Tuesday, June 30, 2009
I had given call on TCS to buy above 397 above 405 wil see some fast moves. But that did not triggered and the stock closed at 389.70.Infosys looks week.
Monday, June 29, 2009
==>> Indices closes below 20DMA, but will continue its rally.
Many companies have lined up for raising up money from the Markets. From where are all these money coming from. Real Estate companies are the major borrowers via FCCB's or QIP's or some other way's. I really dont understand how much money will the borrow. I am sure that the Debt-Equity ratio of the comopanies might have shot up like anything. Will there be any change in the fundamentals??? Next week is the BIG day for the India, as the New UPA Govt will be coming out with the Budget, so these companies are lined up to borrow money before the BIG day arrives. If the Budget is not as per the expectations, then the markets may come down, and the stock prices may fall. So this Week all the companies are lined up..... Watch out for the stocks that have raised money. Kindly do not make any position on those stocks......
Saturday, June 27, 2009
==>> Gap Theory
For the week ended 26th June 2009, FII’s remained Net seller in the cash markets. According to the provisional figure provided on the site FII’s sold stocks worth Rs 3200 CR. But on the other hand DII’s were Net buyers for Rs2600 CR till 25th June 2009. As the last week for the F&O contract expiry, Volumes had picked up in the market.
Roll overs in the F&O were pretty good. Rolls in the stocks were better than the rolls in the Nifty future. Nifty registered its lowest ever rolls at just 55%. Sectors like Sugar, Auto & Shipping were the top performer in the rolls.
Technically speaking. As per the Fibonacci Theory, if we take the levels of Nifty from its all time high to its low that was made in the month of Oct 2008, i.e. 6289.80 and 2252.75, the 50% retracement level comes nearly about 4315-4325 levels. This week Nifty tried its luck for 3 times, to close above the same, but could not conquer the same. Nifty fell down to make of low of 4143 for the week. Finally Nifty closed above 4315-4325 levels on Friday at 4375 up by133.65 points or 3.15%. Nifty made a high of 4383 and low of 4143 levels. Nifty above 4405 will touch 4448-4529. The gap, that has been created in the Nifty and the Sensex chart after the rally that has been witnessed when the UPA govt came in the power, are not yet filled up, so that still remains the concern for the market. But as the Nifty has crossed and closed above 4325 levels, the rally will continue for a while. In the weekly chart a ‘Hammer’ Pattern has been made at the lower levels. That may confirm the upside move for the Nifty. Sensex Retracement levels were is 14525 levels. Sensex closed above the same at 14764.64 up by 419 points or 2.92%. Since the 1st week of June when the Nifty was at 4550 levels this writer had continuously warned the readers in the personal blog (www.technicalsvishaldangaich.blogspot.com) that, the markets will soon witness some correction. Since then, Nifty from the high of 4688 dropped down to make a low of 4143 levels.
Finally the Rains are there. Rains too are a major concern for the Indian markets. Till now rainfalls in the month of June are below normal by 52%. The Indian Meteorological Department has predicted that the Rainfall this year will be below normal. Some of the states have been worst hit by around 70-80% deficit in rainfall. If India does not get sufficient rains in the year, it may cause a serious issue. The State which produces Soya bean, Cotton, sugarcane, corn & other pulses, will be worst hit. The prices may sky rocket in the near future. But as the rains have started, in some state, that might definitely give some relief.
Stocks to watch are
BUY Power grid cmp 110 tgt 116-125 SL 104 SL 104.5
BUY ADLABS cmp 366 tgt 374-386-390 SL 359
Hero Honda looks week, at close below 1405.
BUY REL Capital cmp 937 tgt 972-1015 SL 949
BUY TCS above 396 tgt 405- 434 SL 389
Thursday, June 25, 2009
==>> Niftys Roller coaster ride
Turnover for the day was Rs 96000 Cr just from the F&O segment, NSE Cash segment contributed around Rs23500 CR, and the remaining Rs 4600 Cr came from BSE segment. US markets closed flat, Asian markets gained nearly 2- 2.5%.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
==>> Markets closes flat
In the early trade Nifty made a low of 4143. In my last blog I had mentioned that the Nifty below 4251 can fall down to 4205 and the close below that the Nifty can test 4189-4159 levels also. Nifty took good support at 4164 levels and then pulled back. It never turned its back to the point. Markets continued its rally. We had a pretty volatile session today. But RIL counter saw good buying. In the Daily chart of Nifty, a "Doji" pattern have been created, that may prove that the markets may turn positive. In the Past also we have seen that whenever a Doji pattern is created at the lower level of the markets, or after some correction, we might see some pull back. As Indian markets too depend on the Global markets too, and if they turn out to be positive then the Nifty may be pulled back to 4350 levels. RSI is also at its 50 value. This may also turn to be positive sign..
Some of the Buy calls which have been given in the open markets were...
BTST
BUY Relcapital at 884 tgt 898-918.
BUY Adlabs at 35.5 tgt 361-374.
([15:13] vishal_retail: If the Nifty closes flat then it will be the very good. Nifty will make a Hammer like pattern, that too at the lower levels. If the Global mkts endeds flat also, Indian mkts can outperform the other mkts. BTST Nifty futures)
Fresh built up seen in Nifty, ACC, JP Ass, Ibreal, Unitech, Relcapital, SBIN, Ttata Steel, Idea, Rcom. Long built up seen RIL, RILinfra, ONGC, NTPC, T Power, LITL, IVRCL, HDFC. Short covering in DLF, LT, Punj, Suzlon, HDFCBank, ICici, Jindal steel, sesa goa, MCdowel & titan.
Monday, June 22, 2009
==>> Nifty closes below 4250
Friday, June 19, 2009
==>> Nifty good support at 4205 levels
Thursday, June 18, 2009
==>> Slide show continues
For the first time since 1977-1978, Inflation for the week came at -1.6% vs 0.13%. So does this mean that India is in recession?? No not at all.. For a country to be in recession will declare its negative real economic growth or falling GDP for atleat continuesly for 2 Quarters. It just means that there is fall in the demand of goods & services and increase in the real value of the money.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
==>> Nifty retracement levels at 4315-4325
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
==>> Indian Markets outperformed the Global Markets
Monday, June 15, 2009
==>> Nfity closes marginally above 4500 levels
Before the RIL-RNRL case results were out, markets witnessed selling pressure. SGX Nifty was down around 1% before the open of the markets in India. Metals, Capital goods and reality stocks were down heavily. Viewers of this blog have been informed in the recent past the marekts are looking pretty heavy and the markets will see some correction.
Friday, June 12, 2009
==>> Nifty closes below 4600 mark
Tuesday, June 09, 2009
==>> Unexpected rally
It was totally an unexpected rally.Techincally the markets were not looking that strong, but still the buying in the frontline stocks helped the markets to surge. I would like to inform all the readers of this blog, to stay cautious in the market. Trade with SL, do not carry forward too much position.
Monday, June 08, 2009
==>> Nifty closed below 4450
In my last blog written on Friday, i have clearly gave an early indication of the sell off in the market, and that too a bit on the higher side. Nifty as mentioned earlier, that it has a good support at 4450 levels, Nifty in the last week closed above the same, but could not sustain above the same. Nifty today closed below 4450 levels. It was clearly told that the markets were trading in the over bought zone, and the profit booking will come. In the last few days Mid caps also did not perform well, and selected frontline stocks continously saw profit bookings. Today, market men tried to pull back the markets by rigging the heavy weight RIL shares, but lost their hold in front of the Bears. We might see some more correction, before the next round of buying in the marekts. Those who have book their profits in the last week, will get to buy the stocks at the lower levels again.
In the last week Baltic Dry index was up, so all the Shipping stocks were doing good. But now the Index is down again and so is the stocks of SHipping.
Friday, June 05, 2009
==>> Markets may witness some correction from next week
==>>
==>> Correction on its way
Thursday, June 04, 2009
==>> Sensex closed above 15000 levels for the 1st time since Sep 2008
Indian markets for today also njoied the Roller coaster ride. Indices opened week. Sensex for a point was trading 270 points down, but in the mid session pull backed smartly to close up 138 points. Nifty closed 42 points up. Nifty closed at 4570 after making a low of 4453 ( as mentioned earlier the 4450 is a very good support). Sensex for the first time after Sep 2008 closed above 15000 level. Sensex made an intra day low of 14599, but recovered smartly and closed at 15008.68.
Yesteday I have mentioned that, the candle stick patter in the chart of the Nifty suggest some correction is pending, and will get the confirmation not before today trading session. Indian markets opened week, but surged again in the late hours. Indices were trading flat in the mid session, but surged in the closing session. This does not mean that, we may not see any correction. Traders are still adivced to keep their position light. We may have seen that the frontline stocks saw serious correction in the early trades, operators offloaded their major holdings in the midcaps too.