Saturday, November 13, 2010

China reported its biggest monthly trade surplus in 3 months for Oct. China’s customs agency reported Wed that the nation’s merchandise trade surplus increased to $27.15bn in Oct from a five month low of $16.6bn in Sep. due to a slowdown in imports, particularly of commodities.

Irish and international banks’ loan losses in the country may total least 85 billion euros ($117 billion), central bank Governor Patrick Honohan. Mortgage defaults may push the cost of Ireland’s bank bailout to 70 billion euros, more than the government’s estimate of 50 billion euros.

Asian stock markets fell Friday on concern China might further tighten credit and fears about Europe's debt crisis as global leaders meeting in South Korea struggled to soothe currency tensions. Markets were on edge as leaders from the Group of 20 major advanced and developing nations struggled at a summit in Seoul to resolve a U.S.-China currency dispute that threatens to escalate into a global trade war. Adding to negative sentiment was mounting speculation that Ireland - one of Europe's most financially troubled countries - would not be able to cut public spending and may have to resort to a bailout.

Oil has once again shown strength. Oil rose to its 25 month highs above $88 barrel on Thursday. Demand in the world’s top two oil consuming nation. China’s industrial production grew 13.1% in Oct from a year earlier, sending oil use in the world’s second biggest consumer to a record 8.92 million barrels per day.

In the G20 summit, there is surely going to be a big debate on the currency part. US will find difficult to prove that the China deliberately undervalues its currency to gain a trade advantage. US say a higher valued Yuan would make a Chinese exports costlier and US imports cheaper for the Chinese to buy. This way the US may reduce its trade deficit with China.

Late hour selling in the Indian markets were just the same as it was seen in the Korean Markets. Korean Index Kospi tanked nearly 3% in the last few minutes of trade on Thursday. Indian markets too corrected in the last few trading minutes.

Indian markets too reacted fairly in line with the Global markets. Major Indices tanked nearly 4% on week on week close. Midcap, Small Cap too could not bare the heat and corrected by 2.9% and 1.3% respectively. Reality Index closed down 6.8% while Bankex corrected by 6.1%, Capital goods Index by 4%, Metals 3.2%, IT 2.6% and Oil & Gas 4.2%.

Frontline stocks saw a massive sell off. After a smooth run up in the last week a group stocks fell like cards. Sbi corrected 13.5%, Bhel 6.2%, Ongc and Icici Bank by 6%. Bharti Airtel after the announcement of its Quarterly results tanked 7.5% on back of its loss on its South African unit. Other stocks which dragged the indices down were Cipla, Rcom, Relcap, and Ranbaxy fell 6 – 6.5% range. DLF by 8.5%, Idfc by 12%.

Coal India made its debut on the brousers. FPO of Powergrid has already attracted nearly 9 times the size of the FPO.

A similar pattern like a Double top pattern has been formed in the nifty and the Sensex chart. Nifty made a high and low of 6335 and 6056. Nifty closed at 6071. Sensex closed at 20156 after making an intra week high and low of 21075 and 20108. Nifty for the first time since Jan 2008 closed higher above 6300 levels, but could not sustain the sell off and corrected immediately from the next day onwards. Nifty which was in the formation of the Head and shoulder pattern in the last week corrected and closed below its 20DMA. Nifty found resistance at its 100% Fibonacci Retracement levels and corrected from there. Nifty did close above its 100% retracement level but tanked to make a low of 6056.

RSI should a sudden change in the trend. MACD is also in the way to give negative divergence. Nifty will find immediate support at 6024 levels. Below 6020 levels fall will continue till 5059 levels. Close below the same will trigger more sell off and the Nifty will hault near 5800 levels. Upside is capped for some period. Nifty has taken support at the trendline which was drawn since last week in the charts. On the higher side Nifty will continue to face resistance at 6144-6199 levels.

Last weeks call

Buy united Spirit with a SL of 1475. SL triggered.

Sell united Spirit below 1475 tgt. 1463. Made a low of 1400. Tgt achieved

Buy Torrent Power with SL of 295 tgt 320. SL triggered.

Sell Tcs close below 1050 SL 1060. SL triggered but made a low of 1048.

Buy Tata Steel above 611. SL of 601. Made a high of 647.

Buy Axis Bank above 1543 tgt 1552-1565. Made a high of 1584. tgt achieved.

Buy Baja Auto with a SL of 1575 tgt 1596-1606. Made a high of 1622. tgt achieved.

Buy Hdfc bank above 2380 SL of 2371. Made a high of 2420.

Buy Hdfc above 718 SL of 712. Made a high of 745.

This weeks call

Sell AB nuvo below 818 with SL of 825 tgt 801-791.

Sell Axis Bank below 1481 SL of 1489 tgt 1447.

Buy Bajaj Auto above 1596. SL 1588.

Sell Corporation Bank below 763 tgt 746- 735 tgt 769.

Sell Glenmark below 344 tgt 338- 331

Sell Hdfc bank below 2305 tgt 2240 SL of 2325.

Sell Hindalco beloe 221 tgt 213- 201

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