Being the last day of the trading session of the Financial year 2009-2010, markets corrected and closed in red.

But the year had given fabulous returns. Major Indices almost Doubled up in the current year. Sensex and Nifty nearly gave returns of 80%. Midcap and the Smallcap index gave more than 100% returns in a year. Midcap & Smallcap index surged 128% and 168% respectively. Oil Index gained 45% while FMCG Index surged 41% only. Commodities Index was 21%, but the Dollar Index was down 5%. Rupee in comparision of Dollar had seen a low of almost 49 per dollar and now its trading at a 45. Gold too had made its all time high in the 09-10. Commodities prices surged heavily. Scarcity of rain was the major culprit in the rise in the commodity prices. Sugar had also made its all time high.

Being the best performing markets in the world. FII inflow too topped at $22bn.

Listed below are the best performing A & B group stocks in a year.
Icici Bank (187%), Axisbank (190%), PNB (144%), Yes Bank (416%), IDFC (200%)

Tata steel (212%), Sail (150%), Jindal Saw (510%), JSPL (256%), Hindalco (254%)

Tata motor (310%), M&M (190%), Hero Honda & Maruti (85%)

RIL (44%), Ongc & Bpcl (40%)

Hcl Tech (263%), TCS (200%)

Greaves Cotton (410%), Guj Nre (355%), Fame (740%), Unity (675%), Supreme Ind (645%), Zydus (555%)

Idea (34%) but Bharti underperformed by decline 1% and Rcom by 4%.

From tomorrow onward any shares bought in B gr will fall in new settlement for which fresh funding is available and hence we can see lot of fresh buying in B gr shares.
Next 2 days still looks extremely positive for Nifty 50 and Sensex 30 stocks due to NAV. So keep your fingers crossed.

The March F&O series saw the bulls take control right from the first day. After that there was no looking back. Be it the spiraling inflation, RBI’s surprising rate hike or the European debt troubles nothing seemed to perturb the bulls. Persistent inflows from the FIIs certainly helped, as did the better than anticipated Union Budget. FIIs turned out being buyers to the tune of ~Rs165.12bn during the month of March.

The BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty rallied by around 8% each during the March series. The strong upswing was led by blue chips like Reliance Industries and Bharti Airtel which added up 14% each. Frontline banking stock, HDFC Bank surged 13% while, Hero Honda accelerated 17% during the March series.

Rate hike is not that great issue for me as it was to happen some time. The fact that RBI had to act fast which means the liquidity is still higher and inflation is rising and Indian Economy requires breaks for that matter. This is good for market as it indicate higher growth and hence higher earnings.

Market is not reacting to rate hike though there was knee jerk reaction. It is all about the position rollover and NAV as on the last day of the settlement because these will prop up the valuation of M F and FII going forward.

As mentioned in my earlier post that the Nifty will face resistance at 5250 levels. But the downside is nearly capped near 5150 levels.

==>> We are heading towards 5300 or 4800??

Markets are once again near to the recent high. As it approaches near the 5300 levels, Will the Nifty again see another round of sell off??? Will the markets continue to rally after nearly 2 months of consolidation??? Will the FII’s continue to be in buying mode.???

Nifty finally closes above 5250 levels but will face stiff resistance at the 5300 levels. In the past also it has been seen that the traders book profits at the 5300 levels in Nifty. This time it seems that the Nifty after consolidating for most the weeks in Feb & March will surely try to cross the 5300 levels. FII’s seems to be in the buying mode since the Budget announcement in the late Feb month. Since the Budget Markets were into the consolidation mode, but since the start of this week markets have continued its rally.

Major Indices (Sensex & Nifty) surged more than 2% each. Nifty rallied to 17 points on the last date of the week to close above the major resistance level of 5250 levels. Sensex closed higher by 17578 up by 60 points on the last day of the week. Sensex surged 2.4% in week. Midcap stocks were seen on the buying speer. Index rallied nearly 1.3%. Rally was mainly due to buying in the Power, Telecom, Metals, & Oil & Gas companies. Metal Index surged 3.5% which was mainly due to Tata Steel which closed up by 5.7% on week on week basis. Hindalco by 5.7%. Infosys surged nearly 4% in a week which helped IT index close 3% up. OIL and Gas Index closed 3.4% higher. Healthcare Index was up 2.7%. The only Index slipped in the red was the Reality Index which sinked almost 1.7%. The recent Real Estate has also not performed well as compared the other IPO’s. Real Estate firms are finding it really hard to raise money from the markets.

Since the start of the week, the only counter which was on everyone’s radar was RIL Ind which shot up 6.7% Bharti closed up nearly 4% after been badly hit in the last few weeks. Rcom & Cipla surged nearly 6%. In the ongoing battle between the ITC & HUL, HUL bounced back in the current week by 4%. M&M tanked 5.1% in the current week. Other Mid cap and the Small Cap stocks which saw a huge rally in the week were Usha martin, Skumar, Jayswal Neco, Insecticide which rallied in the range of 35-30%. MSK project was locked in the upper circuit after the buy of majority shares by WelspunGuj. Prism cement, IBreal 8% & Moser Baer 5%.

Nifty closed above one of its major resistance levels of 5250 levels. But the Nifty will continue to face stiff resistance level of 5300 levels also. In the past also we have seen traders booking profits at these levels. Before the Budget also the Nifty tanked from these levels. In the month of Jan 2010 also we have seen that Nifty made a high above 5300 and tanked nearly 600 points to make a low of around 4700. In the year 2008 also we had seen some kind of similar correction.

FII have been in the mode since the end of the Budget. They bought nearly Rs 10K Cr since. In the current week also they remained net buyers to the tune of Rs 2.5K Cr. DII’s on the other side have been net sellers to the tune of nearly Rs.4.5K Cr since the Budget.

If the buying in the markets continues then we can surely be able to cross the 5300 mark. But the volumes in the markets volumes are still the matter of concern. Nifty chart is showing positive patterns. Nifty will have good support at 5185 levels.

BUY Relinfra above 1050

BUY Infinite Infra with the SL of 204

BUY Ril Ind above 1120

BUY Maytas Infra Del. Cmp 186

Markets closed flat, after seeing consolidation for most of the day. Volumes in the markets were lower than yesterday. United Bank got listed with a premium of 10% on both Bse & Nse.

Nifty finally broke its resistance level of 5185 and closed at 5198. Nifty closed marginally below the 5200 levels. The rally was lead majorly by RIL ind which rallied nearly 4% up. RIL ind closed above its 200 DMA after a very long time. RIL ind will continue its rally. Volumes in the markets were pretty low for most of the day. Volumes in the markets picked in the late hours, when the markets saw a surprise rise in the market. Sensex closed by more the 1.50% at 17383 while Nifty closed at 5198 up by almost 70 points. Nifty will face small resistance at 5250. but 5300 levels will surely prove to be major resistance levels...

==>> Gold, Sugar & IIP

Sugar: There has been higher than production in the current year. The International prices have also dropped down sharply. Indian sugar production is estimated at16.8mn ton, which was earlier estimated at 15mn tons. Production more than estimated & continuous price decline in the International markets will surely trigger panic selling in the Indian market. Brazilian Sugar production is higher than expected. Sugar Imports are high in India. According to me Govt should continue to import sugar to curb the unnecessary price hike which was done by the middle men which starting stocking the sugar. Sugar stocks have underperformed the markets by over 20% over the past 2-3 months. I see further down side in the stocks. In the spot market Sugar price should come down to 25-28 levels.

IIP: Last time also indicated correctly, about the rate hike. This time also it seems so that the markets are discounting the increase of rate hike. According to me the rate hike will be there very soon. IIP numbers getting to track. Inflation is getting out of control on back of high oil & food prices. Very soon the hike in the rate of Interest will be there.

China: Markets men talking about the China banks getting in control. According to them there should be cap on the lending in China. Inflation in China is also at its 16mth high. China GDP grew at 10.7% last qtr. Banks extended 700bn yuan (103bn) of new loans in Feb, according to Central Bank Data. According to me the Chinese Govt are doing the right things to support the growth by higher loans in 2009 than in 2009. I know the banks are lending too much but they country can handle even more than this. China’s banks on average hold nearly 16% of their capital in reserves as compared to 10% in US. Bad loans in China are very less as compared to US. Savings in China is almost 35%of the country’s income. Chinese govt are focusing more on constructing infrastructure that generates more income in the hands of the rural people. That again leads to savings. On back of Chinese stimulus package, manufacturing sector is also growing at a very high speed. China is now ranked 1^st for the Automobile hub. China’s foreign exchange reserves surged to nearly $2.5 trillion. China’s exports have been on the upward move. China GDP grew by almost 9% in 2009. According to me the Chinese govt will continue to boom.

Gold & Silver: Gold had been proved to be the best investment. The demand for the gold have just exploded. Central banks, private investors have lined up just to buy gold. Exploration cost of the gold have sky rocketed in the years. Gold production in the last 10 years has drastically dropped down. But the Demand for the same have been on the upward move in the last 10 years with the price increase and this will continue to happen in the near future also…..
China is the main holder of Gold today. In the past it was illegal for the Chinese people to own gold, just like it was illegal for the Americans between 1933 and 1974. But after that was made legal, the gold prices surged near 733% in just 4 yrs. Just Imagine the price after 4 years where the Chinese govt are running commercials on television urging them to buy more of gold…. During the 1970s to 80s the gold soared nearly 2300%. But the run we have seen in the last 2 years is just 300% so far. We are still far from the top as compared to the last rally. The drop in the dollar is balanced by gold going up by certain %.

Silver will too see a sharp rise in the price because of its multiple usage. It is almost used in everything from cell phones to Ipod to solar panels, telescopes even I mirrors. It is used it to seed clouds and make it rain. Silver demand is very high. Supply of the silver will too shrink in the near future, only then we will the prices sky rocketing.

Oil prices have been soared quite well in the past few weeks. Unemployment numbers in the US still continue to grow.

FII have been buyers for the last 4 days. They are net buyers to the tune of Rs.4000cr. DII’s remained sellers for nearly Rs.1300Cr.

Indian markets since the last week has seen a lackluster trading sessions. Nifty for the week closed with marginal gains. Since the budget FII have almost pumped Rs11Kcr but still the markets are witnessing a headless movement. For the 7^th consecutive trading session was Indices closing on the flattish note. Even after the good IIP data for the month of Jan 2010, could not pull the markets up. Nifty is facing stiff resistance at 5150-5185 levels, but finding good support at 5050 levels. Breakout either side will see sharp movement. People are waiting over the sidelines for the markets to breakout.

Buy Infinite computers with SL of 212.

Actually there is not to be written for the markets today. Since the last week we have been seen a very lackluster movement in the Indian markets. Volumes are low. Only stock specific movement happening. New listing steels the charm. Today Man infra got listed on and closed with a premium of almost 45%. Nifty finding support at 5090 and facing resistance at 5150 levels. Breakout otherside will only decide the trend of the market.

Once again Nifty slipped below 5100 levels on lack of buying. Profit booking was seen through the counter. Only IT stocks outperformed the markets. Metals, Oil & Gas, realty, Auto faced the heat. Sensex closed down by 50 points at 17054. Nifty closed down 0.44% at 5101. Volumes in the markets have dried up. Tata Motor's block deal in BSE was the major contributor in the volumes.

Nifty will continue to face resistance at 5150 levels. People are still not confortable with the market.

==>>5100 in Nifty and 17000 in Sensex just a kiss away

Are the Indian Equity Markets again in the Bull Run???

Budget which was presented in the last month gave some trigger to the Bulls. The markets once again saw some positive momentum after almost a month of lackluster trading session. We could see some short covering in the F&O stocks. Frontline stocks in the start of the week saw some real buying mode. Punters continued to press the buy buttons on some select stocks. Global cues were also positive. Despite the on going pressure on the Euro Zone, Indian markets continued to rally. Sensex zoomed to kiss 17000 mark in the week. Sensex rallied almost 700 points since the Budget day. Nifty too traded above 5100 levels but failed to closed above the same.

All the Indices closed in green. Sensex and Nifty closed nearly 3.5% higher. While other Indices closed nearly 5% higher. Tata Motors gained nearly12% in a week and M&M was up almost 7%. RIL after the fallout of the Llyondel Buyout gained nearly3 %. Bharti Tele was up 7%. Rcom 5%. Jet Airways gained nearly 23% on signs of recovery in the aviation sector. Increase in the prices of cooking coal added fire to the Gujnre coke which surged nearly 20% in a week. Steel Stocks surged in the week. JSPL was up 10% while Tata Steel & Sail was up 7.5%. Increase in the Cigarette prices of ITC will be passed on the client. ITC was up almost 5%. Puravankara Projects shot up 11.95%, after company infomed the 50:50 JV with Mexico-based Homex. In the smallcap space, Sulzer India was locked at 20% upper circuit, as it approved delisting price of Rs 870/share. Zicom Security sold electronic security system business for Rs 225 crore to Schneider. Zicom's current market cap stood at Rs 155 crore.

In the week, FII’s remained buyers to the tune of Rs 3,200 Cr, while DII’s remained sellers for Rs450Cr. Is this the beginning of another BULL RUN?

Last year after the Congress broke out in the election, which was the first step towards the bounce back from the lows. The Bull Run was haulted in the start of the year 2010. Markets men were waiting on the sideline to press their buy buttons. Everyone was waiting for the big day- BUDGET DAY. Budget presented by Pranab da was not so good and not so bad. Altogether the Budget for the year 2010 was OK. Post budget Markets rallied almost 4% till now.

According to me Nifty has bottomed at 4800 levels. Nifty took good support at the 4600 levels i.e. 200DMA. In the week Nifty crossed over the 50 DMA & 100 DMA. RSI have also turned positive. Markets will continue to rally for sometime. Nifty will find good support at the 5000 levels. Nifty on the higher side will face resistance at 5115-5185 levels. Volumes still remain concern in the market. Once the volumes starts picking up in the market, It seems that the nifty will surely cross over the high which was made in the recent past i.e.5300 levels.

Buy Infinite comp with SL of 195 tgt 240++

Buy Reliance near 960-980 levels. Tgt 1400++

Buy Bharti Airtel with tgt of 340++

Call on Zicom was given for 2009 Diwali Mahurat trading at 100.

==>> Back to 17000 mark.......

Its been a long wait for the 17000 mark. Positive Union Budget and Rail Budget, triggered some short covering in the market. Which helped markets recover some points. Nifty closed for the 2 nd day above the 5000 levels and Sensex closed at 17000 mark up 71 & 227 points respectively. Yesterdays pull back rally has triggered the major resistance levels in the chart but the volumes in the markets were pretty low. That proves that the markets men are still not very comfartable with the rally. There is still some worry left in the markets.
Midcap and Small Cap stocks did not perform in the markets. Reliance was up nearly 3.5%. Markets rallied mostly due to some buying interest in the Frontline stocks. Reliance in the short period wil surely touch Rs.1400/-.