Thursday, August 06, 2009

==>> Chinese Markets and NHPC leads to Indian mkt fall

Heavy selling in the markets dragged the Indices down by almost 3% in the intraday. But some how managed to closed nearly 2-5% negative. Markets in the mid session looked nearly strong, as the markets recovered sharply in the morning trades. For most of the day Indices remained in the positive zone, but could not sustain at the higher levels. Nifty had resistance at 4717 levels. On Monday, Nifty closed above 4700 for the first time since Sep 2008. But could not sustain at that levels. Next 2 days profit booking were seen above 4700 levels. FII’s sold the most. DII’s too booked some profits.
In the early hours markets looked very strong on back of good buying in the Bank and IT stocks. Stocks like RIL, Icici Bank, TCS, and Tata Steel rallied in the early trades, but dropped down like a pin in the late hours. After the early hours, there was heavy Basket selling in the Nifty stocks. Nifty this was up nearly 25 points dropped down by over 100 points to close below 4600. Heavy selling and fresh shorts in the Auto & Steel sector lead the markets fall. As mentioned in my last blog that the two day pattern indicates that there can be some hault in the upside move. But the today’s 3rd day pattern will only confirm the movement. We had some the breakout pattern in above the 2 parallel trendline. Today’s candle stick pattern confirmed that the upside is capped for time being. As in the last 2 days both the Bulls & Bears tried their best to control the markets. If the markets would have closed above at the 4730 levels then we could have seen 4850. But as the markets have given break down then we might see downside till 4515- 4450 in the extreme case. Markets are still not in the grip of the Bears. It is just that so me booking for the IPO of the NHPC has to be done. IPO is expected to attract nearly Rs.50000 Cr in the application. So from where will this money come from??
Various reports about the Chinese markets are out now these days. Chinese stocks look pretty expensive. Real estate stocks are highly overpriced. We might see some serious correction in the Chinese markets. Shanghai dropped to nearly 3% in the early trades. Europe markets too opened up week. Nifty resistance at 4700. Monsoon this year is down by almost 70% as compared to the normal rainfall. NHPC IPO money. All this lead the markets to fall down by 3%.
The RSI pattern in the chart too faced stiff resistance at the trendline. Could not surpass the same in the recent days, and now it has too turned to be negative. But the MACD is still not negative. Tomorrows day pattern will only decide the markets trend.

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