Don’t worry we are not going anywhere.

With inflation so high, no stopping on banks increasing interest rates, unstoppable scams, instability in Indian governments, depreciating rupee, downgrades by most of the FII’s, how we can think the Indian markets are going to out perform the Global markets. We are not going to gain from this rally. Either I should say that we are not going to see any major uptrend from here. Year 2011 was one of the most highly volatile years; next year seems to be more volatile than ever.

US will take a lot of time to recover from recession, Europe sitting on the pile of debts, many countries have been declared bankrupt. In this scenario how can we expect the Indian markets to attract FII inflows? In the quarter ended Sep, Indian markets lost almost 12-15%.

For the week Indian equities closed down in red. Nifty and Sensex both closed down in the range of 1.5-2.0%. IT index lost 5.7% and metal 4.5%. In the gainers were Ranbaxy 9%, Dlf 11%, Infy 8%, JP Ass 19%, Educomp 17%, Jindal Saw 14%, Tata Motors 6.5%, Hcl 6%, Ambuja Cement 12.5%, Financial tech 11%. On the loosers side ADAG lead the pack. Relcap lost 22%, Relinfra 13%, Rcom10%. Ster closed down by 8%, Axis bank 7%, IFCI 19%, IRB 12%.Pantaloon was one of the major stock which lost heavily, it closed down 32%. Opto circuit and Jubilant lost 17% each. Abb and Lnt lost 7-6%.

Technically speaking we had one of the worst trading week this year. The markets were highly volatile. Last weeks close suggested that we might see some bounce back as a perfect Doji pattern was made. But the selling mode continued on the first day of the week also but the same have been absorbed on the very next day when the markets recovered. Every next day of opposite to the previous days close. Nifty found it difficult to close above its 20DMA. And finally on the last day of the trading week close below its 23.60% retracement levels. If nifty closes below the trendline then we may see another round of correction which may take the Nifty below 4800 levels also. MACD is almost on the verge of giving negative divergence. The three parallel indicates that if nifty pulls back then it has to trade in that range. Otherwise the fall could be seen in the Indian markets.

Call for the week

Sell Adani Ent close below 523 SL 531.

Buy Asian paint above 3170. SL 3154.

Sell Axisbank below 1030 SL 1039.

Sell Hero corp below 1940 SL 1946.

Sell Hdil below 95 SL 97.

Sell IDBI with SL of 103.75