==>> Nifty closed below 4250

In my last few blogs i have been constantly informing the viewers of this blog, that the Nifty is facing stiff resistance at 4450 levels and the 4250 levels is very crucial support level. Till the time Nifty crosses above 4450 NO TEJI should be done. Yes i have also mentioned in my last blog that there are some chances that the Nifty may bounce back, but it was also told that the exact trend will be noticed after todays trading seesion. 4200 seems to be a good support level.

Nifty closed at 4221 below the support level of 4250. Sensex closed at 14076. In the Nifty chart we can clearly see that Nifty took good support on the Trendline (1), in the last few days, but today opened below the trendline and plunged to make a low of 4201. Sensex made a low of 14002. The RSI is also in the downward movement. Volumes were pathetic through the week. Markets seriously lacking buyers. Inflation expeceted 12.87%+. So we may see further downside in the Banking and the Real Estate Sector.

Today Nifty closed at 4283. For most of the day both Nifty and Sensex traded in the negative zone. But in the closing session, both Nifty and Sensex closed above in the positive zone, with small gains. The candel stick pattern that is been made suggests that the movement can be on the either side, and that too very fast. Today markets played exactly the opposite game that was played yesterday. Today bulls got the control of the markets and helped Indian indices to close in the positive zone. Today candel stick pattern signifies a potential uspdei, but clarification will be done tommorrow.

==>> Rupee depreciates against Dollar

Markets opened with a positive gain. Nifty surged to make a high of 4398.8, faced resistance at 4400 levels. For most of the day bulls had the control over the mkt. Sensex remained around +200 points for most of the day, but in the closing session bears took the front seat, and took the control of the mkts. Nifty tanked to touch the negative zone, but some how managed to close above the previous close. Nifty gained around 8 points and Sensex closed above 45 pionts. Volumes have dropped down significantly. Rupee hit the low of 44 per dollar.

The candle stick pattern " Inverted hammer" that is being made on the Nifty chart suggests that there can be some more correction left in the market, but the clear trend will be known today. Downtrend is logical in this scenario as the Rupee is depreciating and the inflation is hitting 13 year high.

==>> Nifty chart 22/08/08

Nifty on the weekly basis closed at 4327.45 below the previous close of 4430.70. In the current week, Nifty made a high of 4447.4 and and a low of 4248.00. The levels were mentioned in my previous blogs. Breakout in either direction will we very fast. Watch out for the same levels. Crude prices raised to make a high of 122$, but again cooled down at 114$. Nifty on the weekly chart has taken good support at the trendline. On the daily chart Nifty closed above the 50DMA. Till the time Nifty close is not above 4440, buying should be avoided.

==>> Nifty immediate support at 4250

It was clearly mentioned that the Nifty is facing stiff resistance at 4440 levels and NO TEJI should be done till Nifty closes above the same in my blog posted on 20/08/08 "Bag full of confusion" . Yesterday Nifty plunged before making a high of 4418, till 4271.30. Nifty closed at 4283.85 below my support levels os 4290. On wednesday i have posted Nifty chart with some triggers that shows week trends. Nifty immediate support at 4250. The inflation for week ended August 9 has come in at 12.63% versus 12.44%. Another round of rate hike will be there.

==>> Crude price set to raise to 120-125 $

Techniclly speaking, Crude price chart is showing strenght at 115$, it may bounce back to 125$ per barrel.

==>> Bag full of confusion.

Marekts after leaving in the red zone for most of the trading time yesterday, bounced back in the closing session to gain some points in the positive zone. But average close of the last 1/2 hour, Sensex closed below by 101 points and Nifty closed with a loss of 25 points. Nifty closed at 4368.25 after making a low of 4316.55. As i have mentioned yesterday the Nifty has a good support at 4360 levels, the same was broken but the close was above the same. Nifty made a new low 4316.55. Yesterday there was high level of confusion. Nifty closed below the 20DMA. Nifty may come down till 4150 levels in the coming few tradign session, if the close is not above the 4440 levels. Nifty will find support at 4290 levels at 50 DMA. Nifty need to close above 4440 to reach to the level of 4625. Till the time i would advice to keep ur positions very light. NO TEJI. We might see some pull back, but will that stabalize.........

There are certian triggers marked in the chart attached which shows some weekness in the market.

==>> Markets opened weak for the week. Ruppee at 17th month low

The week opened on the weak note. Immediately after the opening session indices plunged down in the red zone. Both the indices tried to stay in the positive zone but finally closed in the negative zone. Sensex closed -79 points and Nifty at -38 points. Nifty closed below 4393. It seems that the nifty will have good support at 4390-4360 levels.

The rupee fell to its lowest in 17 months on Monday, hit by weak stock market. Rupee fell for the fifth day against the dollar. This triggered buying in IT shares, as this sector earns a substantial portion of its revenues in dollars, and hence benefits from a stronger greeenback. Global investors have started showing intrest in Indaia markets. Foreign inflows in Local markets have been low, but it is better then the redemption they are doing in the other emerging markets. India funds saw an inflow of $52 million in the last week ending Aug 13. Inflows have touched $151.5 million in the last 4 weeks. But is still far better then the Chinesse equities, that have received inflows of around $2 billion in a month.

== Nifty likely to find support at 4390.

On the week to week basis Sensex closed down by 2.92% at 14742. Nifty closed -2.18% at 4430. The sector which were badly bashed in the week was the Banking and the Reality. They were down by more then 6% as compared to the previous week.

Twice in the last week, Nifty faced resistance at 4625 levels and the 100DMA. Long unwinding was seen in the Aug Nifty future as is shed open interest with decling premiums. Writing activity started in Nifty 4600,4700 & 4800 calls, giving the indication that the markets are on the verge of forming top. However, hardly any short build ups were seen- neither in the form of put buying, nor in the form of short build up in the futures. Nifty slipped down to close below 4440 levels. Nifty will find good support at 4390 levels.

Crude fell USD 1.24 to settle at USD 113.77 a barrel on the NYMEX. Dollar gaining strenght as compared to other global currency.

==>>Nifty support at 4440

The Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (EAC) has projected a growth rate of 7.7% for 2008-2009, revised from 8.5%. EAC expects inflation to rise to 13% before it starts to taper off. Some more stocks included in the Nifty F&O kitty. Some more stocks available for ‘SATTA’. Out of the 39 scripts that are going to be included in the F&O, some of them are highly illiquid, taking the total to around 270. A group of speculators can easily control the floating in the cash segment that can lead the increase or decrease the prices in Futures. This move is going to encourage speculation. Today inflation figures will be announced today. Markets will remain volatile as the IIP Data were not that great. There was No change in the Participatory Notes.

Technical View:
As mentioned in my earlier blog also that the Nifty is stiff resistance at 4625 levels. Yesterday Nifty closed at 4529. Nifty will find good support at 4440 levels. Nifty close below 4440 for 2 days can take the Nifty to 4250.

The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex has gained 21 percent since falling to a 16-month low on July 16, as oil declined by 22 percent from its July 11 peak. India was the only market among the so-called BRIC nations of Brazil, Russia, India and China that gained in the past month as the MSCI Emerging Markets Index slumped to its lowest in almost a year. Still the leading news paper shared their view on Monday, it stated it is STILL not the right time to invest. Can any one tell me when will be the best time???? According to me if any investor with the minimum investment of a year, will definately win the race... ( my view has remained the same since nifty made a low of 3850.

==>> Industrial growth still slow.

Industrial production grew 5.4% as compared to 4.1%, but below 8.9% figure in June 2007. Manufacturing sector was the main gravitational pull, the main culprit pulling down the IIP growth. Manufacturing which accounts for two-thirds of the IIP fell down dramatically from 11.1% in June 2007 to 5.9% in June 2008. Crude prices hit $112.31/bbl. Gold crashed to Rs.11,300. Around 4-5 months back i had mentioned that the major money lender Indian banks, may also burn their hands. Leading news paper are now anticipating that the Banks will see rise in bad loans, especially in the retail segment after the latest bout of intrest rate thighteting.

Yesterday Nifty opened at 4620 made a high4649.85 to close at 4552. It is clearly seen in the chart that the Nifty is still facing good resistance at 4625.

On Friday crude prices fell down by $4. On the back of the fall in the crude prices, US market closed up around 2%+. On Monday morning all the asian markets rallied. Sensex closed above at 15503 and Nifty at 4529. IIP Data will be announced today. Market expectation are high.

Technically speaking, Nifty is trying to make a Higher top and the higher bottom formation. But it is facing stiff resistance at the 100 DMA and at 4625 levels. Few days back also it was mentioned about the same, and the Nifty dipped from 4615 levels to 4464. Nifty will find good support at 4440.

==>> Inflation at 13 year high

Inflation crossed the 12% mark in the week ended July 26. In the previous week it was at 11.98% and a week before that it was at 11.89%. Inflation is a 13 year high as compared to 4.7% in the corresponding period a year ago. Crude gained strenght on the back of fire in the crude pipeline in Turkey. Gold continued its down ward journey for the fourth straight session. FII's offloaded equities worth Rs.223 crores. Gold has dropped Rs. 1620 from its all time high.

Yesterday also Indian brousers gained in the early session, but in the end all the gains were lost. Sensex closed about +30 points and Nifty gained around 3 points. Nifty made a high of 4580, to close at 4520 in the end.

==>> Nifty Brekout.....

Yesterday Nifty crossed the resistance trend line and closed above the 4500 mark. Nifty will face resistance at 4540 level. The close above the same will take the nifty to 4625 level. Sensex closed above at 14961. Sensex close above 15130 will take it to the level of 15345.

Few Days i have mentioned that the Nifty will bounce back from 4000 levels, from there onwards there has been no stopage. I have also mentioned that, it is the right time for the investment and the traders should look out for trading in Banking and Real Estate sector. Crude price is at $118 per barrel.

Markets remained volatile through the day. Markets after opening in the -ve zone, rallied to make a high of 4436. Nifty faced resistance at 4440 as seen in the past also. Markets after the mid session tanked down in the-ve zone. After making a low of 4362, Nifty closed at 4395.

As mentioned earlier taht the Nifty will face resistance at the terndline. It is trying to close above the same. Few stocks were recommended yesterday. RPL after opening made a high of 175 and closed above at 174.30.

==>> Nifty breakout above the trendline

The northward journey of the bourses continue for thte 2nd consecutive week. Sensex rallied 382 points and Nifty rallied 102 points higher then the previous week. The fall in the global crude prices trigerred gains during the last week. Crude prices fell from the a peak of 147.27 to close at 12.1 a barrel on friday. Oil prices may rise. In case it raises it will bad for the Indian markets, especially when the inflation is close to 12%.

Does that mean the party is over on the brouses? The answer is no. The reason is that there is no negative trigger to drive down the Indian markets and during the last week, foreign funds remained net buyers in the cash market, which is a bigh plus sign. Indo-US Nuclear deal will also prove to be good for the markets.

Technically speaking, after making a bottom at the 50% retracement level from the low of 3790 and high of 4539, retracement at 4160. Nifty has bounced back. It is facing some resistance at the trendline at 4425 levels. But a decisive breakout above the trend line will take Nifty to 4540 levels. Break above 4539, the Nifty will be in the new pattern formation of higher top and higher bottom formation. At the downside good support at 4190.

Buy Rpl above 170 tgt 174. above the same will take it to 182 levels. PUNJLYOD, RPL, SUZLON LOOKS GOOD, break out pattern.

==>> Inflation at 11.98%

Inflation have almost reached 12%. Inflation for the week was 11.98% as compared to 11.89% in the previous week. Many traders choosed to trade cautiously ahead of the release ok key inflation and the second quarter US Economy numbers. ICICI and HDFC Bank announced a hike in their prime lending rates, which wille be effective from friday. The US economy grew at 1.9% in the second quarter.

Our markets traded in the negative zone for most of the day on Thrusday. Nifty closed at 4332.95 after making a low of 4285.55 and Sensex at 14355.75. Nifty will face resistance at 4375 levels. Fresh short Built have been seen in many Banking stocks, Cement Sector.