Nifty weekly close is at 4942 well above 4750, which was the last weeks close. After 10 weeks of harsh selling, Nifty for the first time closed above the previous weeks high. Nifty has made higher top and a higher bottom pattern in the weekly chart. In the daily chart, Nifty has made an inverted head and shoulder pattern.
Saturday, March 29, 2008
==>> Nifty weekly close above previous week for the first time in last 10 weeks
Nifty weekly close is at 4942 well above 4750, which was the last weeks close. After 10 weeks of harsh selling, Nifty for the first time closed above the previous weeks high. Nifty has made higher top and a higher bottom pattern in the weekly chart. In the daily chart, Nifty has made an inverted head and shoulder pattern.
Friday, March 28, 2008
==>> 280308
Nifty has a good support at 4750. Weekly close should be above that for further upward movemenent. Inflation will be more then the previous week. Market expectation is that there will be some rate sut in the market, but acc to me if the inflation is to be controlled then the only option is to keep the rate unchanged or increase the rates................
Thursday, March 27, 2008
==>> Nifty closed below 10DMA
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
==>> Short covering helped the rally
Today we saw great short covering in the large cap shares and even in Nifty future, that lead to a fantastic rally in our markets. This rally is one of the few intra day rally in our markets. On Monday i have clearly mentioned that investors should start buying, at least 15-20 % of the portfolio size. It was well informed on 18th March that the Nifty will definately take support at4450 ant the bounce back will be till 4900 levels. Congratulations for all the investor who bought at the lower levels and are still holding. Yesterday i have written that the nifty has a resistance at 4650-4700, and if it crosses then it will directly take the nifty till 4900 levels.
Further correction is still not rulled out as the wound that was happened is very deep and it is not so easy to heal. It will take some more time. We may see some more correction, but that won't be so severe. Inflation is still the concern in India.
Real estate prices have started correcting. In Banglore, Hyderabad the prices have come down by 10-15 %. This is the time for the Long term investors, and they should start investing in the markets. At least 15-20 % should be invested at the current levels. When the markets were at all time high people were talking about 6500 in Nifty and 23000 for Sensex, and suddenly the view changed drastically and the same people started commenting that nifty will be 3500 and Sensex below 10000...... WOW....... Till the time the support according to me is not broken, i will not comment on this....
Today we saw great short covering. Nifty also crossed and closed above one of the major resistance levels of 4800. Volumes were also very good. Please do not expect "V" shaped rally in our markets, as the investors, operators or the traders are still not confident about the market trend. Even the smallest bad news can create panic in our markets. Kindly buy only the good fundamental scripts and with a minimum investment period of 1 yr. Traders are adviced to keep their over night positions light.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
==>> Nifty resisistance at 4650
Nifty has a resistance at 4650 - 4700 levels. Today we saw some short covering in Nifty. Major lossers---- REAL ESTATE STOCKS....... Informed well in advance to stay away from the sector, even if the markets turns around.............
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
==>> Holi Speciallllllllllll
The Financial Sector and the real estate sector were once the darling counter's of every traders and investors. As mentioned earlier stay away from these sectors. Stocks like DLF, Purvankara, Omaxe, Ivr prime, HDIL, Unitech, Orbit have been in the roller coaster ride since the start of the current calender year. New entrance like BPTD, Oberio's and Uppal Group are thinkin about their entry in this scenario of the the market. DLF and Unitech have postponed their planned listings on international Exchanges. They will see some Bounce back when the markets turns around.
Today traders had a good time while trading. Nifty bounced back till 4618 from 4519, thanks to the global markets and a very good support at 4450. nifty will face a stiff resistance at4600-4750-4800. The pattern formation in the nifty chart which was made near 6350 levels clearly suggested that the Nifty will fall.The candle stick that was made today tells that there will be good bounce back tom till 4600-4750-4800 levels. But if the Nifty slips tom below 4450 then the fall could be till 4250, which according to me is rulled out temporarily.
Investors with 1 year prospective should invest around 15-25 % of the portfolio size at the current prices. Us mkts bounced back on the back of the excellent numbers announced by Goldman Sachs & lehman brothers. We have a long week end, so i would suggest traders to book profits in the late hours.
Advance Decline decline ratio on a monthly average basis have fallen to the 15 yr low in the current month. AD ratio as the name suggests is the ration of the stocks that gain ground to the number of declines . In the other words, lower the ratio higher the number of stocks that are loosing ground. The ratio is at low of 31:11. Three months ago the ratio was as high as 65:29. There have not been any occassions in the last 15 yrs when the ratio has come so dangerously close to the 30 mark. Check out for the ratio. If the Markets have to pull back, then th AD ratio also have to improve.
Holi hai.........
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
==>> Nifty good support at 4450
Yesterday Sensex tanked till 14738 and Nifty also followed the slide till 4482. Nifty will definately find good support at4450 till the time more bad news flow in our markets. Yesterday bank stocks and the Real sectors were worst affected, as mentioned earlier also, 'STAY FROM THE BANK AND REAL ESTATE STOCKS'. Investor should starting pouring money in our markets. Investors should invest their 15-20% of the portfolio at the current prices with the view of atleast 9-12 months.
Today markets will bounce back as the global markets are also in green or flat. Traders should buy Nifty with the SL of 4450 in spot Nifty..........
Saturday, March 15, 2008
==>>Fed meeting & Short covering helped Nifty gain some recovery
In my yesterdays message about the markets I have mentioned that, some of the patterns in the Nifty are showing weakness. Our markets are behaving like a candle flame. It moves in either direction very fast. I have mentioned that the close below 4620 can be proved fatal and the Nifty could fall down till 4450. In the last paragraph I have clearly mentioned in the bold letters that the Nifty has a good support at 4600 levels and people should buy RPL, Reliance and ICICI bank for short term, and the Nifty close will not be below 4620. I had given some buy calls of Nifty that really proved lucky to my clients. I had posted one of the buy call in the morning. My private clients earned around Rs.250 in Nifty future as compared to the increase in 135 points in Nifty spot.
This is the second time the Nifty has taken support at 4600. Yesterday the low of Nifty was 4580, but the close was still above 4620. So the close below 4620 can be fatal. The only point to worry is now is that the Nifty’s & Sensex new low. Today nifty bounced back and closed above my long-term trend line. This will not be the right time to comment on the markets, as our markets are more dependent on the global cues. Nifty has a resistance at 4750-4800.
Major event this weekend- Fed meeting to decide of rate cut. According to me the cut will be in the range of 0.75% to 1.00%.
As I have mentioned that the Inflation this week will be definitely higher than the previous week. It is at 5.11 vs 5.02.
In the early hours of the markets the discount between the Nifty future and Nifty spot was around Rs.20 but as soon as the markets opened after the sun outage time the Nifty future started showing strength and in the late hours Nifty future was in premium, that gave the positive sign.
The Nifty put prices of 4500-4600 came down due to selling pressure and the short covering in the call writing helped the Nifty gain 122 points and Sensex 403 points.
We need to still wait for the clear trend before commenting on the market.Friday, March 14, 2008
==>> nifty tryin to take good support at 4600
Nifty closed below the Long term trend line
Gold prices hit the 1000$/oz mark. Crude prices have hit the all time high of 111$. US governance hinted that there could be halt in the written downs of the losses incurred due to subprime crisises. Us markets closed in positive, marginally. Us employment data shows no change at 3.53 lakhs.
Yesterdays fall was due to melt down in the international markets and the week IIP data announced a day before.
I have clearly mentioned on wednesday that the formation of the Nifty chart clearly indicates that the Bulls have lost control over the markets and surrendered in front of the bears. You can clearly see the Nifty plunging down to 4580 from the open of 4868.7. I have mentioned that the Nifty support is at 4650-4620. Close below 4620 can pull Nifty down to 4450. It tried to settle down near 4650, there were tremendous short covering at those levels. I had given a buy call call on Nifty future with a strict SL of 4620 in Spot Nifty. But the market plunged again, due to the week opening of the Asian markets. Yesterday nifty made a new low of 4580 since23rd Jan . Sensex made a new low of as compared to the January fall. But in the closing hours we saw very smart recovery in Nifty future and the Nifty closed above the 4620 levels.
One more thing i have mentioned that the lower top and lower bottom formation in the Nifty chart is a point to be worried about. Yesterday the Nifty made a lower bottom at . The present trend shows weekness. View is still bearish, but the clear trend will be decided within a day or so. NIfty close is below my long term trendline.
In the previous blogs i have clearly mentioned that investors should stay away from the banking & Real Estate sector. These sectors will be badly hurt when the markets come down. There could be some more losses to our banks also due to the subprime. High interest cost and high real estate prices have lead to decrease in the demand for real estate. The real estate prices have increased 3 folds as compared to the increase in income of individual.
This week Inflation will be high as compared to last week.
There has been a tremendous increase in the OI in Nifty4500-4600 puts. There is good short built up yesterday. Till the time the shorts are not covered the markets are tend to be week. Nifty will take a good support at 4600 levels. Traders can take a risk buy buying with the SL of 4600 nifty spot. The close will not be below 4620. Nifty has a rest at 4700-4750. buy RPL, RELIANCE, ICICI BANK FOR SHORT TERM...
Thursday, March 13, 2008
==>> Mkts likely to bounce back from here
Acc to me the mkts shld bounce back from here. buy rpl, rnrl, ril in small qty... buy with a sl of 4670 nifty spot. strict SL
Nifty has a support at 4650-4620.
==>> Morning view
New lisiting today V guard. Book Profits. Dow and Nasdaq are in red on back of week dollar against the rest of world currency and all time high crude prices. Temperory relief by Fed cannot prevent the recession in America.
Look out for the Major levels. Good support at 15300-4600 levels. Likely to turn positive from these levels.
==>> Nifty trading at 4651
==>> IIP data spoils the party
Jan Industrial growth stands at 5.3% as against 11.6% yoy. Analysts expected a growth of 7.7%.
Jan Capital goods growth down from 16.3% to 2.1 % yoy. While jan Consumer Durable output is at 3.1% from 5.3% yoy.
In my Yesterdays Blog i have mentioned that the bears will run for their shorts, and we will see some good rally on the back of the short covering. i have mentioned that the Nifty can easily go upto 4950-5000 levels, and there is a good resistance at 5000 levels. Sensex and Nifty both opened with a gap. Nifty rallied till 5019.20 but within seconds it slided below 5000. In the morning i have clearly mentioned that short term traders should definitely book profits at the higher levels. Sensex slided down from positive 600 points to negative zone also. Same thing happened with the Nifty also. This is well informed to the viewers of my site.
Now 4800 will again act as a good support.
Nifty rest at 4950-5000 levels.
20 Dma has still not crossed the 200 dma from top to bottom. If this is crossed we again might see some selling pressure. But if the Nifty turns positive then it will have good resistance at 4950-5000 levels. If these Levels are broken then no one can stop the rally in the nifty till 5200 levels.
Today's candle stick pattern of the Nifty indicates that the Bulls in the early hours tired to get the control of the markets, but lost to the bears in the late hours. This could be due to profit booking or some fresh shorts created. We have seen the Sensex making double bottom at 15300 on Monday, and within 3 days the Sensex recovered around 1200 points. The carnage that has been done within these 2 months will not be so easily to recover.Technically speaking there are many resistance levels and very few support levels for our markets.
Asian markets are trading at around 1.5% up, then why are our markets slided to around 3.5% to -ve. Now can some one tell me where is the theory that If the worlds are doing good our markets will also do good and vice versa. There is no such kind of theory in the market. It is just the perception of the market players to take risk at what levels.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
==>> Partial book profits
==>> Run for your shorts
Y'day i have clearly informed that our mkts will see some good rally even though the worlds markets are in Red. Our markets opened in red but in the early hours we saw some good short covering, and as mentioned that the Nifty can easily go upto 4950-5000 levels. There is good resistance at 5000 levels. We may see some fresh shorts at those levels.
Rural Eletrification Co. Ltd Listing on Wednesday. Strategy good. Grey market premium 15-20Rs.
Nifty support is the same. Resistance at 4950-5000.
BUY Rpl, Shivaani oil, Gss america above 555, Sesagoa, IRB, Bgr Energy.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
==>> Nifty closed at 4800.4
Nifty support is at 4630-4640 & 4450.
Resistance at 4800-4950-5000.
In the morning I have clearly mentioned that we might see some pull back in out markets, as Nifty took support at 4630. It is a long-term trend line support from 2006 onwards. You can clearly see in the chart that today Nifty took support at the same trend line and the close is well above the trend line. Nifty still had a good resistance at 4800, But closed at 4800.40.
Yesterday Sensex made a double Bottom at 15300 but the Nifty is still very far from its previous low.
In the morning I have posted one massage about the increase in the circuit levels of the “B” group shares. Due to this action many “B” group shares which were locked at the lower 5% circuit and now locked at 10 % lower circuit. Retail investors who are trapped in these scripts are loosing money much faster. On the other hand some scripts were out of the lower circuits also. In the hope of earning fast I think that all the markets operator will be back in action. But if the downtrend continues the retail clients will be screwed up big time. I really could not find a good reason for this step, at this juncture. I hope the operators are back into action.
==>> Nifty support at 4630
In such a Bad maraket, Circuit levels of many B group scripts have been increased from 5% to 10%. Why is that so?? Is the Sebi trying to bring in the operators to run the scripts or they are trying to killing the remainig retail clients also.....
Nifty long term Trend line support acc to me is near 4630. The close below this will pull down Nifty till 4450.Intraday low below 4630 shld be taken into consideration. close above or below that levels shld be taken into consideration. We might see some pull back............
Friday, March 07, 2008
==>> Nifty trading below the major support levels.
Thursday, March 06, 2008
==>> Nifty took support at 4800
Nifty immediately after opening slided in the negative zone till 4849, but today the bulls were on the front seat. There was some fresh buying and some short covering till 4915,because of the good support at 4800. Bears again tried to trap the Bulls by fresh shorts and the Nifty again tanked till 4849. But at 4849 Nifty made a double bottom and the rally continued till 4936.65. Today’s market session was highly volatile.
Since last 2 consecutive days Nifty is taking support at 4800 levels that proves that this is the “Father of all support’s”. Short covering in Nifty can be till 4950-5070-5200. Support still remains the same. Watch out for these crucial levels.
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
==>> NIfty at a very crucial levels 4800
As mentioned earlier on 03/03/08 that the Nifty has a good support at 4800 levels. You can see that the Nifty made a low of 4812.95, which is very close to the support level mentioned. I have also mentioned that the close below 4800 can take Nifty to 4450. Nifty bounced back from 4812.95 levels and there was good short covering in mid hours. Due to the short covering Nifty rallied till 4950, but closed at 4864.25.
In the today’s leading paper, I read an article about; Mr. Warren Buffet discussing about the scary Subprime losses in US of nearly $600 bn. Initially it was estimated at $400 bn. Losses, which has incurred by major Financial Institutions will surely take a lot of time to heal.
To be named some, Citi Group, UBS, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, HSBC, etc.. The black clouds are not only on these banks, even some of the Indian Banks too have big exposure to credit derivatives. Credit derivatives are instruments for which the underlying asset is a loan or a bond. Marking to market means valuing a portfolio based on the prevailing market price.
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
Subprime crisis can come in India also.
I would rather tell investors not to Buy any bank and the Real estate co.
==>>Nifty support at 4800
PLEASE READ MY EARLIER BLOG POSTED ON 22nd FEB 2008.
Investors can refer to the message, which was posted on 22nd Feb 2008, in that I have clearly mentioned that till the time the nifty close is not above 5400 “NO TEJI”. ON 21st of Feb 2008 I have also mentioned that the close below the “Support” trend line, can pull down the Nifty till 4800 levels. And as per the Lower top and lower Bottom formation the Nifty can tank till 4800 levels.
As mentioned earlier that the “Support” & the “Rest” trend line in very crucial level to decide about the trend in Nifty. In today’s chart investors can easily see that the Nifty close is well below the ”Support” trend line. As soon as the “Support” trend line was broken there was a huge sell off in the market. As a result Nifty closed at 4953.
Nifty 23.8 % retracement level from 6357 & 4448 is at 5177 and my convergence of “Support” and “Rest” trend line is almost at the same level. So there was double confirmation of the Nifty moving either side. Bears took the front seat and dragged the Nifty down till 4953 levels.
The next and the major support are at 4800 levels. I had also mentioned that the close below 4800 levels could bring the Nifty to the 4450 levels also.
Monday, March 03, 2008
==>>Nifty at 5050
Saturday, March 01, 2008
==>> Budget Special
Being an election year, as expected, the FM came out with a Budget that can be rated as "socially relevant" one. The stock market is extremely unhappy with the Budget right now. The increase of short term capital gains tax from 10% to 15% has most certainly hurt the sentiments. Moreover, there has been no clarification from the Finance Minister about the exact tenure of the term “short term”. This ambiguity has added on to the bearish sentiments.
Corporate tax, surcharge and dividend tax remained untouched, but also did not helped.
The BUDGET HIGHLIGHT has been posted.
As mentioned that the Nifty has good support at 5200-5176, and the close is well above 5176. The fall was due to the bad sentiment and due to the non clearance of the short term capital gains. As mentioned that the trend will be cleared within1-2 days, if the Nifty close is above 5290 then the rally can be up to atleast 5400.
The Nifty has a good support at 5176-5050.
Budget Highlights
- Dividend Distribution Tax unchanged at 15%
- Central Sales Tax cut to 2% from 3% - Positive for Food Processing companies –
- India to start GST from April 1, 2010
- No Change in STT Rates
- To withdraw banking cash transaction tax from April 1, 2009
- To give 5 Year Tax Holiday for Hotels in some areas
- Increase in short term capital gain tax from 10% to 15%
- On an income of Rs5 lakhs - savings amount to Rs45,000
- To grant 5 year tax holiday for new hospitals to be setup in specified areas - +ve for Apollo Hospital, Fortis etc.
- Weighted deduction of 125% for R&D – Buy on Ranbaxy Labs and Dr Reddy Labs
- Major Income tax Changes - to boost consumer spending Buy Marico and GSK Consumer
- No change in corporate tax rate and no change even in surcharge
- In case of Women, Exemption limit increased to Rs1,80,000
- Senior citizen exemption raised from 1,95,000 to 2,25,000
- Proposes to increase personal income tax exemption limit to Rs1,50,000
- Minimum relief Rs4000 for every assesse
- Excise duty on bulk cement imposed at Rs400/tonne or 14% Ad valorem whichever is higher - Neutral for Cement companies
- Customised software under service tax net
- Higher excise on packaged software (8% to 12%) - Negative for Software sector
- To tax Filter and Non Filter Cigarettes on Par - Marginally negative for ITC
- Fall in duty on wireless data cords from 16% to Nil - Positive for Telecom Sector
- No change in excise duty structure on Retail Cement
- To cut excise duty on all goods in Pharma from 16% to 8% - Positive for Pharma Sector
- To cut excise on some papers, paper products
- To reduce excise duty on two wheelers from 16% to 12% Buy Bajaj Auto
- To reduce excise duty on small cars from 16% to 12% Buy Maruti and Tata Motors
- To reduce General CENVAT rate from 16% to 14%
- To cut customs duty on crude, unrefined sulphur
- To cut project import duty to 5% from 7.5%
- Custom Duty reduced to Nil on Steel melting scrap from 5% - Positive for Non Integrated Steel Players
- India to cut duty on certan bulk drugs to 5% - Positive for Pharma Sector
- Proposes No Change in Peak Customs Duty
- Current Tax-GDP ratio at 12.5
- Fiscal Deficit to be 2.5% by FY09 - Need only 1 year to eliminate Revenue Deficit
- Revenue Deficit to be 1.4% and Fiscal Deficit to be 3.1% of GDP
- Planned Expenditure about 34.2% of total expenditure
- - India to spend Rs 1.05Trn on Defense sector, up 10% - Positive for Defense Companies
- Allocation for TUF loan hiked about 20% - +ve for Textile Sector
- Thrust on Smart Cards Buy on Bartronics India
- Accelerating bidding process for 5 UMPPs - +ve for PFC
- Likelky Subvention of agri loans waivers to neutralise impact on banks
- Government allocates RS16.8bn for IT Sector Buy on 3i Infotech and TCS
- India to spend more on Textile Sector - Buy on Bombay Dyeing and Alok Ind
- India to get as much as $8bn from latest Gas, Oil
- India to allocate Rs129 bn for highways Buy on HCC,IVRCL
- National Fund for Power Transmission and Distribution
- To award 4th UMPP shortly - +ve for Power
- India to achive power expansion target in 11th plan - +ve for Companies like BHEL
- Waiver of previous loans and fresh loans - Positive for Agriculture/ Fertiliser companies
- India to spend more on Rural Development and Roads - Positive for Infrastructure sector
- Manufacturing slowdown due to rising rates and rupee
- Growht in capital goods still high at 20.2%
- Savings Rate at 35.6% and Investment Rate at 36.3% by end of 2008
- Total value of overdue loans including OTS at Rs60,000cr
- Debt Waiver to be completed by June 30 2008 - Farmers to be eligible for fresh loans post waiver
- Clarity awaited on details of scheme regarding reimbursement to banks of waiver amounts
- Waiver Amounts to 4% of Total Bank
- - Scheme of debt waiver of all agri loans upto March 2007 - Negative for Banking Sector
- - FM eyeing Elections - Slew of populist measures announced
- Complete waiver of loans for marginal and small farmers
- Government introduces scheme for debt waivers for
- FM says fertiliser subsidy to continue
- 5 lac hectare increased irrigation potential
- India to spend Rs200bn on irrigation-Positive for Finolex Ind and Jain Irrigation
- Government to spend additional Rs120bn on 5-Yr plan programs
- Government increases thrust on santitation - s Buy Electrosteel Castings
- Increase in sanitation allocation positive for DI pipe makers such as Electrosteel castings
- Increased allocation to Rajiv Gandhi Drinking water scheme to Rs7300cr from Rs6500cr, beneficial to companies like IVRCL
- Increased spending on polio to benefit Panacea Biotech
- India to spend Rs120bn on National Rural Health Plan
- Education and Health Sector to be twin pillars of growth
- 16,534cr allocated for Health Sector an increase of about 15%
- Additional allocation for education beneficial for Everonn, Educomp, Core Projects, NIIT etc
- India to increase spending on Bharat Nirman plan
- Allocation for education to be raised to Rs34,400cr from Rs28,674cr
- Allocation for education to be increased by 20%
- India to increase Gross Budgetary support in FY09
- Agriculture estimates to grow at 2.6% for FY08
- FM confident of maintaining 8.8% GDP growth average
- FM says agri growth disappointing