Markets opened up strong but remained volatile through out the day. Nifty touched its new high in 2009. Nifty made a high of 5214 before closing at 5187.95 with marginal gain of 10 points Sensex gained nearly 40 points to close at 17401. It seems that the Nifty is facing stiff resistance at 5200 levels. Decisive breakout in the either side is expected. If bought at the lower levels, profit should be booked at the higher levels.

Finally the Nifty have crossed its resistance levels above 5185 levels. Nifty made a high of 5197.90 but closed below 5178 levels. RSI is also trending positive, the same have also crossed above the trendline. MACD is also trying to give some positive divergence. Next week being a short week with the years last expiry month, expect some wild movements in the markets. Inflow in the Indian equity markets is nearly at its all time high at $17.126 bn. Nifty closed below its resistance level of 5185. close above the same will take the Nifty to 5300 levels.

As mentioned in my last blog that the markets are looking heavy and have given a breakout in the downside. Volumes in the markets seems to be dried up. NSE cash market volumes were just Rs.13700CR. On Friday Nifty closed outside the triangular pattern and the RSI too closed below the trendline. Inflation too make higher. Last 2 weeks have been very dry for the Indian markets. Nifty closed at its support levels of 5020. Close below this Nifty will continue to slide till 4900 levels.

==>> Correction on the wayyyyyyy

It’s the same old story that has been repeated. The pain is given again and again, but this time, it can be proved to be fatal. This is the 3rd time the Nifty has been topped up. No doubt the Nifty have made its 2009 high at 5182.55, but the sword till hangs on the heads of the Bulls & the Bears.

Markets for the week ended on the flattish note. Last week gains have been stalled in the current week. Sensex & Nifty closed flat. Small Cap Index was the only index that gained in the week, rest closed marginally down. Capital goods Index was the major gainers for the week closing higher by 3.6%. Bhel contribute the most closing higher by 7%, LNT followed the suite rising 4.2% and Suzlon 4.6%. Telecom stocks also pretty well. Idea surged 9%, Bharti 6.7% and Tata 7.5%. The Metal Index lost 3%, while Sterlite lost 5.5%, Tata Steel & Nalco lost 5%. In the Index Cipla lost 5%, Cairn & SBI lost 2.8%. Midcap and Smallcap stocks gained. Kernex gained 51% in the week. Foursoft & FCS gained 35%, KRBL surged 30%. Time Technoplast, Rain commodities & Manaksia gained in the range of 20-25%. Godrej Properties IPO has come up with the IPO, but Godrej Ind lost nearly 16% in the week. Skumar, GVK Power & Renuka lost 8%.

Markets on Friday closed lower on back of less that expected IIP data. Markets Expected IIP data to be nearly12% mom, but the actual came at 10.3% v/s 9.6% mom. Markets dipped as soon as the IIP data was announced were announced. Cox & Kings which got listed gained nearly 30% on the day of the listing.

Technically the Nifty chart has made a breakout pattern in the downward side. In the chart we can clearly see that the RSI was trading in the triangular pattern. And have given a breakout in the downside. The same was mentioned on my blog www.technicalsvishaldangaich.blogspot.com.

On the first day of the week, Nifty took support of the 20DMA and bounced back on the very next day to close at 5148 levels. Next 3 days Nifty closed with marginal loss and gain. In the expectation of good IIP data and recovery in the global markets on Friday, Indian markets too opened in green. Sensex opened higher and pre lunch period was up high nearly 130 points, but tanked immediately after the IIP data was released. Sensex dipped nearly 100 points down. Nifty made an all time high of 2009 at 5182.55 levels, failing to cross over the 5185 levels as mentioned earlier in my article. Nifty for a quite long time was trading in the parallel trendline. But on the last day closed below the same. RSI which was also trading in the triangular pattern has given a breakout pattern in the downside. Monday trading pattern will give the confirmation for the further movement.

Update on last week’s call
Short Nifty below 5110 tgt 5040-5015- made a low of 5051
Short Tata Steel below 570 made a low of 536
Buy Rcom above 181.50 SL 176. Made a high of 190
In small Cap. Buy Aksh optifiber cmp 21.70. Made a high of 23.75

This week’s call
Short BOB below 496 with SL of 505.
Short BPCL below 626 tgt price 596 SL 634
Sell ICICI bank above 887 or short below 844.

IF Nifty & RSI closes below the trendline then the Nifty chart will have the Tripple top formation that will be bad for the markets. close above 5185 is necessary for further movement, which is unlikely to achieve.. Hold ur trades with suitable SL. ( see the last chart added)

Markets opened by week, but the post lunch session helped the markets close in green. Nifty closed up 23 points at 5134 after making a low of 5084. Sensex closed at 17189 up marginally by 64 points. Nifty chart shows that its is been trading in a very narrow range and in a two parallel trendline. RSI movement is in a triangle pattern. break out either side will decide the further movements. Likely movement is upside. MACD will too give a positive divergence. IIP data expectation are very good, that may lead to breakout pattern in the upside movement. Nifty is likely to cross the 5185 levels. Breakout pattern will be above 5185 only. Close above the same will take Nifty to 5300 levels. Support at 5050 levels. (Watch the Nifty chart)

==>> Brekout pattern above 5185 levels

Markets opened up on a flattish note. In the early trades due to some operators buying in the Nifty futures kept the markets afloat till the mid session. Markets dipped marginally in the red zone, but recovered very fast. Sensex gained more than 200 points to close at 17227 up 244 points while Nifty faced resistance at 5150 levels and closed at 5147 with a net gain of 84 points. Post session buy orders might have surely created panic in the minds of the Bears. RIl gained nearly 2.5%, Bharti Airtel 5%. Nifty which was trading at a premium of just 2-3rs in the early session was at a premium of around Rs.10 in the late hours of the mkts. Bulls are trying again to make a breakout in the Nifty which is only above 5185 levels. This is the 3 time the Nifty will try for the breakout above the same. RSI have also taken support at the trendline. MACD might also show positive divergence. Breakout can only be above when the Nifty close is above 5185 levels.

Last week the markets were bad, on back of the ongoing cash crunch in the Dubai. But the markets recovered smartly on the next day itself. Markets opened with the bang on the very first day. Nifty recovered and closed above the psychological figure of 5000. Abu Dhabi continued their downward journey, but the impact was not felt in the Global markets. Dubai is not the only place were the people have over spent. There may be many ‘Dubai’s’ lying hidden around the world. China or India could have some of those places too which are over spending and over leveraging. In the last 2-3 years the borrowings from the cash starving companies have grown at a very fast speed. But a slight correction in the Indian markets in early 2008 made a disastrous situation for the companies who have raised money via FCCBs. Over borrowing internal and the Global market can lead to disaster in the Indian markets too in the coming years.

This week major indices recovered. BSE Index gained nearly 2.7%, while NSE outperformed by surging almost 3.3%. Small Cap index was the winner by gaining nearly 6.5% on week to week basis. Index gainers were Tata Motors which surged 12.5% while Unitech and RIL surged in the range of 4-5% and DLF 8.2%. Hero Honda & HUL lost almost 4.5%. Pharma Index gained 6.6%. Ranbaxy contributed the most 13.5% and Cipla by 12.5%. Frontline gainers were Sail 11%, Hindalco 10.5% and Nalco 8.5%. In the telecom stocks Idea gained the most 12%, Rcom 7.5% & Bharti 9.2%. In the Aviation stocks Jet continued its flying streak by gaining 27% in a week, Spice Jet gained 25%. Other Midcap stocks gainers were Rama Newsprint 62%, Tata Elxsi 31%, Nelco 27%, Sasken 24% & Hexaware 19%.

Takeover war of Great Offshore, between Bharti Shipyard & ABG Shipyard is finally come to an end. ABG Shipyard left the war in between just a day before the day of the open offer. ABG Shipyard sold its holding in Great offshore and made handsome profits of Rs 52cr in few days. ABG gained 13% in a week, while Bharti Shipyard gained 43%. But Great offshore lost 3.5% on week to week basis.

Last week on Friday, Markets recovered smartly. Nifty bounced back after making a low below 4800 levels on back of the ongoing issues in Dubai. Nifty took support at the 20DMA. But the markets bounced back sharply on the very next day. Nifty opened with a gap and closed above the 100DMA. The rally continued on the next day too. But in the last 3 days Nifty is finding it hard to close above the recent high of 5185 levels. Nifty have made a Doji pattern in the last 2 days. As mentioned in the last week too that Nifty will find resistance at the 5185 levels. If we check the Bollinger band pattern, we may see some wild movements in the near future. Bullish Breakout pattern will be above 5185 levels only. Nifty will find support at 5036-5015.

Short Nifty below 5110 tgt 5040-5015.

Short Tata Steel below 570

Buy Rcom above 181.50 SL 176.

In small Cap. Buy Aksh optifiber cmp 21.70.

Nifty finding it hard to cross the recent high of 5185. Once again tried to cross the 5185 mark, but the selling pressure pushed the Nifty down to 5123 after making an Intraday low of 5106. Markets opened up strong. Sensex opened nearly 150 points positive. but the markets were very volatile. Sensex high an intra day high of 17361. Due to Volatility Sensex closed down at 17185 levels. Nifty made a high of 5181. As mentioned in my earlier article also that the Nifty will continue to face resistance at 5185 levels. As per the Candlestick pattern, we can see that the Nifty in the last 2 days is making a Doji pattern on the upper side. If the Nifty trades below today's close, then i would suggest that the Buy positions should be avoided temporary. Buy positions should be taken only if the Nifty trades above 5185 levels.

Last week the Nifty made an Intra day low of 4806 and bounced back sharply on the same day, and since that day markets continued to gain. Today Nifty closed at 5118.55 after hitting an Intra day high of 5161.75. It seems so that, Nifty is finding good support at the 4800 levels but still facing resistance at 5185 levels (recent high). Buying seems to happening only in the front line stocks. Mid cap stocks is lacking way behind. Seems that the markets still facing some resistance at the higher levels and lacks confidence. Traders are waiting on the side lines to get involved in the markets. Nifty above 5185 will give bullish breakout signal and that will lead to another round of short covering till 5300 levels. Nifty will continue to have support at 5015 levels.
Short Rel Capital below 845 with tgt of 807. SL 860
BUY Axis Bank with SL of 1041.
BUY HDFC bank close above 1810 with Sl of 1802

26/11. One of the worst days in history of the Mumbai City, which was rocked by the terrorist attack a year
It's been another record day in the Indian Capital Markets. The Markets and the F&O segment, both recorded highest ever turnover on the last day of the November series. The markets reported total turnover of more than Rs 1.50 Lac Crores. Contribution from the F&O sector has created and history in the Indian markets, contributing around Rs .1.37L Cr. NSe cash volumes were at Rs. 17,600 Cr. Bse at Rs. 4488 Cr.
In the Nov Series Major Indices BSE & NSE gained nearly 5%.

World stock markets fell sharply on Thursday as investors fretted over the debt problems at Dubai World, a government investment company, and the continued fall in the dollar.

Markets are usually relatively quiet when Wall Street is closed for a holiday, as it is Thursday for Thanksgiving Day, not so today.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 99.84 points, or 1.9 percent, at 5,264.97, although trading has been halted for over an hour because of technical problems. Germany's DAX fell 115.17 points, or 2 percent, to 5,687.85 while the CAC-40 in France was 84.92 points, or 2.2 percent, lower at 3,724.24.

Earlier in Asia, the Shanghai index tanked 119.19 points, or 3.6 percent, to close at 3,170.98, its biggest one-day fall since August 31, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 1.8 percent to 22,210.41.

Sentiment in stocks has been dented by the news that Dubai World, which is thought to have debts totaling around $60 billion, has asked creditors if it can postpone its forthcoming payments until May. That has stoked fears of a potential default and contagion around the global financial system, particularly in emerging markets.

The key benchmark indices pared gains after hitting their highest level in more than a month as investors cashed on gains. The BSE 30-share Sensex was up 96.29 points or 0.56%, off close to 65 points from the day's high and up close to 100 points from the day's low. The Sensex and the 50-unit S&P CNX Nifty today, 25 November 2009, struck their highest levels in more than a month.
Index heavyweight Reliance Industries pared gains. The stock rose today after the firm reopened retail fuel outlets. Auto and metal stocks gained. But realty stocks fell. The market breadth was positive, easing from a strong breadth in early trade.

The market recovered after falling into the red for a brief period in early trade. The market extended gains later. The market pared gains after hitting a one-month high in afternoon trade. Market pared gains from the day's high in mid-afternoon trade. The market may remain volatile over the next two days traders roll over positions in the derivative segment from November 2009 series to December 2009 series ahead of the expiry of the near-month November
2009 contracts on Thursday, 26 November 2009.

Rollover in Nifty futures was about 54% at the end of Tuesday's (24 November 2009) trading. Rollover in Min Nifty futures was about 33%. The market wide rollover was about 48%. In individual stocks, Hindustan Unilever, Maruti Suzuki, Power Grid Corporation, Reliance Power and Bharat Heavy Electricals (Bhel), have witnessed high rollover

Thanks to the cyclone which was about the affect India, but passed away without affecting India. But the Indian markets felt the tremor. Bears had a bad day. Bulls kept of pressing the buttons and the markets continued to rally till the end of the session. Sensex jumped 400 points to close at 16450. and Nifty closed above 5000 mark again, gaining 122 points. Nifty closed above 4950 levels that too with good volumes. Yesterday in the MACD pattern the Short term moving average is trying to cross the long term moving average from below. But not yet crossed convincingly. Markets might open flattish or slightly negative after yesterdays bull run.

Markets opened up strong, but as mentioned in my earlier blog that Nifty will face resistance at 4950 levels, slipped down to close below 4900 levels. RIL Ind which was one of the main dragger in the early hours of the trade, slipped down to the negative zone, before closing by 1.5%. PSU stocks were again on the move, resulting in NMDC locked in 20% upper circuit.

Markets after opening strong corrected and closed down with a marginal loss. Nifty took support at the 50DMA. Nifty closed below the 4900 levels. A Doji pattern have been made. Markets can continue to slide tomorrow also. Nifty will have support at 4800 levels.

Indian Markets continued their winning streak. Markets men jumped in the markets as if there is no trading day tommorrow. Nifty crossed its resistance levels of 4850 and closed above the psychological 4900 mark. Sensex gained 350 in the late hours and Nifty closed above gaining around100 points. Banking stocks were the star performer today. Heavyweights like RIL, ITC also gained nearly 3.5%. Bankex was up almost 5%. Global markets too added to the shine. Gold continued to make new highs...
Nifty will find resistance at 4950 levels. The bounce back have been too fast to digest. today Nifty closed at the 50 DMA.
BUY Bharti Airtel For short term delivery SL 290

As mentioned in my last article which was posted yesterday, post trading hours, that the markets today can bounce back. Early this morning, SGX Nifty was trading higher at 75 points plus. Markets opened up with a gap. Markets continued to rally with some volatility, but finally closed higher by more that 500 points. Sensex closed higher at 15912 up by 507 points. Nifty closed up by 147 points at 4711 levels. Technically, Nifty have closed above its 100DMA. But could engulfed the yesterdays candel stick pattern. As the Nifty had closed below its major support of 4750 levels, tomorrows trading pattern will give further clear picture. Nifty is still in the hands of the Bears, todays rally may be just a small bounce back. Nifty should logically fall to 4450 levels.
Market volumes crossed Rs 95K Cr today. High Beta stocks perfomed well.
Rel capital have take good support at 200 DMA, BUY above 740 tgt 762. SL tgt 732.
State Bank have retraced from 23.60% from the low made in the month of Mar to the recent high.

In the last 10 trading session, since the Nifty made the 2009 high, in the 9 trading session the markets have closed in Red. On 20th Oct 2009, when the Nifty made its 2009 high at 5181 levels, the markets have been continously slipping down to make a low of 4538 levels below its 100 DMA. Tday Nifty slipped below at its major support levels of 4650 and closed at4542. The 14 day RSI have reached the over sold zone. Yesterday nIfty closed below the trendline, signaling further downward movement. This writer had warned the readers high of this blog when the markets were trading at their 2009, that the markets will correct. Since then there is no stopping to this market. Bears have taken good control of the markets, leading the fall of 650 points in Nifty Index.
Nifty will find support at 4400 levels. But If this too breaks with volumes, then 4200 in Nifty can be breached.

=>> Oct Series ended on the bad note

Oct Series ended on the bad note dragging the Index down by almost 4%. Heavy sell in the current week dragged down the Index by 4.4% in the Oct Series. Nifty fell down by almost 4.7%. Smallcap Index lost 3.7% and Midcap closed down marginally by 0.25%. Some of the major lossers were Unitech 25.5%, Idea 27.25%, Punj 22%, Aptech 33%, Relcap 20%. In the gainers list ITC gained 11%, HUL 8.5% and JSPL gained 9%.

Inflation turned higher. Inflation for the week ended 1.51% v/s 1.21% (wow) comparison.

RIL Q2 numbers are down. PAT came at Rs. 3852 CR vs Rs. 4122 Cr (YoY) on Higher Sales.

Yesterday Nifty too good support at the 61.8% retracement levels. Nifty had closed marginally below the 50DMA. Prior opening of the Indian markets, SGX Nifty was trading below 4800 levels down by 75 points. Global markets were too in deep red. US Markets continued shelling out their earlier gains made in the month of Oct. As mentioned in the article dated 1st OCt, that the month of Oct has not been good for the Equity markets and the absurd rally in the Indian markets has to be come to and end. Nifty had come down from 5182 levels to 4749 levels down by 433 points. In the chart we can see that the Nifty have taken good support at the trendline but the RSI is still trending downwards signaling more weakness in the near future. NIfty have also broken down from the Head and Shoulder pattern.

Nifty witnessed huge selling on the expiry day and the closed below 4750 levels. Volumes were high in the markets. F&O turnover again remained above Rs.1 Lac Cr and the total market turnover was Rs 1.43 Lac Cr. F&O counters had a huge rush for the short rollovers. Markets opened in red. Post lunch Bulls tried to cover the markets lost points but in the last 1/2 hour wewap selling, again dragged down the markets. Sensex which was trading down by just 50 points again tanked down in the last hour to almost 250 points, and finally shut its shop at 16052.72 down 231 points. Nifty may fall down to 4679 levels.

In my last article I had given short call on Rel Capital with price tgt of 740 & Maruti of 1431.

Recored volumes in the markets drag down the Indian Equity markets. Hawkish Credit Policy announced by the Governor of RBI too helped the Bears to pull down the markets down by almost 2.00-2.50%. It kept CRR (cash reserve ratio), Repo and Reverse Repo rate unchanged while hiked SLR (statutory liquidity ratio) to 25% from 24%. Also revised the Inflation target to 6.50% from 5% for March 2010. Banks the Reality stocks tumbled down. SBi lost nearly 4.5% and ICICI Bank too lost near 6%. As per the analyst SBI may require additional provising of Rs.3800 CR and ICICI nearly Rs.1600 Cr as they have 50% coverage ratio.
Nifty closed below 4850 levels on the record volumes. Markets recorded the third highest total volumes of Rs1.46 Lakh Cr. And the F&O segment recorded the highest turnover ever. Global markets too turned negative.
Nifty closed below 4850 to make and intra day low of 4829 before closing at 4846.70 down by almost 2.5%. Sensex closed at 16353 down by 387 points or 2.31%. Nifty has fallen down almost 7% from its recent high. As mentioned in my earlier blogs also that the markets are looking week and can come down. nifty will have good support at 4800 levels. In the current session Nifty took support at its 50DMA.

Sell Maruti tgt 1431
Sell Rel Capital tgt 740

Highlights of RBI's Mid-term review of FY10 Annual Policy

KEY MEASURES

* Hikes banks' SLR to 25% of NDTL effective from Nov 7
* CRR, reverse repo, repo rate kept unchanged
* Ups Mar-end WPI inflation estimate to 6.5% with upside bias
* FY10 GDP growth projection unchanged at 6.0% with an upside bias
* Cuts FY10 credit growth projection to 18% from 20% Jul policy
* Cuts FY10 money supply growth estimate to 17% vs 18% earlier
* Cuts FY10 non-food credit growth estimate to 18% from 20%
* Banks' aggregate deposits likely to grow 18% FY10
* Not desirable to hike HTM as it is higher vs SLR
* Scraps refinance window for banks to fund MFs, NBFCs
* Scraps foreign exchange swap facility for banks
* Use of special refinance facilities low

STANCE

* Liquidity situation remained comfortable since Nov
* Hike in SLR not to impact liquidity position of banks
* Third quarter policy review scheduled on Jan 29
* To be prepared for swift, effective response to inflation
* Need to keep vigil on inflation trends
* Need to monitor liquidity situation closely, actively
* To maintain a rate regime supportive of growth process
* Mindful of fundamental commitment to price stability
* Will continue to monitor price situation in entirety
* Will take steps swiftly on evolving macroeconomic conditions
* Definitive indications of econ reverting to growth track
* Focus has shifted to managing recovery from crisis mgmt
* Policy dilemma differs in some aspects from other economies
* India actively confronted with upturn in inflation
* Confronted with rising WPI, "stubbornly" elevated CPI
* Reviving local consumption, investment demand a challenge
* Supply constraints may re-emerge, become "binding"
* India's current account deficit "modest"
* Need to make responsible, time bound fiscal adjustment
* Critical need to "downsize" govt borrow to sustain low rates
* Investment demand pick up crucial for long-term econ prospect
* "Exit" a central issue in "policy matrix"
* Need to reverse expansionary stance
* Current stance is not steady state
* India's Exit debate "qualitatively different" from other economies
* Challenge to support recovery without compromising price stability
* Need careful mgmt of trade-offs to support growth, stability
* Growth drivers "warrant a delayed exit"
* Inflation concerns "call for an early exit"
* "Premature exit will derail the fragile growth"
* "Delayed exit can potentially engender inflation expectation"
* Consulted wide array of stakeholders in policy review run up
* On FY basis, WPI has already risen 5.95%
* Dominant argument to reverse stance due to inflation worry
* Forceful argument for early reversal on liquidity worry
* Liquidity bulge may cause unsustainable asset price build-up
* Capital flows have resumed
* Evidence of excess liquidity feeding through asset prices
* Liquidity overhang could engender inflation expectation
* "Premature tightening will hurt the growth impulses"

GOVERNMENT BORROWING

* Feedback from market showed OMO gave "considerable comfort"
* Current liquidity situation should smoothen rest of govt borrow

INFLATION

* Metals' price fall accentuated gap in CPI-WPI inflation rate
* Interest rates in all markets declined significantly
* Low policy rates transmitted to credit market with a lag
* Rise in equity, easy global finances bode well for investment
* Rabi season critical for food inflation going forward
* Large food stocks may mitigate impact of supply constraint
* See greater volatility in global commodity prices coming yrs
* Extent of CPI inflation fall not as expected
* Inflation conditions not "adequately" reflected in WPI, CPI
* To anchor inflationary expectations, ensure price stability
* Policy conduct to continue to perceive 4.0-4.5% inflation

GROWTH

* Low rainfall to impact kharif season
* Farm output during rabi season critical for supply
* Farm output FY10 seen lower vs year ago
* Industrial output prospects more promising now vs Jul policy

BANKS

* Policy steps since Sep upped liquidity by 5.85 trln rupees
* Banks urged to step up efforts towards credit expansion
* Ups banks' provisioning for realty exposure to 1.0% vs 0.4%
* See wide gap among banks' provisioning coverage ratio
* Advises banks to augment provisioning for NPAs
* Banks must keep at least 70% provision coverage ratio
* Banks must keep 70% coverage ratio by Sep end
* 70% coverage ratio includes floating provisions
* Risk weight on banks exposure to infra NBFCs linked to NBFC rtg
* Banks must hold loans at least 1-yr before securitising
* Originators must retain 10% of securitised loans
* OKs banks to open branches in Tier-3 to Tier-6 cities
* Banks branches in Tier-1, Tier-2 need prior OK
* To issue norms on Basel-II enhancements by Nov end
* Norms on duration gap analysis for asset-liability management Nov
* To issue norms on private, foreign banks' compensation
* To issue draft norms on liquidity risk mgmt Dec end
* To issue norms on banks' stress testing by Jan end
* Panel report on micro, small companies credit guarantee by Dec end
* Reimbursed 64.7% of banks farm loans under debt waiver so far
* To consider BPLR panel recommendations post feedback
* Final norms on corporate bond repos by Nov end
* Cuts limit on export credit finance to 15% vs 50%

MARKET DEVELOPMENT

* To issue norms on NCDs below 1-yr by Nov end
* Norms on NCDs to be similar to commercial papers
* To start plain credit default swaps soon
* To finalise norms on credit swaps post market feedback
* To issue floating rate bonds FY10 as per market appetite
* OKs bourses to start futures in euro/rupee, Yen/rupee
* OKs bourses to start futures in pound sterling/rupee

The last few hours selling in the markets lead the Sensex close below 17000 mark. Nifty closed below its major support level of 5000. In the last few blog i have mentioned that the Markets will witness some selling pressure in the coming days. Nifty after making the recent high of 5181 closed below its 20DMA. Yesterday Nifty closed below its long term trendline marked with BLUE. MACD signal is also turned negative. European markets too fell down nearly 1.5%. Nifty will find good support at 4945 levels.

Markets opened up strong, but the uptrend movement was disrupted. After opening up strong, markets slipped down the red zone. Major Indices remained volatile through the day. Markets witnessed some kind of consolidation. In the last 2 days the Major Indices have rallied almost 4%. Traders remained cautious in the trading day. Most of the heavyweights closed in green.
Global markets were trading in green in the early trades. Dow closed above 10000 marks for the first time since Oct 2008. Asian markets closed almost flat. Volumes in the markets were pretty good. NSE cash segment alone contributed Rs20000Cr.
Nifty closed at 5108 marginally down by 10 points or 0.18%, after making an intraday high of 5152 and low of 5077 levels. BSE closed at 17195, down by only 35 points. IT stocks remained under pressure as the Rupee appreciated to break the 46 level. Telecom stocks continued to be on the selling mode. Nifty took support at the trendline.

Life below 5000 levels???

Going back to the last week’s article., this writer had mentioned that the markets are heavy and will see some downward movement. It was also mentioned that the Nifty Index is finding it difficult to keep its afloat above the magical figure of 5000.

Since the 1st day of the month, markets continued to be choppy. As compared to the Mayhem witnessed in the same month last year, this year it’s not been so serious. But the October month started with a choppy session. The bloody effect continued to hurt the markets. Major Indices corrected nearly 3% on week on week basis. Last week’s liquidity drove Nifty cross 5000 mark and helped Sensex to close 17 months high. FII remained buyers to the tune of US $ 4141 mn during Sep. FII Net bought equities worth US$ 12.5bn on YTD basis compared to a selling of US$ 9.2bn in the same period last year.

Stocks of OIL made its debut on the brousers. Stock closed up positive. This week it was the turn of the Pipavav Shipyard to get listed on the brousers. But as OIL, this IPO listing did not impress the investors. Pipavav which was issued at Rs 58, opened up strong made high of 64.70 in BSE, slipped down to make an intraday low of 53.85 levels. Pipavav after its debut listing closed at 56.80 below its issue price.

This writer had mentioned in the last week’s article that the Markets are trading at a PE of 23, which is at the higher side and we might see some correction. Major Indices closed in red on wow basis. Sensex closed at 16642 down by 2.9% wow basis and Nifty closed down by 2.7% below 4950 mark. Nifty closed at 4945. Small Cap Indices too had the bad week. Indices slipped 2.6%. Midcap Indices continued to enjoy its bubbly time. Midcap managed to keep itself afloat buy closing in green. Tech, Telecom & Motor stocks lead the carnage in the market. After the derating of the telecom sector, stocks had their bad time in the week. Bharti Airtel after the closure of the MTN merger talks corrected 21.4% in the week. Rcom corrected 22%, while Idea slipped down 15% in a week. Telecom stocks could correct some more.

In search or alternative currency of Dollar, forced the Dollar depreciate as compared to other currencies. Rupee made a fresh 13-month high this week. On one side strengthening of the Rupee value to US dollar is good news, but the export and the IT companies fell the other way round. Exporters finding it hard. Rupee had appreciated almost 5-7 % from the levels of 49.2 to almost 46.30 levels. IT stocks faced the heat of the depreciating value of the Dollar, as major revenues are from the export business. IT Index closed down 7.2%. HCL slipped down 12%, while TCS closed down by 11%. Wipro and Infosys closed down by 9.3% & 6.9% respectively. Maruti closed down by 10.7% and Tata Motors 6.5%. FMCG sector outperformed the other Indices by closing higher at 5.8%. HUL had a blast of its time, rallying by 9% while ITC surged 7.3%.Some of the Midcap and the Smallcap stocks that shuttered in the week are Shree Ashtavinayak which tanked nearly 30% in the week. Austral Coke continued its journey down closed down 22%. Alkali Metal too closed 22% down. IT stocks like Satyam, Mindtree & Geodesic slipped down in the range of 9-11%. While Jet airways surged 29%, IRB by 15% and EIH by 14.5%.
After 12 months, RIL announces bonus of 1:1 and a divided of Rs 13 a share. It may be announced to keep the investors invested in the stock on back of the ongoing tussle between the two Ambani brothers. The company is fighting a legal battle over the sale of gas to RNRL. The Supreme Court is schedule to start final hearings in the lawsuit on Oct 20th. RIL stock flared up almost 4% in the opening of the session. But corrected in the latter half of the trading session.
Infosys declared its second Quarterly results. The result was in line with the market expectations. Net sales grew by 3%. Company’s net profit grew by 8%. But the same could not impress the market. Stock closed down almost 1.5% down on the day of the announcement and closed down 6.9% on wow basis.

Trading screen turned red on the first day of the week after the recent pull back seen in the Indian markets to a multi month high. Indian markets swinged on the beats of the Global markets and the recent rally in the Indian equity market. Last weeks close appeared to continued to trend positive for some traders. But writer had informed that there will be correction in the India markets. The first day of the week opened with the bang. Sensex slipped nearly 270 points. Next day the markets slipped negative. Sensex made a low of 16622, but the buying in the late hours helped the Indices cover all its lost glory and the Indices closed in green. On Wednesday Sensex opened in green, but after the mid session slipped in the red territory. The Slipped continued for the rest if the week. Sensex closed down at 16642 down by 200 points of Friday. Nifty closed down 2.6% at 4942 levels well below the magical figure of 5000 levels.

Technically Nifty closed below the long term trendline no. 2. It was clear mentioned in the last article that the MACD indicator has registered a Negative Divergence on the daily chart. RSI had also broken down its long term support trendline. Nifty will continue to face resistance at 5013-5016-5046 levels. Nifty support is at 4905-4894-4856 levels.

FII’s which Net buyers were in the last week, turned out to be Net sellers in the current week. FII’s sold stocks worth Rs. 252 Cr. DII’s too remained sellers to the tune of Rs.970 Cr.

Yesterday Reliance Ind announced bonus 1:1. As expected Ril Ind stock opened up strong with a gain of nearly 3.50 - 4%. Sensex opened up strong nearly 170 points positive. Nifty opened above 5000 levels. Buying in the FMCG, OIL & banking supported the mkts, but the telecom sector continued to face the heat. Bharti Airtel tumbled 6.6%. Rcom slipped nearly 6%. Depreciation in the value of Dollar as compared to Indian Rupee continued. Rupee opened strong at 46.36 levels. Technology continued to be week for another day ahead of the Infosys Q2 numbers and the weakness in the dollar.

Markets remained choppy and volatile for most of the day after opening up strong in the green. Sensex at time was trading higher nearly 180 points, but slipped down in the late hours and closed marginally up by 37 points. Nifty closed at 5002.25 up by 16 points. As mentioned in my last blog that the markets are finding it difficult to sustain at the higher levels. Nifty attracts some selling pressure or profit booking above 5000 levels. RSI is also trending down. But either movement will be too fast as the signal given MACD is still not clear. Volumes have been pretty good in the current week. Yesterday the markets corrected. Nifty took support at the trendline at 4986 levels. Nifty took support at the red trendline.

As mentioned in my last blog that the Indian markets will have some correction in the future. On Monday markets opened in red and closed down nearly 250 points down. Global markets were flat on Tuesday. Indian markets opened in green, but in the early hours fell down to red zone. For most of the day the markets traded down, but the in late hours buying in the frontline stocks help lift the markets. Sensex closed at 16946 up 80 points Nifty closed at 5027 up 25 points. Nifty made in intraday low of 4921 levels. Nifty took support at the 20DMA. Again Nifty has taken support at the trendline. Markets may witness some bounce back from here but according to me the Nifty will again find it difficult to sustain above 5000 levels. FII buying in the Indian markets helped the yesterdays pull back rally. Volumes in the market crossed Rs.1L Cr.
Telecomm stocks had the bad day in the markets. Bharti Airtel fell down by almost 10%. Rcom & Idea too crashed. But buying were seen in the other frontline stocks.

The most terrifying period of the last year started from the month of Sep 2008.Global markets tumbled down like a dead pin, resulting crash in the equity markets. Indian markets too faced the heat. The major indices started falling the most in the month of Sep, after the crash in the month of Jan 2008. This year too was expected to feel some pressure too. But the Indian markets outperformed the other global markets. Markets continued to surge on back of inflow from the international funds. FII remained net buyers for the month.

Liquidity crunch could not find its way in the Indian markets. Money kept on pouring in the Indian markets. All the smart money is pouring to the emerging markets. Two of the Govt owned companies too also made their debut in the Indian stock markets. Companies like NHPC and OIL India raised nearly Rs.338bn ($7bn). NHPC listed above its issue price. But slipped below its issue price within days. After the NHPC’s lackluster listing, OIL India took the markets to give a great surprise by listing with premium of 10% over its issue price of Rs 1,050/-. OIL India closed at Rs.1168 on Thursday. FII mopped up close to $12bn. The markets have taken many traders by surprise as the rally has been accompanied by lower volumes. Retail participation was less.

Nifty crossed the major resistance level of 4800. Nifty crossed the 61.8% retracement levels. Nifty has broken out the ascending triangle formation which indicated the bullish pattern in the markets. High liquidity inflow in the markets helped many Indian companies to raise money. RIL Ind, JP Associates & Suzlon raised money via selling their treasury stocks and promoters stock. These are not the only companies who have taken advantage of a surge in the equity markets. Realty companies have also lined up too raise nearly Rs.14,000 Cr via IPO push. Real Estate companies like, Lodha Developers, Sahara Prime, Emaar MGF, BPTP, Kumar Developers, Sriram properties, Oberoi Const & DB realty have either filled the DRHP with SEBI or planning to file.

These were all the good news, but someone should keep track of the PE levels on which the Indian markets are trading at. Major indices have almost doubled up from the lows that were made in the year 2008. Currently, the Nifty us trading at a PE of 23 times. When the Indices peaked in the year 2008, the PE was nearly 28 times. Looking at the past experience, we have seen that the markets had a healthy correction when the PE is above 20. Inflation too turned positive. Inflation will too be a major point of discussion in the near future.

There is still a mixed view about the revival of the US economy. Many thinks that the US economy is at the lower end of its downtrend while some thinks that there is no revival in the US economy and its on the much more bigger economic crisis ahead. Currently the prime lending rate at nearly 0%. The major problem will be when the Fed starts increasing the rates.

One of the shortest weeks in the Indian trading calendars had started with a Bang. For just only 3 days in the weeks for trading and the following long weekend ahead, most of traders did not wish to take much position at hand, resulting in minute correction in the market. On the first day of the month of Oct, markets closed marginally down in red. But the week on week performance was pretty good. Nifty & Sensex both closed up 2.5% higher than the last week close. Smallcap Index closed higher by 2.1%. Midcap Index closed 1.5% higher. The major contributors in the current weeks rally were the Banking stocks. Bank Index surged by almost 5.4%. Axis bank & ICICI bank were up 10.5%, while SBI closed 3% higher. TCS surged 7.3% after bagging some prestigious orders. Wipro was up 7.2% and Infosys up 4.4%. Over all IT index was up by 4.6%. Capital Goods and Metals surged nearly 2%. Midcap stocks like Chemplast closed higher by 25%. Shree Ashtavinayak after having some blocks in the counter surged 21%. ICICI sold its holding in 3I Infotech and the stock zoomed 17%. Fame after reporting the block deal in the last week continued to be locked in the upper circuit and surged almost 16% again in the current week. India Bulls Securities after raising money from the market surged 13% while Parsvnath was up 17%.

Markets opened up higher after the long week end. Bulls were back in action. FII again poured aggressively in the Indian markets. On the 1st day of the week i.e Tuesday, Nifty closed above its 5000 levels after facing resistance at 5017 levels as mentioned in my last article also and on my blog (www.technicalsvishaldangaich.blogspot.com) also. But the same was broken on the next day. Markets opened with a gap and continued to rise. High of 5087 was made in Nifty. On Wednesday, Nifty closed at 5083 levels. FII remained net buyers to the tune of Rs.1, 000 Cr. Being the last trading day of the week, traders did not wish to take too much position in the markets. Markets remained volatile for most of the day. Nifty closed down marginally by 8 points. Nifty made an intraday high of 5110 levels. As mentioned in my last blog that the Nifty will face resistance at 5117 levels. The Maximum level the Nifty can touch is 5167. Trading above that is very difficult. RSI is also trading in the overbought zone.

Nifty will face resistance at 5117-5137-5167 levels.

FII were net buyers for the week. FII were buyer to the tune of Rs .1700 Cr and DII’s too bought stocks worth Rs.570 Cr.

One of the shortest weeks in the year started with a bang. Markets closed in the green for the 2nd consecutive day. Last day of the month markets surged nearly 1.75%. Nifty crossed the resistance level of 5013 levels and closed above at 5077 up 71 points. Same period in the last year the Global markets meltdown started. Current year the global markets are witnessing sharp rally. US markets surged higher on back of better than expected housing data. FII were net buyers in the last 15 days. Today FII were net buyers for nearly Rs.1074Cr. Liquidity in the markets is driving up the markets.
Nifty will face resistance at 5092-5117-5137 and this trend may continue till maximum 5167 levels.

After a long weekend the Bulls were back in action. Markets opened positive with a gap. Sensex opened almost 150 points up. Buying in the heavy weights helped the markets to remain up strong. RIL & ONGC the major contributor closed nearly 2% higher. Sensex closed at 1682 higher up by 160 points. Once again Nifty closed above 5000 levels. On Friday Nifty closed at 4958 after facing resistance at 5000 levels. But today the Indices opened up strong on back of the surged in the global markets. Nifty too good support at 4958 levels as mentioned earlier. But still closed below its resistance levels of 5013-5019 levels. Nifty will continue to have support at 4958 levels.

BUY ONGC above 1200.
SELL SBI tgt 2040- 2015 levles
BUY Sesa goa with SL of 258

Week started with the BANG. Nifty crossed 5000 mark and closed at its 18th month high at 5020 levels after making a high of 5036 levels. As mentioned earlier in the last article and on my personal blog (www.technicalsvishaldangaich.blogspot.com) that the Nifty will face resistance at 5013 – 5019 levels. On the first day of the week Nifty closed above the same, but slipped down immediately on the next day itself, forcing Nifty to close below at 4969 levels. Nifty took support at the trendline. For the next 2 days. On the expiry day Markets opened deep in the red zone, but the smart pullback in the late hours helped the markets recovered sharply. Nifty closed at 4986 levels after making a low of 4904 levels in the intraday. But closed higher in the late hour’s short covering. Nifty on the last day of the expiry made a Long shadow pattern at the higher levels. As mentioned in my last blog that the Nifty will continue to face selling pressure. Nifty on the last day of the week, opened negative and continued to be in the red zone for most of the day. Nifty made a low of 4931 before closing at 4953 levels.

Markets corrected a bit as mentioned in my last article. Nifty will continue to face resistance at 5013 – 5019 levels. Nifty close below 4953 will take continue to slip till 4899 – 4857- 4808 levels. Two consecutive closes above 5013-5019 levels may trigger further buy 5036-5071 levels. Nifty will take support at the trendline marked in BOLD. RSI is trending down. Cautious is advised.

Last day of the expiry had been proved to be good for the bulls. Last hour rally helped lead the markets recover all its lost glory. Sensex which was trading down nearly 150 points surged in the late hours due to short covering in the F&O counters. RIL, HDFC Bank surged heavily in the late hours. Indices opened up week on back of global weakness. For most of the day the Indices remained in the red zone, but surged in the last 1 hour. Nifty tanked in the early hours and made a low of 4904 levels. But turned down positive to make a high of 5016.7 levels, but closed 5000 mark. Nifty closed at 4990 up 20 points. Sensex made an intraday day low of 16494 and surged to 16834 levels. Sensex gained 62 points in the late hours and closed at 16781 levels.

As mentioned in my recent blog this writer had informed, that the Nifty will face resistance at 5013 levels and to remain cautious in the markets. Nifty this made a high of 5036 on Tuesday. Slipped down to 4900 levels today. Nifty chart had made a Long Shadow pattern that indicates that the sellers dominated during the session and drove prices lower, but the buying in the end of the session and the strong close created a long shadow. But this pattern have been made at the higher levels. Nifty is still facing resistance at 5013 levels as mention earlier also. Nifty closed just above the thin trendline. The confirmation of the trend will be decided on the pattern on the next trading day only. Acc to todays rally was just a shortcovering on the expiry date, but tom the mkts can come down again, Nifty will find support 4846 levels and resistance at 5013 levels.

==>> Breakout pattern

Today Nifty has given breakout pattern in the charts. Nifty closed at 5020 after making a high of 5036. Nifty will face resistance at 5055 -5070 levels. Nifty has closed above its major resistance level of 5013. RSI is now in the over bought zone. I would like to advice the readers of this blog to remain cautious in the market. Book profits on every rise.

5000 Mark just kissed, but ‘Cautious’ the word in town

Nifty started the week by closing in red. Nifty closed down 20 points on Monday. Nifty closed below the trendline, but the next day the Markets bounced back sharply. Nifty closed at 4892 after making a high of 4899. As stated that the Nifty will face resistance at 4899 levels and above that the Nifty can touch 4943. Close above that will decide the further movement of the markets. Nifty broke all the resistance levels and closed at 4958 on Wednesday. But for the past 2 days Nifty is trading in a very narrow range. On Friday the markets were trading higher. Thursday the day when the Nifty again cross the 5000 levels, but was unsuccessful to close above the same even for a day. Markets almost slipped to the negative zone. But the Bulls were in no mood to leave the markets. In the past 2 days the markets dipped to trade in the negative zone but closed marginally at in the green. Nifty for the week closed at 4976. Sensex closed at 16741.

Technically speaking the Nifty has made a very similar pattern as Spinning top as per the Candlestick pattern. At the 5000 levels the Bulls are trying very hard to the close above the 5000 mark. Last week Nifty closed above the 61.8% retracement levels. But Nifty will resistance the 5013-5019. Close above the same, nifty will face resistance at 5070 levels. Markets have entered the over bought zone. We might see some correction in the coming weeks. Indian markets are indecisive so are the Global markets. The Bad news in the Chinese markets has still not faded out. My advice is don’t get too euphoric. Avoid taking too much position in the market.

==>> It's 5000 now

Finally the Nifty hit the 5000 mark. But closed below at 4948.60 down by just 9 points. Markets in the opening session showed strength, but lost it after the mid session. Sensex which was trading higher at almost 130-140 points slipped down to the negative territory. Reliance Ind share price was in constant pressure since morning, even after the block deal in the counter. Tata Steel which was trading higher, too slipped in the red.
As mentioned in my earlier blog that the Nifty will face resistance at 4969 levels and the close above the same will mark a new high for the 2009. Nifty next resistance levels were also mentioned. 4987- 5013 levels. Today Nifty made a new high for current year 2009, at 5003 levels, but could manage the continue its winning streak further. Nifty closed marginally down by 9 points at 4948.60. On Tuesday, Nifty had given a breakout above the trendline. Yesterday the rally continued, but today the markets opened up strong but slipped into red. Nifty will find big resistance at 4991-5015 levels.

Markes continued their winning streak with gud volumes. Nifty made its new 2009 and closed above its 52 week high. As menioned in my last blog that Nifty has resistance at 4969 levels. Niftyclosed at 4962 after making a high of 4966 levels. Close above the same will take the Nifty to 4987-5013 levels. Markets will witness some selling pressure at the higher levels.

==>> Nifty closed at its 52 week high

Finally the Nifty has hit the 52- week high levels. As mentioned earlier also that the Nifty is facing stiff resistance the trendline. In the last week, Nifty for 4 out of 5 trading days, closed almost at the trendline and the volumes were also not impressive. But finally the Nifty has crossed the above trendline (marked in the chart) and closed above that too with good volumes. Yesterday also the markets closed marginally below the opening levels, but the bulls did not loose the hopes and once again started the day with a positive note.

Markets opened up strong and continued its northward journey helping Nifty to close at its 52-Week high levels. But Nifty continued to face resistance at 4900 levels and closed at 4892 after making a high of 4899.45 levels again. Nifty was up 83 points or 1.74%. Sensex closed at 16454 up 240 points or 1.48%. Mid cap & Small Cap index was too almost 1.5%. PSU Banks were the target for today. Mid cap continue to flare up. Rally in the Auto, Bank, Reality and Metals helped the markets to close higher.

Turnover for the markets were at around Rs90000Cr. It was pretty good as compared to the other days.
In the last 5 days Nifty took support of the 61.8% retracement levels. As mentioned earlier also that the Nifty if crosses above 4836 levels, then it will make a room till 4899 levels. Nifty has stiff resistance at the 4899 levels, but as soon as this is crossed then the Nifty will jump to 4917-4969-4982 levels. The MACD is also trying to give a buy signal. RSI have turned upside. Tomorrow the markets should open up strong. 5000 in the Nifty could be seen in this week. But stay cautious and trade.

Nifty for the last week closed at 4680. On Monday Nifty chart had showed a breakout pattern above the Triangle pattern. Nifty for the first time since May 2008 closed above 4748 levels. Nifty closed at 4782 levels. In the last 4 months, Nifty was trading in an Island pattern between 4375-748 levels, but could not sustain the selling pressure. But finally this was made possible and Nifty closed at its 15 months high. But Nifty faced resistance at the trendline no.1. Nifty for the rest of the week continued to face resistance at the trendline. On Thursday, Nifty made an intraday high of 4889.05, but close down with marginal gain of just 5 points. Sensex which was trading higher almost 250 points, felt the heat and tanked to the negative territory levels. Prior to the fall on Thursday this writer had informed that the markets will witness some profit booking, keep light and the markets are likely to fall. (www.technicalsvishaldangaich.blogspot.com) On Friday again the markets were trading like a headless animal. Nifty gained just 16 points.

On Friday, Nifty closed marginally above the trendline. Volumes were pretty good in the current week as compared to the last week. Markets are finding it really hard to stabilize at the higher levels. Traders are advised to trade with strict SL. Nifty close 4836 will make further room upside till 4899 levels. Nifty will continue to have good support at 4746 levels. Nifty have closed above the 61.8% retracement levels.

Indian Markets are trading above the major resistance levels, but finding it difficult to stay afloat. Nifty in the current week have given breakout pattern above the 4740 levels, and currently trading above 4800 levels. But in the past 3 days Nifty is finding it very difficult to stay above the 4846 levels, as mentioned earlier also the Nifty has resistance level at the same. In the last 3 days it did made an intraday high above the same, but could not close above the same. In the last blog I had mentioned that the close above the same will take the Nifty upto 4889-4925 levels. Today Nifty made an intraday high of 4889 levels as mentioned. For the past 3 days Nifty is finding it difficult to close above the trendline. It is closing almost at the trendline. Breakout above the same could take the Nifty straight to 4925-4950++ levels.
Till will continue to have good support at 4740 levels. Yesterday the Bulls did try to make the Nifty close above 4846 levels, but the panic selling or profit booking drag down the markets again after the mid session. I am glad to inform that this writer had informed the clients to b0ok profits in their trades when the Sensex was trading higher around 230 points, and as we all can see that the Sensex fell down to the negative territory, but closed marginally higher.
I would still think that the traders should keep their positions light in the market. I don’t think so that the markets will fall like it use to fall in the near past, but it is better no to make loss in the trades. There are more chances that the markets will continue to rally. but the SL has to be kept in mind.

The Nifty for the first time since May 2008 closed above 4800 after hitting an intraday high of 4842.20. Strong rally and short covering in the frontline stocks helped the markets surged 1.5%. A spectacular rally in the RIL and SBI helped the markets to surge. Global markets too were very positive. More of the frontline stocks outperformed the markets. After running a quite in the past, Midcap stocks witnesses profit booking today.

Nifty after making an intraday high of 4842 before settling at 4805 levels. Sensex made a intraday high & low of 16232.16 & 16030.56 before closing at 16123.67. As mentioned in my last blog that the markets will continue to rally and the Nifty can go upto 4836 levels. Nifty faced resistance at the trendline. And from the same levels, nifty corrected nearly 40 points, but closed above nearly 22 points. Yesterday Nifty had given a breakout from the Triangle pattern. But continued to face resistance at the parallel trendline.( marked with Yellow) Nifty have closed marginally below the trendline. In the closing hours Nifty fell down sharply from 4846 levels. Breakout above the trendline is expected with volumes. Volumes in the markets were pretty good, but Nifty could not close above the same. Close above the trendline will take the Nifty to 4889 – 4925 levels. Nifty will have good support at 4748 levels.

==>> Nifty brokeout above the Island pattern

For the first time since May 2008, Nifty closed at 4782 levels. In the last few months, Nifty was trading in an Island pattern between 4375- 4748 levels. Nifty in the last 4 months, tried several times to close above 4748 levels, but could sustain the selling pressure. But finally this time the Bulls have made it possible. Indices closed at 15 month high. Sensex touched a new high of 16035. Before closing at 16016 up 327 points or 2.09%. Nifty made an intraday high of 4790 before closing at 4782.90 levels up 102 points or 2.19%.
In the early hours Indices opened up with marginal gains, but positive global cues, buying in frontline stocks and short covering, helped indices rally nearly 2%.
As mentioned in my last blog also, that the Upside move in the markets are more in sight, rather downside. As stated that the Nifty in last few months was trading in an Island pattern. And the breakout pattern through the triangle pattern, will take the Nifty to 4803-4836 levels. RSI has also turned positive, and MACD is also trying to turn +ve. Mid cap stocks were doing pretty well. Bears will continue to cover their shorts for sometime. Nifty will have resistance at the 61.8% retracement level.

==>> Nifty bounces back

On the Friday 28th Aug 2009, Nifty closed at 4747. Nifty was all set to give a breakout pattern in the daily chart. But the negative trend in the Global markets, lead the fall in the Indian markets. On Monday, markets opened red and continued to fall to close at 4662. On Tuesday markets opened up strong, Indices continued to surge. Nifty surged to make a high of 4735.90 levels, but unexpected selling in the markets, lead the Indices fall sharply. Nifty fell down to make a low of 4600.65 but closed at 4625. For the next two days Nifty closed down in red. Nifty took support at 4578 levels as mentioned in my blog also (www.technicalsvishaldangaich@blogspot.com). The last day rally in the markets snapped the 4 days losses. Nifty took support at the trendline (marked in the chart) and pulled back sharply on the last day of the week. Nifty in the coming week might give a breakout patter either side. Nifty at the lower levels has support at 4578-4610 levels. In the last 3 days nifty took support at the 20DMA and bounced back. In the chart we may see that Nifty might give breakout pattern through the Triangle pattern. Either side breakout will be too fast and that too with volumes.

In the last 3 months we can witness that the Nifty is trading in the Island pattern. Nifty in the current week faced resistance at 4746 levels and again corrected to make a low of 4576 levels. There were reports that the Nifty will correct more and may fall down to 4200 levels. Nifty will face resistance at 4746 levels. And will continue to have support at 4610-4578 levels. Next week we might see some pull back and the breakout pattern may be witnessed in the next week. But the levels should be kept in the mind. Close above 4746 levels Nifty may touch 4803-4836-4899 levels.

Yesterday, we saw markets falling like a dead pin. Bulls had a bad time yesterday. Nifty faced resistance at 4746 levels. Bulls tried to take Nifty above 4746 levels, but could not succeed. Markets saw an unexpected sell off in the markets. Yesterday markets which opened up strong. Nifty was all set to cross 4750 levels, but sell off lead the Index close below at 4625 levels
Nifty once again faced resistance at the trendline. Indices remained in the positive zone for most of the day. Shanghai markets fell down by almost 7 %. This triggered the selling in the Indian markets. Nifty which made a high of 4735.90 slipped down to 4600 levels, within minutes of the trades. Nifty on Monday closed below at 4625 levels. In the last 2 days Indian markets faced resistance at their trendline. Fear of some major correction in the Chinese markets too leads the bearish trend in the Indian markets.

Today Nifty closed at 4607.75, made a intraday high and low of 4650 & 4576 respectively. Markets remained lack luster for most of the day. Indices kept on changing their positions from –ve to +ve zone. Nifty has a good support at 4578 levels. Close below 4600 levels may take Nifty to 4510 levels. On Monday, a small inverted hammer pattern had been created in the Nifty chart. And Today A Doji pattern has been made, this indicates that we might some pull back tomorrow. The corrections in the Indian markets are mainly due to global cues. As soon as the Global markets review our markets will too surge. The close on Friday gave a strong indication that the markets will continue its northward journey, But on Monday & Tuesday, Shanghai markets corrected heavily so our markets too.
BUY Relcapital with SL of 875 tgt 1000++

==>> Shanghai spoils the party

On Friday, markets closed up green. But today opened on the negative note on back of week Asian markets. Chinese markets were the main culprit to the fall in the Global markets. Shanghai fell down almost 7% in intraday trading. Reports are in the markets that the Chinese markets may still see 5-15% correction. Indian Indices too opened weak. Sensex opened down by 90 points slipped down nearly 330 points in the mid session. But recovered some points in the late hours to close down by 255 points at 15659. Nifty tumbled down to make a intraday low of 4635. Nifty closed at 4662, down by 70 points or 1.48%. Heavy sell off the IT, Power, FMCG and telecom stocks lead the markets tumbled down.

Q1 GDP grew by 6.10% v/s 7.80% YoY.
Farm sector growth at 2.4% versus 3% YoY
Manufacturing growth at 3.4% versus 5.5% YoY
Mining sector growth at 7.9% versus 4.6% YoY
Construction sector growth at 7.1% Vs 8.4% YoY
Industry growth at 5% versus 6% YoY
Services sector growth at 7.8% versus 10.2% YoY

But compared to the QoQ GDP grew by 6.10% v/s 5.80%, and that is good. The Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission Montek Singh Ahluwalia is still confident that the economy will clock % growth in FY10 despite the drought.

On Friday also Nifty could not cross the upper trendline line. Today also it faced resistance at the same. In the last 3 months we have seen that 4700 levels in Nifty attract selling pressure. Breakout above the recent high with good volumes is necessary for the Bulls to take charge.

Markets continued to be volatile. Markets continued to swing from the high of almost 150 points and dropping down to almost zero levels. But closed marginally higher in green. Indices gained around 0.50% on one day prior to the monthly expiry of the F&O. Volumes were pretty good above 1 lakh Cr. Mid cap continued its unstoppable rally. Reliance Ind and the major IT stocks helped the rally. But the sell off in the other heavyweight stocks like ONGC, HUL, HDFC Bank, Bharti, ITC, Hero Honda capped the rally.
Nifty made an intraday high of 4697.80 and closed at 4677.90. Selling pressure continued to put pressure. Sell off kept Nifty off the track and Nifty could not close above 4700 levels. Rolls have been pretty good in the markets. More over there are long rollovers happening in the markets. As stated in the earlier blog also that the Nifty will continue to face resistance at 4700 levels. If Nifty closes above 4700 levels then we might new high above 4800.
Yesterdays call Satyam continued to rock and closed above at 110.30 after making an intraday high of 111.95.
Karutari Global closed above 16. BUY Tata Steel above 470.
BUY Abb with SL of 730.

==>> 4th consecutive day of rally.

Markets continued its northward rally for its 4th day. In the early hours markets opened up strong. Sensex was almost 200 points down, but aftre the noon, pulled back sharply to close in the green by around 65 points. Nifty in the intraday made a low of 4582 and high of 4672 before closing at 4657. Volumes were also pretty good in the market. Shanghai markets in the early hours fell down almost 6% but recovered in sometime. Sensex closed in green. We might see some side ways movement tommorrow.

Buy call on Karutari was given for some quick bugs.

Buy call on Satyam at 103.

==>> "I am back to 4600 levels" - Nifty

Nifty is back to the 4600 levels. In the last few trading session 4600 levels is Nifty had really proved to be an important level. Nifty after breakdown below the 4600 tanked to the 4440 levels. But agained bounced back to close above 4600 levels. Midcap stocks continued to shine. Midcap stocks weref found locked in the upper circuit levels. In the last 3 days Nifty nearly rose 250 points and Sensex surged almost 800 points. Many brokers had come out with reports saying that the Nifty will tank to 3800 levels, but wrirter continiusly informed that the markets are in Bulls, and 4440 levels is a very good support. I had also stated that, till the time Nifty closes below the same for more that 2 consecutive day, Nifty will not go down further. And finally the Nifty bounced back from the 4440 levels and that to, sharply. If the Nifty closes above 4700 levels this time, then the recent high could be broken.
Global cues too helped the Indian markets. Most of the Asian and Global Indices too surged almost 3-4%. US indices futures were too trading a percentage up. Volumes remained lackluster in the markets.

==>>Nifty bounced back sharply

Volumes have been very dry in the week. On the Thursday, volumes gained on back of new listing of Adani power. FII for the week remained seller for the amount of Rs.3000 Cr for the week ended 20th Aug 2009. DII remained buyers for the week to the tune of Rs1500 cr. Wholesale Price Index-based inflation fell 1.53 per cent during the week ended August 8 against the previous week’s year-on-year dip of 1.74 per cent, according to data issued on Thursday. Midcap continued its rally.
On Monday Nifty closed below the 4440 levels and below its 2 parallel trendline. RSI to close below its trendline. Nifty continued its roller coaster ride. Nifty took support at the 50DMA. Nifty continued to face resistance to close above the resistance level. But successfully closed above the same on Friday, with good volumes. Nifty will continue to have support at 4440 levels. Nifty has small resistance at 20DMA at 4530 levels. But close above the same can take Nifty to 4585 -4637 levels.