Nifty for the week closed above 2874, made a high of 2881. Sensex endeed up at 9424. around 8% above the last week close of 8674.

==>>Nifty range seen 2700-3250

Just a glimpse of the Indian Markets in the past 1 year start from the all time high in Nifty of 6357 made on 8th Jan 2008 and the low of 2252 on 27th Oct 2008. If we try to put the Fibonacci theory in the Nifty chart we can clearly see that the nifty is facing stiff resistance at the 3250, that is also the 23.6% retracement level by the theory. Nifty at the lower levels is finding support at 2700 levels.

For some companies the results have been good, but for others the last few quarters have been really bad. RIL came out with good reults, Tata steel net profit halved. PSU banks have posted very good results for the 3rd quarter. Long term investors can take positions in the PSU banks. Yes the returns are slow in these but atleast it will be sure. Volumes have fallen drastically in the last few days. Nifty willl still face the resistance level at 3250. till the time that is not broken, nifty will trade in 2700-3250 levels only. Break below 2700 can take the Nifty to 2550 levels, that is likely not possible. But that will also depend on the Global markets. Oil prices have cut down by Rs5, Diesel by Rs2.

1) Weight in WPI 2) Constituent 3)Decline in Price 4)Net Impact on WPI (WoW decline)
1)0.89% 2)WPI of Petrol 3) -10.0% 4)-0.09%
1)2.02% 2) WPI of High speed diesel oil 3) -5.0% 4)-0.11%

1)1.84% 2)WPI of Liquified Petroleum Gas 3) -7.0% 4)-0.13%
Net Impact on WPI(WoW Decline-0.33%

On Wednesday i had given a buy call on PSTL @ 21.8, its locked in the upper circuit at 24.30, hold on with the SL of 21......

Volumes in markets in the last few sessions have been lackluster. There are hardly any buyers in the markets. Expiry is nearing, but there are very few volumes in the F&O counters too. Stock specific movements are only there. Companies who have come out with good results see great movements. Companies with bad results are bashed up by operators, by creating short positions. Rela Estate companies are still to announce their results. We may see some great movements in the sector. DLF results are expected to be very sluggish. Dont take buy position in that.
Key rates have been kept unchanged, and RBI sees inflation falling below 3% in near future. So there may be rate cuts in Feb or March. RBI maintains 7% growth in GDP. Nifty tryin to find support at 2700 levels. Major corporate results have been good so far.

RBI Third quarter policy review - Key Highlights

Economic targets revised:
Real GDP growth for 2008-09 is revised downwards to 7.0% from 7.5-8.0% earlier with a downward bias.
WPI inflation expected to decelerate below 3.0% March ‘09 end.
Monetary aggregates revised targets
Target for M3(Broad money supply) growth for FY09 revised to 19.0% from 16.5-17% earlier.
Target for Aggregate deposits growth for FY09 revised to 19.0% from 17% earlier.
Target for Adjusted non-food credit growth for FY09 revised to 24.0% from 20.0% earlier

Monetary measures:
Bank rate unchanged at 6%
Repo rate unchanged at 5.5%
Reverse-repo rate unchanged at 4%
CRR unchanged at 5.0%

Liquidity support facilities (up to 30 June 2009):
For meeting the funding requirements of mutual funds (MFs), nonbanking financial companies (NBFCs) and housing finance companies (HFCs) through relaxation of SLR up to 1.5% of their NDTL.
Special refinance facility for SCBs (excluding RRBs) available up to 1.0% of each bank’s NDTL as on October 24, 2008.

Since last few days the volumes in the Indian markets have been very lously. Volumes for both the Exchange are less then Rs10,000 Cr. It seems that DII's and even FII's are not having interest in the Indian markets. The Satyam still continues this week also. Major of the Satyam and the Maytas orders have been canceled. Major contracts on hold. Rumours in the mkts that, there may be many more companies in India that have been doing the same things. Real Estate company's books may under the scanner. Today there were rumours that Educomp is the company after that Satyam that have done the same thing. Unitech have rescheduled its loan amount. They are looking forward to raise new funds buy selling stake or their private properties or fresh loan. The funniest things is that they are raising money via loan to pay back the previous loan. How are they goning to make the payments. Sobha developers were in the news that the company is facing the financial crisis. No clarity has been so far from the management.
Technically the Nifty is taking goos support at the 2750 levels but the volumes are very very less. and 2850 levels seems to be a tough reisistance levels

==>> Real Estate tremour

Inflation for the week slips to 5.24% its lowest level since Feb 2008, for the week ended Jan 3rd on the back of sharp fall iin the prices of food articels and crude prices.
Major Leading news paper are writing that the Real Estate prices have fallen down to the 2004-2005 levels. Real estate companies are blaming the the Banks for the cause. According to me the actual prices have not yet fallen down. The only thing is stopped is that, the investors have stopped investing in this sector. Banks have cut down the intrest rate also, but that too very small % and only for the new takers. The borrowers who have taken loan way back are still paying heavy bank intrest. Crude prices have also fallen down on slidding down, even the production cut by the OPEC have not helped the prices to stabalise. The developers are raising unlimited money to pay back to the loan they have taken from the bank. Some of the leading developers to boost the sales and increase the demand, have started making low cost affordabel houses. They are unable to sell the property, according to me the, prices will slide down further.

[12:30] vishal_retail: Markets can boounce back from these levels, rnrl looking very strong, some bad news can be there in ICSA, stay away from this counter. sensex -371 points.

[13:08] vishal_retail: There was [problem in the US mkt as Nortel had filed for bankruptcy, so the US mkt fell down. In India only Sasken had the contract with the Nortel. Infy and Tcs has very less exposure to Nortel. Infosys during the bad time in US has posted great results, so i dont so i dont think so there is major problem in India. so i think so the mkts will see some pull back, sensex down by 325 points

==>> Choppy session with speculation in Mid caps

The markets were very volatile with some speculation is some of the mid caps liek Rolta fallinb by around 50%, BRFL by 30% etc. After the weak opening, markets rallied to make a high of 2802 in Nifty and 9261 in Sensex. In the mid session makets we saw slide in the market. Nifty made a low of 2720 and closed at 2758. Low of 8992 in Sensex and the close was 9101. Nifty close is above 2750, that has been proved to be a good support. Sensex after a long time made a low below 9000 levels, but closed above the same. As mentioned earlier that the Nifty has a resistance at 3150. Nifty on various occassion tried to close above 3150 like 04,05,10,11 Nov, 19,22 Dec, 05,06,07 Jan, but could not close above the same. In the last week the rally was interupted by Mr. Raju (Satyam). The Rs.7000 Cr fraud spoiled the party. We may see some pull back from this level. I have a buy call on the Nifty today in the closing session when the Nifty spot was trading nearly 30 points negative.
Crude prices are again at their 4 yr low nearly $35 per barrel on the back of lack of demand. Production cut by the Gulf countries have also not helped the crude to be stabalize. Infosys posted better than expected results with 33% rise in net profit. Market men expected that Infosys will report net decline in NP. Short positions were created on Monday.

==>> Traders day out

Today traders enjoyed the session. We saw nearly 200 points movement in Sensex. Indian markets closed the session on a mixed note with high volatility- the Nifty seen consolidating near 3100 levels. Pvt banking, metals, auto, oil marketing companies attracted good buyers. Volumes were also pretty good as compared to the few trading sessions in the past. We have rarely seen volumes of Nse cash above Rs 10,000 Cr. Last we have seen in the month of Dec and few trading session in Nov. Technically both Nifty and the Sensex are in the Bullish mode, But Nifty has a resistance at 3150 levels. In the last 2 traidng session Nifty tried to make new high of 3150 but failed and today it closed at 3128 after making a high of 3141. Yesterday Nifty closed above the above trendline (see chart), but facing resistance at 3150. break out above that is must, and above that nifty will touch 3250.
Few Short term calls given on Satyam at 131, Gmr at 74, Sail at 91, Ril at 1310, mercator at 31 etc.

In the last weeks blog i have mentioned that the Nifty is in the Bullish trend and it will find support at the lower trendline and resistace at the above trendline. On Monday Nifty bounced back from the low of 2812 and on Friday made a high of the week at 3079, near to the above trendline. Breakout through the above trendline and few close above that can take the Nifty to 3150-3200-3400 levels also. Not much was provided in the Stimuls package, and the same had been factored in the last week.

==>> Year 2008 Good for some, others feel like disaster

The Year 2008 ended with Sensex and Nifty closing down nearly 50-55% down from their all time high. Sensex high in the month of Jan was 21,113 and Nifty made a high of 6357. Global markets dropped like a pin. Indian markets have also felt the pain. In the carnage Sensex made a recent low of 7697 and Nifty2252 in the month of Oct. In the month of Dec FII remained Net Buyers. For the rest of the year they were Net sellers. DII remained net buyers for maximum period of the year. Month of Oct saw heavy redemption pressure from the local people. In the year 2008 crude price made a desparate move to make a all time high of $145per barrell, but in the same year it has fallen below the 2007 levels also. The volatility in the crude price was mainly due to the economic crisis globally and the cut in the production of the crude in the Oil producing countries. The fall was witness as the demand for the crude prices fell sharply in developed coutries. The Gold & Silver also touched their life time high levels. Gold was mostly preferred by the investor, as it was the only alternative for the money to be parked in. Realty prices also seen some sharp fall in the prices. Realty cos prices crashed in the equity markets. Prices have seen a fall of nearly 80-85%. Even the bestest of the best companies prices have fallen like the dead pin. In the month fo the Jan I have been reading many reports about those Constrution companies, the price target ws much more higher then the price in the month of Jan. The same Analsyt had become negative on the sector after few months. We have seen sharp fall in the share prices but the same was not witnessed in the real life in India. Realty prices have shrply fallen in the US because of the mortgage loans and other financial crisis. The year of 2008 have not been good year for some of the countries too. Many counties are in the recesssion. Many Financial institutions have been closed down, some have been taken over by the Govt or other Financial inst, many have gone bankrupt. Even the Automobile firms had to face the heat of the recession and the falling demand. Many countries have announced stimulus package for the bailout of the companies in the countries. Even Indian government have also announced stimulus package. Globally, rate cut have announced by the respective governments.
This writer apologises that he was not able to provide full information about the sharp correction in the Indian markets. But from the month of Feb, I have informed that the investors should not think of investing in the Real estate and Banking sector. From the month of Feb have we have seen a sharp fall in the share prices, on back of falling demand. In the year we saw rate cuts Globally. Some people say the year was good, and some felt like a disaster(pay cut, job cut).
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