adani Ent above 712 SL 704. made a high of 782.90

Sell Biocon below 405 tgt 391-386 SL 411. Did not trigger.

Sell Cromptom below 317 tgt 305 SL 325. Did not trigger.

Sell Hdil below 244 tgt 236-232. Did not trigger.

Buy Icici bank above 1169 SL 1163. made a high of 1255.

Sell Rilinfra below 1032 SL 1047 tgt 1007. Did not trigger.

This weeks call

Buy united Spirit with a SL of 1475.

Sell united Spirit below 1475 tgt

Buy Torrent Power with SL of 295 tgt 320.

Sell Tcs close below 1050 SL 1060.

Buy Tata Steel above 611. SL of 601.

Buy Axis Bank above 1543 tgt 1552-1565.

Buy Baja Auto with a SL of 1575 tgt 1596-1606.

Buy Hdfc bank above 2380 SL of 2371.

Buy Hdfc above 718 SL of 712.

I came across a SMS that says:

It’s a Black Magic week for 3 reasons.

1. Coal India Listing (Black Color)
2. Amavaysa (Black Day)

Arrival of Obama In India (know everyone knows that, I don’t need to tell)

Coal Coal Coal.. its everywhere.

Coal India is on its way to make debut on the Indian markets. On the listing day the market cap of the script will be nearly about Rs1.50L Cr, ahead of the Diwali Festive season which is due in the next week. Sebi has also increased the IPO limit for the retail investors to Rs.2L up from Rs.1Lac. This will trigger more inflows in the Equity market.

FII for the first time turned out to be sellers in last 1-1.5 month. Profits booking were seen in the Indian markets. Sensex breached the 20000 levels and Nifty 6000 levels. But closed marginally higher above the said levels.

If we look at the chart the Nifty is still showing weakness and on Thursday Nifty closed below its Head and Shoulder pattern and slipped below the 6000 levels. But the said support level of 5980-5930 levels seems to be very strong and the nifty on Friday bounced back from the said levels. Sensex made a low of 19768 and closed at 20032 up by 91 points on the last day of the week.

According to the Fibonacci Theory, if we take the low of nifty from 4786 that was made in the month of May after a long sideway movement and the High of 6284 levels. 6284 was the levels; I had recommended that the Indian markets will surely see some correction. The 23.60% retracement levels come nearly 5930 levels. And today Nifty had made a low of 5937. On Thursday Nifty breakdown its Head and Shoulder pattern and closed below at 5987 after making a low of 5968. Nifty if closes below the 23.60% retracement levels then we might see some more correction coming on the way.

In the weekly chart Nifty is still trading in its overbought zone, but in the daily charts Nifty is well near the comfort zone. But still it’s in the bear trap. And the revival is still not in sight. Nifty will resistance at 6037-6057 levels. Close above 6057 will take the nifty to 6150 levels, but that still seems to be out of reach as of now.

This weeks Call:

Buy Adani Ent above 712 SL 704.

Sell Biocon below 405 tgt 391-386 SL 411.

Sell Cromptom below 317 tgt 305 SL 325.

Sell Hdil below 244 tgt 236-232.

Buy Icici bank above 1169 SL 1163.

Sell Rilinfra below 1032 SL 1047 tgt 1007.

The markets staged a recovery in the last hour of trade, led by buying in oil & gas, capital goods, power, select technology and financial companies’ shares. At the end of the trading session, both the Sensex and Nifty, managed to close above their psychologically important levels - 20,000 and 6,000, respectively.
However, selling continued for stocks of cement and FMCG companies along with Bharti Airtel, Wipro, Tata Power, ICICI Bank, Maruti, Sterlite, M&M, Cipla, Sesa Goa, Hindalco and HDFC. Sensex closed at 20,168, up 44 points and the Nifty at 6,076, up 13 points. Coal India IPO opened for subscription today for retail and institutional clients. The company has set a reasonably cheap price band of Rs 225-245. The government intends to raise as much as USD 3.5 billion from the IPO.
Asian shares – Asian markets were mixed on Monday following subdued trading session in Wall Street on Friday. Additionally, the ending of the proposed USD 116 billion iron ore deal between Australian mining giants BHP Billiton & Rio Tinto dragged down resources plays. The deal was rejected by anti-trust regulators in Europe and Asia. Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock average fell 0.02% to 9,498.50. Broader Topix gained marginally, 0.50% to 830.52, and Australia’s S&P/ASX lost 37 points or 0.80% to end the session at 4,651.90.
European shares – Taking a cue from Asian markets and strengthening USD, Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures lost 0.8% in the morning trade. All major European indices saw a marginal change from Friday’s close.
USD bounced from a 10-month low against a basket of currencies on Monday, as investors trimmed bearish bets against the greenback on some uncertainty about how the Federal Reserve will react. This in turn halted rally in precious metals and further extended downfall in oil.
Nifty in the intraday made a low of 5985 and closed above the 6000 mark at 6075.95. Nifty took good support at 20DMA and bounced back. As per the Japanesse candlestick pattern "Bullish Hammer pattern" have been created, but the conformation will be only after tommorrows trading session. nifty will face resistance at 6145 levels.

ALL THAT GLITTER IS NOT GOLD

ALL THAT GLITTER IS NOT GOLD

As everyone knows that “All that Glitter is not gold”. Indian markets were near their all time. FII’s flows were very positive since the last month. Markets continued its northward journey. Gaining nearly 500 points in a single day, everyone thought that the markets will definitely make a new high in the current week. But this did not happen. Rally seems to be halted for a while.

As per the Wave theory the rally which started from 5100 levels continued to make a high of 6284.10. (See the Chart attached with). In the fifth wave Nifty rally should have been over at 6296.80 levels and Nifty in the week made a high of 6284.10 and then corrected. If this is true, then the downward journey should first have a target of 5601 levels. But that will entirely depend on the flows in India. Retail customers have been booking profits on back of the coming Coal India IPO, so as the big institutions too. Rally will more depend on the coming results season too. As mentioned in my earlier also that the Nifty if corrects will directly halt at 6073-6035 levels. And so here we are. Nifty closed at 6602 down 115 points on the last day of the trading session for the week. Sensex lost nearly 375 points, but some how managed to close above 20000 mark.

Government will do the good to keep the markets moving upwards as they do not want the India’s mega IPO to get a lackluster response. Coal India is offering nearly 66.33Crs shares at a price band of Rs.225-245 a share to raise Rs.15K Cr.

Indian markets witnessed slight correction. Major Indices corrected nearly 0.8% in a week. Midcap & Junior Index too corrected 0.50% & 1.80%, while Small cap index also only the Index which managed to close above almost 1.2%. Heavyweights corrected in the week. SBI after its rally in the last few weeks corrected nearly 2.8%, Axis bank closed down by 4.5%. Lnt, Dlf, Rcom corrected in the range of 2-3%. Hero Honda by 3.4%, Ntpc by 4.7%, Bpcl by 6.8%. Fertilizers stocks seems to have their best trading days after a very long time. Chambal fertilizer rallied 25%, Rcf 27%, Nagarjuna Fertliser

14%.

Dark clouds are still not out of the American people. Jobless claims continued to rise. At the same time, record high imports form China helped pushed the US trade deficit wider in Aug, while rising food and energy prices pushed inflation at the wholesale level up twice as fast as expected last month.

On the first day of the week markets, but ended with a deep cut. Nifty made a high of 6284 but closed below at 6062 after making a low of 6050 levels. Sensex which was just few hundreds below its all time high corrected and closed at 20125 levels after making a high of 20854. On Wednesday Sensex rallied almost 500 points the best in last 8 months. But corrected immediately after that. In just 2 trading sessions Sensex lost almost 560 points. On Wednesday almost everyone in the markets thought that the Sensex will make its all time high within 2-3 trading session but the dreams could not be fulfilled. Nifty closed at 6062 for the week.

In the last article also, I had mentioned that the RSI is trading in an overbought zone and the correction is insight. And here we are down from the overbought zone. Nifty below 6030 levels will continue to fall till 5930. MACD also gave sell signal as mentioned in my last article. Nifty in the weekly chart has shown signs of fatigue and indicates some more downtrend.

Last weeks call:

Short Tatasteel tgt 605. Below 625. SL 634. Made a low of 625 but did not trigger.

Buy Reliance only above 1055 tgt 1075++ made a high of 1081. tgt achieved

Sell Bhartitele below 350 tgt 333. SL 359. Made a low of 330. tgt achieved

This weeks call:

Sell Acc below 996 tgt 968 SL 1005.

Sell Ashok Leyland below 74 tgt 71-68. SL 75.70

Sell Axis bank below 1495 tgt 1450. SL 1525.

Sell Bharti Airtel Tgt 323 SL 336.

Sell Cromptom Tgt 305 SL 318.

Sell Gmr Infra tgt 52 SL 56.15

Sell Hdfc bank below 2380. SL 2400.

Buy Hdil only above 279.90.

Sell Icici bank below 1124 tgt 1100.

Sell Lic housing tgt 1347 below 1380.

Sell Pnb tgt 1269-1265.below 1298.

Markets made a new high since 1^st time since Jan 2008 crash. Nifty made a high of 6223 and Sensex 20706. Sensex was just few hundred below its all time high of 21207. Indian Markets seems to have a very rough time in the week. Markets were very volatile. Nifty in the week made a high of 6223 and low of 6067 and closed at 6105. Sensex closed at 20250.

As mentioned in my last article also that we might see some correction in coming week. (In the last week there was some indication that the markets will see some correction but markets continued to rally and closed few points below its all time highs. We might see some profits booking in the coming session) last weeks lines. After the good rally on the last day of the last week. Volumes have very well in the volumes, but still the markets corrected in the week, Nifty tanked down to make a low of 6067 and Sensex made a low of 20145.

Technically markets are in the correction mode. As mentioned in my earlier article also the markets are in the overbought zone. Nifty falls below the current levels then it will come to 6073-6035 levels. RSI is been correcting and trending downwards. MACD is given sell signals.

Last weeks call:

Buy Axisbanks close above 1582. SL of 1555. Long term tgt 1690. Could not close above 1582.

Buy Baja Auto above 1547. SL of 1535. made a high of 1615

Buy Bharat Forge close above 375. tgt of 390-395. made a high of 386.

This weeks call:

Short Tatasteel tgt 605. below 625. SL 634.

Buy Reliance only above 1055 tgt 1075++

Sell Bhartitele below 350 tgt 333. SL 359.