==>> Nifty closed below the long term trendline

On 29th May Nifty closed well above the Long term trendline after finding good support at the same level. But as mentioned that the exact pattern will be clear within 1-2 days. Yesterday Nifty closed below the long term trenline. Nifty for sometime found good support at 4900 levels, but finally lost control and was dragged down till 4801 and closed at 4835.30. There was good volumes in the Nifty 4900 puts. That means good short built up seen in Nifty futures with great volumes.

As mentioned that the Nifty close below the long term could be a cautious sign. Yesterday Nifty chart showed an bearish Engulfing pattern. Nifty has a good suppot at 4800 levels, but that can also be broken. We might see good opening on the back of global markets, but the question is , WILL THAT SUSTAIN?? The pattern to be broken in the Nifty chart, the close should be above 4900. Till that time "NO TEJI". Weekend inflation data will also be announced. Nothing great has been done to control inflation, so i dont think that we will lower inflation rate.

I am proud to say that the Viewers of this blog were well informed about fall in the market, before the mayhem occured. Yesterday we saw Nifty plunging down till 4800 levels within minutes as soon as it broke the long term trendline. Yesterday in the opening session i have clear mentioned that Keep ur positions light and book profits as and when needed.

==>> Support at 4866.Bank & cement will be in lime light

Nifty opened flat, but within, it was seen trading in the red zone. But in the closing session, closed in the positive zone. Sensex closed 250 points up. We did see some great roller-coster ride today. But as mentioned in the morning that we will see bounce back today. This indicator could be seen in the price pattern that was made yesterday. But still the dark clouds are still there, and it can once again prove fatal.

Is this the end of the recent correction or just a beginning of the second round of correction??? This is the only question in every one’s mind. On Friday 23rd, it was mentioned that the Nifty will come down till 4900 levels and after that 4800. Today Nifty made a new low of 4835. In the last 3 days Nifty is making new lows, but the close is above the long term trend line ( Red line ). In the last 3 days the Nifty is taking good support at the same. The close above 4960 will only break the present trend. 4865 is the long term trendline support. Nifty has a small resistance at 4910 levels.

At last we saw some rally in the Banking stocks. In the last few days we have seen the huge short built up in the Banking stocks. In my last month’s blog, I have clearly mentioned that the Investors should stay away from the Banking and the Real estate stocks. Viewers can themselves see that harsh behavior with these sectors. Today we saw some bounce back due to short covering.

Crude prices are cooling a bit. Banks stocks will bounce back a bit.

ICICI bank has a very good suppor at 801 levels. Buy with the same SL. SBI is in the over sold postion. Buy with todays low as SL. Bank Nifty has a good suppor of 6545. HDFC Bank looks good with the Closing SL of 1349. Buy IDBI with the SL of 84. Ambuja cement chart is looking intresting, buy with the sl of 96. BUY ACC if it trades above 670 for sometime. India cement buy above 166. CONSIDE THESE STOCKS AS A GOOD BUY WHEN THE MARKETS ARE IN THE POSITIVE ZONE. IF THE MARKETS OPEN GAP DOWN IN THE NEGATIVE ZONE, THEN PLEASE AVOID BUYING ANY. SL SHOULD BE MENTAINED.

==>> Some pull back expected.

Expect some bounce back today, as the chart suggests (circled in the previous chart) and global indices are also showing some pull back.

==>> Nifty closes above the Long term Trednline

Nifty opening was in the positive zone. Trader positively in the green for the rest of the day, but in the late hours bears were back in action and the markets closed in the negative zone. Nifty did take a good support at 4857 levels and the close was above the same at 4859.9. As I have mentioned that the Nifty long term trendline support is at 4857 and the close below would be considered bad. And the slide will continue till 4800-4750, at least. But the candlestick pattern which is made today suggests that some pull back can be seen. As the bulls were more active through the day but lost control over the market in the last few hours. The pattern confirmation will be done after the candle stick pattern which will be made tomorrow. Most probably the reversal can be seen tomorrow itself, but if the Nifty starts trading below the mentioned levels then it could be considered as a caution sign.

Crude prices are still a concern. Petrol hike of Rs.10-16 and Diesel price hike of Rs.5 is possible. Price hike would definitely give some breather to the Oil Co.s in India. PSTL looks good for mid to long term. Full year results are very good. Expected to post better results then the current year.

==>> NIfty next major support at 4857

Nifty closed below 4900 at 4885. Nifty opened in the -ve zone and stayed there for the rest of the day. Nifty closed below the major support level of 4900. As mentioned that the Nifty is closed below the trenline and 4900 is a good support, but the close below the same will take the Nifty down till 4750 as per the pattern. But Nifty still have one support the long term terdline. This long term trendline was earlier discussed in the month of March, when the close was below the same for the first time in last 2 years. Nifty major trendline support is at 4857.

We had discussed about the IT sector, that was looking good.

==>> Long built up seen

Few counters that have seen Long built up is Nicholas Piramal, Tulip IT, LMW. Keep eye on the volumes and the price movement. Nifty and the banking stocks have seen good short position. Specially ICICI Bank, SBI, Axis bank, PNB.

==>> Slide show continues

Last few days I have been constantly updating the viewers about the, Nifty major resistance at the trendline. Yesterday’s close of Nifty was below the trendline (circled in the chart ). In the last few days the Nifty have been testing both the trendline (up & down). Finally at the end of the triangle pattern of the convergence of both the trendlines, yesterday Nifty closed below and today also the downward slide continued. Major depreciation in the value of the rupee to dollar and sky rocketing crude prices lead the carnage in the Indian markets.

In the last 3 days banking stocks have been shuttered badly. In my blog that was posted on 20th May it was mentioned that the close below 5030 will take the Nifty to 4900 atleast. It was also mentioned that the Nifty can touch 5400 levels but the support was also clearly mentioned. Today major support of 5010 was broken. If the Nifty makes a new low below 4900 and closes below that then the lower top and the lower bottom pattern will be formed that can again take the Nifty at least till 4750. According to the fibonacci theory 4900 seems to be a very good support. There is a temporary hault upside. See the chart for clear picture. In the morning also it was mentioned that the if Nifty trades below 5030 then book all profits…..

Inflation was flat at 7.82%.

==>> Inflation is a concern

It's Friday again... Inflation Numbers to be announced...
Inflation will be higher again in this week as rising crude prices and weeking Rupee. For the government it will not be easy to fight with the Inflation with the rupee loosing its shine. Steel prices are at all time high.
Nifty close below the trendline. If it trades below 5030 then book all ur profits. and wait for the proper direction to take futher steps. 5010 seems to be a good support.

==>> Nifty faces resistance at trendline

Just after opening of the trading session, Nifty was seen trading in the negative zone. It was down by around 50 points to make a low of 5048, but in the closing session we saw some value buying in the the forntline stocks like RIL, Tata steel, LNT that helped Nifty, pull back in the positive zone. Today Nifty again closed very near to the resistance trendline ( as circled in the chart ). As mentioned in the morning, that there are not much short seen in the Nifty future and the pull back is expected. But still the Nifty have not closed above the trendline. So a word of cautious is still there.
The close above 5120 can take Nifty to 5200-5350. Close below 5040 can take Nifty again to the recent low.

Last wednesday some calls were posted. RPL @ 179.75, Adlabs @ 675, LITL @ 505. All the stocks have royally acheived the target and within short period. Viewers can themselves see the prices now. On 8th feb i have given a call for short NTPC @ 192.75 for the price tgt of 182, the same have been achieved. Still it looks week tgt 175- 172-166.

Oil surged more than $3 to a record life time high of $132 bbl after US government report showed a surprise drop in crude stock piles & fears of a worsening supply crunch.
1. GMR Infra looks good cmp 151 with closing SL of 149.8 tgt 155. Close above 155 will take it to 163.
2. Buy Unitech above 283 tgt 293-300 Closing SL of 279.6.
3. Book Profits in Tata Steel at 926.
Fresh Built up seen in Sesa goa, Sail, RPL.
4. RPL still lookd good.
5. Tata communications above 518 with SL of 505 HOLD

==>> OIL's not well in the market......

As mentioned yesterday that its clearly seen that the Nifty is facing resistance at the trendline. Nifty saw a slide from the same level. I have mentioned that the Nifty upside is more realistic, i will stick to the same till the close is not below the lower trendline (see chart).

Oil prices are touching new highs everyday. Its heading towards $150 bbl. Glod prices are sky rocketing. The demand for the gold is at 5 year low. Rupee is loosing its shine towards Dollar. These are some of the reasons that is putting breaks to our markets for futher rally.

In the late hours there have been pull back. There are not much shorts created in the Nifty futures. Nifty futures have seen some profit booking. Fresh short built up in the Banking sector. Axis bank, SBI, BOI have seen price falls with good short built up.

Asian markets are down by 1% -1.5%. Nifty has a good support at 5070 and 5010. close below the trendline can again bring the Nifty down till 4900.

==>> Nifty tgt 5400.

Inflation was high. Nifty is trying to give a breakout upside, but faces resistance at the trendline. Decisive breakout above the trendline will take Nifty to the target of 5400 in coming days. But breakout below the supprt trendline may take Nifty again to 4950 levels. Upside is likely possible. In the weekly chart also Nifty is facing resistance at the same levels.

==>> Nifty rallied sharply. Inflation will be high

According to me Inflation will be high this weekend. Viewers are adviced not to take any major position in the market, as the market has already seen a good rally in the last 2 days. So for the punters it will be easy to crack down the mkt, if there is any bad news.

Readers of the Blog surely have garned lot of money in their pocket. On April 04th it was mentioned that the IT sector really looks promising to me and according to em investor should BUY IT stocks. ((April 04---- IT Secotr looks very positive. For the last few days the Fall in out markets are supported by only IT sector. Investor should start investing in the IT sector, FMCG & pharma. IT sector looks more promissing....... BUY)).

Last 3 days it is been seen that the Nifty is taking a good support at the RED trendline ( Refer to chart). On Tuesday i have put my comments that the technically Nifty chart is not looking bad to me and my short term target for Nifty is 5200.

On 25th April i have posted some names of the stocks that are looking to me (((April 25---
Investors can BUY RPL, NTPC, PRAJ IND, LANCO INFRA.))) Viewers might see the price difference now.

Rupee is loosing its shine against Dollar. It is heading towards sharp decline. Crude is rising. Both will impact the growth of India. Nifty has a good support at 5000-4950 levels. Alabs 1st target of 675 was achieved. RPL has a good resistance at 189.1

==>> 3rd consecutive close above trendline

In the last 3 days Nifty has taken a good support at the RED trendline. Nifty in the early trading hours slipped till 4932 but bounced back smartly and closed above 5000.
Tata steel target was acheived. Arcelor Mittal has given 20% guidence for the next year. Corus will be announcing its results. Good results expected. IT Sector did pretty good, Dollar showed great strength aginst rupee.
Nifty will find resistance at 5050 levels. and support is at 4900.
These are some of the calls
1) 10:19:14 AM vishal_retail: RPL Looks good at 179.75 SL 178
2) 1:52:36 PM vishal_retail: Adlabs looks good 675-685 tgt sl 640
3) 3:25:45 PM vishal_retail: LITL close above 505 is a breakout

==>> Closed above the major trendline

Nifty opened strong on the back of the positive sentiment in the American markets and yesterdays close above 5000 levels. In the early session Nifty rallied till 5066 before plunging down till 4943 on the rumours that the Left party will not show green signal for the Nuclear deal and will take back the support given to the congress party. Nifty closed above the Red trendline as mentioned in my last blog also. Close below this major trendline will give a sign of cautious.

==>> Nifty closed above 5000

Finally Nifty closed above 5000. As mentioned that the Nifty has a good support at 4925-4900 and will bounce back from there. Yesterday Nifty made a low of 4913. In the chart we can clearly see that the Nifty took a good support at the RED trendline and 50 DMA. The 23.6% retracement level was nearby. IIP No.s were not that great, Inflation is a concern, Rupee is losing its strength. Technically markets are not looking bad.

Nifty support is at 4900 Nifty tgt is 5200.

==>> Nifty may bounce back

11:27:06 AM vishal_retail: Nifty is finding a good support at 4925-4900 levels. Nifty may bounce back

==>>BANGGGG

Finally, we are again at 5000 levels. Today Nifty after touching a high of 5087 in the early trades, showed good strength till the inflation figures were announced. Inflation was almost flat at 7.61%. That was not the only reason to drag the markets down. RIL was down almost 5%. Inflation is rising higher and higher. To control this, CRR might be hiked or intrest rate will be increased, stay away from the banking stocks.

Nifty closed at 4982.60 after touching a new low of 4969.4. Nifty always found a good support at 4970 levels. Nifty fell down 2 % but that did not stop some of the scripts to reach their targets. Nifty close below 4970-4950, it can dip till 4800 levels, but it seems so it is not possible, as there is no great news to pull the Nifty down till so much.

Buy and sell call for RIL was given with the upper and the lower break out prices. RIL could not manage to rally upside, but did pretty well sliding down. Another call was for PSTL, BUY above 383 tgt 390-398-415, managed to touch 399. Tata steel missed the target by Re.1; call was given on 06th May.

Read some article about the Indian markets in the leading news paper. They mentioned that there will be a good rally in the Indian market. But still argued and stood by the words. At the all time high also these guys mentioned that the Sensex will touch 23000 and Nifty 6500. and you may have definitely seen the effect………….

Always keep in mind, DON’T MARRY THE STOCKS. If the markets are bad then say it is ‘BAD’. Don’t try to make it good by just saying ‘GOOD’

==>> BANGS ALL THE TGT

BANG
RIL BANGS MY TGT OF 2565, NIFTY HITS A NEW LOW OF 5006.
TRADERS CAN START BUYING IN SMALL QTY. MAXIMUM THE NIFTY CAN GO UPTO 4950.

==>> Reliance & PSTL

RELIANCE. good support at 2647.5. target of 2710. cmp 2660... Break out below 2647 tgt 2620- 2600-2580-2565.

PSTL looks good above 383-390-398-415 cmp 384

==>> BE THE 1st TO BE INFORMED.....

As mentioned yesterday, Nifty good support is at 5070. It made a low of 5062 but the close is above 5070. If the Nifty trades for sometime below 5070, then likely target is 5030-5007. Inflation will be almost flat this week. If at all its high then the correction is already factored in since last 2 days. World markets are almost flat, but the situation in the US is still bad and can worsen also. Nifty is down 240 points from the recent high.

BE THE FIRST TO BE INFORMED. I am proud to say that I have informed my viewers well in advance about the correction in Indian markets. First information was given on Wednesday 30th April, and finally on Monday 05th May.

Nifty fell down more then 1%, But that could not stop TATA STEEL to touch my target of 849 yesterday.

Steel companies are arguing for the price decline. Some of the commodities face a ban on the future trades. Dollar is getting stronger as compared to Rupee. Re’s 3-day plunge biggest in 12 yrs.

==>> Nifty good support at 5070

BUY Nifty cmp 5094 with the SL of 5065 spot NIFTY. NIFTY good support at 5070. If this breaks then possibility of touching 5000 very soon. Tata steel and RIL may give a good support. IT will be week as the ruppee is gettin more stonger

==>> Third consecutive -ve close

Finally the bulls have taken some breath. Markets have started correcting a bit. In the last 3 days Nifty is down nearly 200 points from the top which it made on friday last week. But the fall is not that severe. Last 3 days mkts are making fresh bottom, from the recent top. Nifty in the last 2 days have given a close below the major resistance level 5150. For the futher up trend the Nifty need to close above 5200 levels.

Tata stel pretty good yesterday, touched high of 839, but fell on the news that the steel makers have to cut on the prices. Today again, we may see some correction on back of bad sentiment in the world markets. Traders are adviced not to take any positions before the makets stabilizes. In the late hours we may see some pull back. But the question is that, will this pull back stay???

Crude made a new high on 123.75. BUY relaince capital near 1400 with the SL of 1391 tgt 1505 CMP 1452. SELL NTPC tgt 185-182 SL 196.5 CMP 192.75

==>> Even the bulls need a break.

So today bulls stood aside and watched the market fall. Nifty close is below 38.2% retracement level & 200 DMA. 5200 levels have always been a very good support for Nifty. Yesterday I have clearly mentioned that the Nifty close below 5150 is bad. But luckily to give the breather, Nifty bottomed out at 5110 and closed above at 5151.90.
Two of the Leading news paper, yesterday had an article stating that the markets are in a good trend and the uptrend will continue till 5500 levels. But to achieve the mentioned target, event the bulls need some rest. Identifying that intervals, really helps in minting money. Nifty is already down 200 points from the recent high of 5298.85 made on 02nd May and the low of 5110 which it made today.
Still there is some more steam left, don’t buy now, wait for the perfect indication. Yesterdays all indicators were for negative trend or temporary hault in the rally.

In my past blogs, I have mentioned that, in the correction IT stocks will do good. Same thing u might have seen today. Infosys which was down -2.5%, gave sudden pull back in the late hours and the close was above +2%. Smart recovery in all the IT stocks.

Tata stell close above 825 will continue the rally till 849-858.

==>> We might see some correction

Nifty has bounced back from the low of 4468 made on 18th March 2008 to 5298 on 02nd May 2008. Nifty as per the Fibonacci theory from the highest and the lowest level made in Jan, 23.6% retracement level is at 4900 and the 38.2% retracement level is at 5172. Today also Nifty made a low of 5182.60.
In the chart the point 1. shows a clear breakout in the Nifty chart at 4700 and indicates the sure up-trend till 4950. Point 2. a Japanese candle stick pattern which indicates a temporary hault in the rally, but it is well above the 32.6% retracement level. Point 3. indiactes the RSI is heading towards the over bought zone, as the same way it touched in month of Jan. and in the future also. Nifty will face a good resistance at 5320-5400. As i have mentioned that the Nifty can touch 5400 levels. I still stand on my words, but it will not be that easy.
We will see some correction or some consolidation, Nifty can come down till 5000 levels, if it closes below 5150.