Sunday, December 26, 2010

Do Onions make u cry???

This is not only Onions which make my cry, but u name any commodity in the current scenario is making me cry. Vegetables, Metals, Milk products, Crude, etc etc. You name anything; you will find their price almost at their all time high.

Onions do make people cry, but the real guys are the one who produce and consume them. Farmers sell their onions to the middle men for just mere 4-5Rs in Nasik and the same is consumed by the consumers at the price of Rs.60-65. The wholesalers and the Retailers rig up the prices so much that the government finds it difficult to control the same. Few days back Indians were exporting Onions to other countries and now will be Import the same. Till now the Government had their eyes closed. The import will again cost Indian economy. I hope now there is no SCAM in this. Otherwise this would be another one to add to the never ending list of Scams. “Onion Scam”, how funny this could be. …. Now after so much pain the govt will interfere and the price will be bought down to Rs30-35, and finally the consumers have to consume at that price.

The US economy expanded at an annual rate in the third quarter. Economist projections ranged from 2.5% to 3.3%. Growing incomes, the continuation of Bush-era tax cuts and an improving labor market may encourage Americans to boost their spending, which accounts for about 70% of the world’s largest economy. US consumer spending rose for a 5th straight month in Nov and incomes rose slightly more than expected.

But on the other side the UK economy showed slow growth rate, as compared to the estimate in Q3. GDP rose 0.7% from the previous three months. The ECB will lend banks 149.5bn Euros ($196.8 bn) for three months to meet their liquidity needs over the year end period.

Japan economic growth will slow in the fiscal year from April to only half the pace of the current year due to weak exports and consumption. Data this week also showed a pick up in export growth in Nov, but that failed to temper caution about overseas demand because it was partly due to Yen’s pull back from its 15year highs.

Euro gained against the dollar and recovered from all time lows against the Swiss franc, after the announcement of China to buy Portugal’s debt worth 5b Euros. Fitch downgraded Hungary one step to BBB-. The outlook for major of the rating companies are negative, which means they are more likely to reduce the rating to junk that to raise it or keep it changed.

Global markets remained lackluster due to the year ending. Indian markets closed marginally up with a very narrow range. Weeks Turnover was at their lowest levels since 2008 levels. Nifty and Sensex gained just 1% in the week. Smallcap Index gained the most. Index closed 1.8% higher then its previous close, while Midcap Index closed marginally up. Meta Index gained the most in the sector wise performance. It grew 4%. IT index gained 1.8% and Auto Index closed higher by 1.2%.

Hero Honda after its dramatic part with the Honda group tanked in the last few weeks, but gained the most this week. The stock closed up nearly 15%. Rcom surged 10.5% on rumors that some kind of merger is possible in the company. Metal stocks like Sesagoa, Sterlite Ind & Hindalco surged higher in the range of 7-8% while Jspl was up just 4.5%. Ranbaxy, Sunpharma gained in the range of 4.5% -5.5%. On the other side DRL tanked 5.5%, Bpcl corrected 3.8%. Tata motors stocks witnessed some profit booking and corrected3%. ONGC and Sail both corrected nearly2% each.

On the midcap side Bindal Agro surged nearly 45% in a week. Bf 21%. Jubilant Food 13.5%, Pipavav 10%. Sugar stocks rallied in the last 2 trading sessions on back of resuming trading in futures in the commodity exchange. Sugar prices are once again gaining grounds and seem to getting ready for its another dream in the coming year.

Crude Oil is all set to pinch the pockets of everyone. Crude oil had topped almost $93 per barrel and is all set to touch $110.

In the last few trading session the Nifty was facing resistance at it 50DMA and its long term trendline. On Friday Nifty did try to break the same but could not succeed in the same. Sensex closed once again above 20K. Gaining nearly a percent, Sensex closed at 20073.66. To the break the head and the Shoulder pattern, Nifty need to close above the 50DMA and 6070 levels. Nifty once again took support at the 23.6% retracement levels and bounced back marginally. Macd has given some positive divergence. Nifty will find support at 5932-5890. Nifty will find resistance at 6033-6070-6090 levels.

The speculation is there that the Indian markets will witness heavy selling in the month of Jan and the start date will be 3rd Jan. Leading brokerage house have come out with report mentioning that the 03rd Jan to be the day from where the Indian equity markets will start its downward journey. Personally I would not believe this. I would rather go technically in the market and wait for the proper opportunity to grab.

Last weeks call performance.

Sell Dr Reddy below 1787 SL 1798 tgt 1776-1753. Tgt achieved. Made a low of 1616

Sell HUL price tgt 289-284. SL triggered.

Buy Icici with a SL of 1101. Made a high of 1145.

This weeks Call

Buy SBI with a SL of 2730 tgt 2792-2805.

Sell Ultratech Cement below 1040 SL 1045 tgt 1030-1018-1007.

Sell Torrent Power with SL of 270

Sell Tata motors belo 1303 SL 1307 tgt 1286- 1269

Buy Suzlon above 51 SL 49.50

Buy Sunpharma above 470 SL 467.

Buy Relcapital With SL of 641.

Buy Rcom with SL of 132.

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