Coal Coal Coal.. its everywhere.

Coal India is on its way to make debut on the Indian markets. On the listing day the market cap of the script will be nearly about Rs1.50L Cr, ahead of the Diwali Festive season which is due in the next week. Sebi has also increased the IPO limit for the retail investors to Rs.2L up from Rs.1Lac. This will trigger more inflows in the Equity market.

FII for the first time turned out to be sellers in last 1-1.5 month. Profits booking were seen in the Indian markets. Sensex breached the 20000 levels and Nifty 6000 levels. But closed marginally higher above the said levels.

If we look at the chart the Nifty is still showing weakness and on Thursday Nifty closed below its Head and Shoulder pattern and slipped below the 6000 levels. But the said support level of 5980-5930 levels seems to be very strong and the nifty on Friday bounced back from the said levels. Sensex made a low of 19768 and closed at 20032 up by 91 points on the last day of the week.

According to the Fibonacci Theory, if we take the low of nifty from 4786 that was made in the month of May after a long sideway movement and the High of 6284 levels. 6284 was the levels; I had recommended that the Indian markets will surely see some correction. The 23.60% retracement levels come nearly 5930 levels. And today Nifty had made a low of 5937. On Thursday Nifty breakdown its Head and Shoulder pattern and closed below at 5987 after making a low of 5968. Nifty if closes below the 23.60% retracement levels then we might see some more correction coming on the way.

In the weekly chart Nifty is still trading in its overbought zone, but in the daily charts Nifty is well near the comfort zone. But still it’s in the bear trap. And the revival is still not in sight. Nifty will resistance at 6037-6057 levels. Close above 6057 will take the nifty to 6150 levels, but that still seems to be out of reach as of now.

This weeks Call:

Buy Adani Ent above 712 SL 704.

Sell Biocon below 405 tgt 391-386 SL 411.

Sell Cromptom below 317 tgt 305 SL 325.

Sell Hdil below 244 tgt 236-232.

Buy Icici bank above 1169 SL 1163.

Sell Rilinfra below 1032 SL 1047 tgt 1007.

The markets staged a recovery in the last hour of trade, led by buying in oil & gas, capital goods, power, select technology and financial companies’ shares. At the end of the trading session, both the Sensex and Nifty, managed to close above their psychologically important levels - 20,000 and 6,000, respectively.
However, selling continued for stocks of cement and FMCG companies along with Bharti Airtel, Wipro, Tata Power, ICICI Bank, Maruti, Sterlite, M&M, Cipla, Sesa Goa, Hindalco and HDFC. Sensex closed at 20,168, up 44 points and the Nifty at 6,076, up 13 points. Coal India IPO opened for subscription today for retail and institutional clients. The company has set a reasonably cheap price band of Rs 225-245. The government intends to raise as much as USD 3.5 billion from the IPO.
Asian shares – Asian markets were mixed on Monday following subdued trading session in Wall Street on Friday. Additionally, the ending of the proposed USD 116 billion iron ore deal between Australian mining giants BHP Billiton & Rio Tinto dragged down resources plays. The deal was rejected by anti-trust regulators in Europe and Asia. Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock average fell 0.02% to 9,498.50. Broader Topix gained marginally, 0.50% to 830.52, and Australia’s S&P/ASX lost 37 points or 0.80% to end the session at 4,651.90.
European shares – Taking a cue from Asian markets and strengthening USD, Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures lost 0.8% in the morning trade. All major European indices saw a marginal change from Friday’s close.
USD bounced from a 10-month low against a basket of currencies on Monday, as investors trimmed bearish bets against the greenback on some uncertainty about how the Federal Reserve will react. This in turn halted rally in precious metals and further extended downfall in oil.
Nifty in the intraday made a low of 5985 and closed above the 6000 mark at 6075.95. Nifty took good support at 20DMA and bounced back. As per the Japanesse candlestick pattern "Bullish Hammer pattern" have been created, but the conformation will be only after tommorrows trading session. nifty will face resistance at 6145 levels.

ALL THAT GLITTER IS NOT GOLD

ALL THAT GLITTER IS NOT GOLD

As everyone knows that “All that Glitter is not gold”. Indian markets were near their all time. FII’s flows were very positive since the last month. Markets continued its northward journey. Gaining nearly 500 points in a single day, everyone thought that the markets will definitely make a new high in the current week. But this did not happen. Rally seems to be halted for a while.

As per the Wave theory the rally which started from 5100 levels continued to make a high of 6284.10. (See the Chart attached with). In the fifth wave Nifty rally should have been over at 6296.80 levels and Nifty in the week made a high of 6284.10 and then corrected. If this is true, then the downward journey should first have a target of 5601 levels. But that will entirely depend on the flows in India. Retail customers have been booking profits on back of the coming Coal India IPO, so as the big institutions too. Rally will more depend on the coming results season too. As mentioned in my earlier also that the Nifty if corrects will directly halt at 6073-6035 levels. And so here we are. Nifty closed at 6602 down 115 points on the last day of the trading session for the week. Sensex lost nearly 375 points, but some how managed to close above 20000 mark.

Government will do the good to keep the markets moving upwards as they do not want the India’s mega IPO to get a lackluster response. Coal India is offering nearly 66.33Crs shares at a price band of Rs.225-245 a share to raise Rs.15K Cr.

Indian markets witnessed slight correction. Major Indices corrected nearly 0.8% in a week. Midcap & Junior Index too corrected 0.50% & 1.80%, while Small cap index also only the Index which managed to close above almost 1.2%. Heavyweights corrected in the week. SBI after its rally in the last few weeks corrected nearly 2.8%, Axis bank closed down by 4.5%. Lnt, Dlf, Rcom corrected in the range of 2-3%. Hero Honda by 3.4%, Ntpc by 4.7%, Bpcl by 6.8%. Fertilizers stocks seems to have their best trading days after a very long time. Chambal fertilizer rallied 25%, Rcf 27%, Nagarjuna Fertliser

14%.

Dark clouds are still not out of the American people. Jobless claims continued to rise. At the same time, record high imports form China helped pushed the US trade deficit wider in Aug, while rising food and energy prices pushed inflation at the wholesale level up twice as fast as expected last month.

On the first day of the week markets, but ended with a deep cut. Nifty made a high of 6284 but closed below at 6062 after making a low of 6050 levels. Sensex which was just few hundreds below its all time high corrected and closed at 20125 levels after making a high of 20854. On Wednesday Sensex rallied almost 500 points the best in last 8 months. But corrected immediately after that. In just 2 trading sessions Sensex lost almost 560 points. On Wednesday almost everyone in the markets thought that the Sensex will make its all time high within 2-3 trading session but the dreams could not be fulfilled. Nifty closed at 6062 for the week.

In the last article also, I had mentioned that the RSI is trading in an overbought zone and the correction is insight. And here we are down from the overbought zone. Nifty below 6030 levels will continue to fall till 5930. MACD also gave sell signal as mentioned in my last article. Nifty in the weekly chart has shown signs of fatigue and indicates some more downtrend.

Last weeks call:

Short Tatasteel tgt 605. Below 625. SL 634. Made a low of 625 but did not trigger.

Buy Reliance only above 1055 tgt 1075++ made a high of 1081. tgt achieved

Sell Bhartitele below 350 tgt 333. SL 359. Made a low of 330. tgt achieved

This weeks call:

Sell Acc below 996 tgt 968 SL 1005.

Sell Ashok Leyland below 74 tgt 71-68. SL 75.70

Sell Axis bank below 1495 tgt 1450. SL 1525.

Sell Bharti Airtel Tgt 323 SL 336.

Sell Cromptom Tgt 305 SL 318.

Sell Gmr Infra tgt 52 SL 56.15

Sell Hdfc bank below 2380. SL 2400.

Buy Hdil only above 279.90.

Sell Icici bank below 1124 tgt 1100.

Sell Lic housing tgt 1347 below 1380.

Sell Pnb tgt 1269-1265.below 1298.

Markets made a new high since 1^st time since Jan 2008 crash. Nifty made a high of 6223 and Sensex 20706. Sensex was just few hundred below its all time high of 21207. Indian Markets seems to have a very rough time in the week. Markets were very volatile. Nifty in the week made a high of 6223 and low of 6067 and closed at 6105. Sensex closed at 20250.

As mentioned in my last article also that we might see some correction in coming week. (In the last week there was some indication that the markets will see some correction but markets continued to rally and closed few points below its all time highs. We might see some profits booking in the coming session) last weeks lines. After the good rally on the last day of the last week. Volumes have very well in the volumes, but still the markets corrected in the week, Nifty tanked down to make a low of 6067 and Sensex made a low of 20145.

Technically markets are in the correction mode. As mentioned in my earlier article also the markets are in the overbought zone. Nifty falls below the current levels then it will come to 6073-6035 levels. RSI is been correcting and trending downwards. MACD is given sell signals.

Last weeks call:

Buy Axisbanks close above 1582. SL of 1555. Long term tgt 1690. Could not close above 1582.

Buy Baja Auto above 1547. SL of 1535. made a high of 1615

Buy Bharat Forge close above 375. tgt of 390-395. made a high of 386.

This weeks call:

Short Tatasteel tgt 605. below 625. SL 634.

Buy Reliance only above 1055 tgt 1075++

Sell Bhartitele below 350 tgt 333. SL 359.

Yes!! Yes!! We are almost there tgt---->>> ALL TIME HIGH

Nifty once again crossed one more milestone and now this close above the 6100 mark. Nifty for the 1^st time since Jan 2008 crash crossed over 6100 and closed at 6143 up 113 points on the last day of week. Sensex closed at 20445 up 375 points.

Major Indices in the Indian markets gained more than 2% in the week. Frontline stock seems to have their one of the best time since the major crash in 2008. Midcap Index closed up 1.5% and Smallcap & junior Index closed 1.3% higher.

Metal, Real estate and the banking stocks were in full charm. Metal Index surged the most in the week, which closed 5.2% higher. Stocks such as like Sail, Hindalco and Tata Steel which were up 8.2%, 7% & 5.8% respectively, helped the Metal Index surge. In Reality space Unitech and DLF gained the most. Reality Index surged 5%. Bhel had one of its best times on the brousers which gained almost 5.6%. Siemens closed up almost 6% and Lnt up 4%. Cap Goods Index closed higher by 3.7%. Auto stocks performed pretty well on the last day of the trading session for the week. Auto Index surged almost 2.5%. 5% rise in the SBI stock price helped Banking Index gain nearly 2.5%. Healthcare Index also had some run up in the week which gained 2.3%.

Bajaj Auto closed higher by 6.8%, Dlf 6.2%, Sbi 5%. In the midcap stocks Sujana towers gained the most. It closed at 102.45 up almost 46% in a week. Another stock Pnb Gilts gained nearly 30%. After the major success of “Dabaang”, Shree Ashtavinayak stocks seen another round up rally and closed higher by 15%. After the news of the restructuring of its loan book, Kingfisher airlines Ltd rallied 7.8%. Edelweiss was up 8.7%. Satyam lost almost 9% after the announcement of its 2yrs results. Pipavav Shipyard lost 15%. Jupiter Bio lost 12% in this rally.

In my article I mentioned that we might see correction for another round of rally but there seems to be no stoppage for the Indian markets. There had been considerable increase in the FII investment in the Indian stocks. In the last 3 months Fii have pumped nearly Rs.39K cr in the Indian markets. Out of that Rs.24K Cr came in the Sep alone, which helped the Indian markets surged to almost at their all time high. On the other hand Domestic Institutions are net sellers to the tune of Rs.10K Cr.

Nifty for the 1^st time closed above the 6100 mark, since the beginning of the 2008 Crash. Sensex closed at 20445. I had predicted the 6000 levels till the end of the 2010, which had been mentioned in the conference, but it has already crossed over the level.

In the weekly chart Nifty had once again given a breakout before 3 days. In my last article I had mentioned that in the daily chart RSI is trading at very high levels but in the weekly chart there is still no sign of selling trigger. But in daily chart it has been trading there since quite a long time. We did see some profit booking at these levels. Volumes have been great in the markets. F&O turnover crossed Rs.2L Cr on the expiry day. Markets men tried to called off the rally but some plan got disturbed by some sudden pull in the expiry day. Sensex which was almost down around 120 points saw a great pull back in the last hour and gained to close marginally below. On the next day i.e Friday markets opened with a wide gap in the green and continued its rally and closed higher by 320 points in Sensex and almost 100 points in Nifty.

Rsi trading in the overbought zone suggests that the markets will see some correction. Nifty will face resistance at 6175-6185 levels. Close above that will take the Nifty to 6244. Nifty will find support at 6078-6011 levels. Sensex will face resistance at 20875. Close above will take the Sensex above its all time high. Above that, it will open up for my next target of Sensex 25000 (which was mentioned in the conference) within 6-8 months.

In the last week there was some indication that the markets will see some correction but markets continued to rally and closed few points below its all time highs. We might see some profits booking in the coming session. Now the lot more will depend on the Quarterly numbers which will be announced.

Last aricles call:

Buy Rcom above 170 SL. 161. made a high of 176 but Sl still not triggered.

Sell Bajaj Auto below 1440. SL triggered.

Buy Bpcl above 770. SL 765. made a high of 818.

Buy Bharti Airtel above 361. made a high of 376.

This weeks call:

Buy Axisbanks close above 1582. SL of 1555. Long term tgt 1690.

Buy Baja Auto above 1547. Sl of 1535.

Buy Bharat Forge close above 375. Sl of 390-395