Saturday, November 20, 2010

Scam, Scam and just Scam

Its just scam everywhere. 3G scam, Adarsh Society scam in Mumbai, land scam in AP, Chara scam in Bihar etc…... You take any paper, read it; you will find only news about the scams in India. According to me the names should be changed to “The Scams of India”, “The Scam Times”, and “Scam Times”….. Indian politicians have dug a bigger hole than the British people. I wish we could still have been in the British rule. At least they have given many good things to India. Our current politicians have eaten up nearly $12L-Cr or $440 bn since our Independence. In still we are not an Independent country. British have given this country many things which are now consider heritage, but these politicians of Indian have filled up their own stomach and we common people are still the same. (This is not to hurt anyone’s feeling). Our common people are doing their best at NASA, Olympics, major IT have most of the staff from India. But we are still lacking behind. Last 3yrs we are listing that Swiss banks are flooded up with the Indian Black Money but our government have still not taken any steps to find out. Till now surely the money might have been laundered to some other country. FII’s will surely be worried about the Government strength in the coming years.

Next year, the U.S. government will have to borrow $4.2 trillion, according to the IMF. That's 27.8% of its annual economic output, up from 26.5% this year. By comparison, Greece needs $69 billion, or 23.8% of its annual gross domestic product. The point here is that with so much borrowing needed, interest rates are bound to continue rising.

According to me, with all of the borrowing that is taking place by countries around the world, interest rates are bound to continue climbing. According to estimates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the amount of money that advanced-nation governments will need to borrow in 2011 is a staggering $10.2 trillion. These debt levels have not been seen since the aftermath of World War II.

Revenue collections from indirect taxes i.e. Customs Duty, Central Excise and Service Tax have increased by 42.4% at the all-India level in the first seven months of the current financial year 2010-11 over the same period last year.

Asian markets tumbled down after South Korea’s Central Bank raised interest rates to curb inflation. Raisin rates may lead to slowing in growth rate. Asian countries are still worried as China may also take some similar actions. China has once again hiked the rates.

Rumors floated in the market that the PM has resigned after the 2G Scam. There were links forward from the Times of India e-paper.

This writer through this leading paper “Informed Investor” and through the blogspot” www.technicalsvishaldangaich.blogspot.com” has been continuously informing the reader to be cautious in the market. Indian markets are run up very fast we might surely see some serious correction. Nifty today closed below its support levels of 5980. This will surely call for some serious selling pressure in the Indian markets.

Continuing its downtrend, Indian markets once again tanked. Major Indices Sensex & Nifty tumbled down nearly 3% week on week basis. Small Cap Index had to bare the heat, which fell down more than 6%, while Midcap Index closed down 3% in red.

Reality stocks were the most that were affected. Reality Index fell down 9%. Oil & Gas index by 5%, Bankex tanked 3.4%. Metal Index corrected to the extent of 3.3%, IT 2.7 & Capital Goods by 2.5%. Mukesh and Anil Ambani stocks were in limelight. After the 3G Scam, Ril com sinked 13%, Ril Cap 12%, Ril Infra 10% and Ril Power by 8.4%. Adag might have surely lost most of his market cap in this week. Ril Ind tanked 6.5% to close below Rs.1000 at 996.

Axis bank merger with Enam Sec for consideration of Rs.2100cr to be paid to Enam. This flooded the markets with news that there will be some more same kind of merger in the markets. But the banks exposure in the MFI’s made a point of worry in the markets. Banking stocks fell like a dead pin. Axis bank corrected nearly 8%. JP associated lost 7%, Wipro 6%, Dlf 5.8%, T-Motor 5%, Suzlon and Cairn 6%, Hcc 10%, Chambal 6.5% ACL 7.8%.

In my last article I had clearly mentioned that the Nifty is made a Double Top formation in the daily chart. Nifty could not sustain above 6300 levels and corrected to close below its 20DMA. At the early days when the Nifty was approaching the 6300 levels and was trading above in overbought zone, that time also this writer had informed the reader that the RSI is trending downwards and the Nifty index is going upwards, that makes the same situation as in Jan 2008 scenario. Since then the markets remained volatile and tanked. Finally nifty is nearly its psychological figure of 6000. In my last article also I had mentioned that the Nifty close below 5980 levels, Nifty will come to 5800 levels. Nifty closed at 5890 down 3% in this week.

In the chart we can clearly see that the Nifty closed below it trendline which was drawn since quite a long time and its 23.6% retracement levels. Nifty below 5800 will come down to 5705 with immediate support. On the upside Nifty will continue to face resistance at resistance at 6020. Last week the MACD had given the sell signal with RSI trending downwards. Sensex immediate support will be at 19445. This week Nifty closed below its 50DMA.

Last weeks call

Sell AB Nuvo below 818 with SL of 825 tgt 801-791. Tgt achieved.

Sell Axis Bank below 1481 SL of 1489 tgt 1447. Tgt achieved. Made a low of 1370.

Buy Bajaj Auto above 1596. SL 1588. Did not trigger the price

Sell Corporation Bank below 763 tgt 746- 735 tgt 769. Tgt achieved. Made a low of 700.

Sell Glenmark below 344 tgt 338- 331. Tgt almost achieved. Made a low of 333.

Sell Hdfc bank below 2305 tgt 2240 SL of 2325. Tgt achieved. Made a low of 2303.

Sell Hindalco below 221 tgt 213- 201. Tgt almost achieved. Made a low of 206..

This Weeks call

Sell Acc below 736 SL of 744, tgt 706.

Sell Bob below 936 tgt 923 – 911 SL 945.

Sell Biocon below 392 SL 397 tgt 380.

Sell Hdfc bank below 2292 tgt 2255 SL 2314

Sell Lic housing SL of 1308 tgt 1263.

Sell Hindalco below 210 tgt 195 SL 214

Sell Icici bank below 1140. tgt 1100

Sell Mnm Tgt 735. SL of 759.

Sell Ril below 980 Tgt 960.

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