Sunday, November 20, 2011

Almost there are 16000 levels.


Rupee made a new low this week against Dollar. Rupee hit a 32 month low and its almost near its all time low. RBI has indicated that it will be difficult to boost Rupee at this juncture.

Rising Fuel price have made a dent in the Airlines companies in India. Air India has been in trouble since a long time and has been surviving on the government funds. Now King Fisher Airlines have also pulled up his hands, and now seeking government intervention.

Fuel Prices have cooled off for the first time since Jan 2009 and also for the first time since the automobile fuel was decontrolled in June Last year. The price has been cut by Rs.2+. The Oil Marketing companies informed that the cut was possible only after the softening of the International crude prices.

In the last three months Indian markets lost the most over the last 7 sessions. The market sentiment also dented by the Euro zone debt crisis and its impact on the global economy and the financial system.

FII have bought equities worth about $663 million so far this year sharply below from $29Bn they invested in 2010.

Investors believe that the Indian growth will be well below the 8.5% this year.

Indian markets have fallen like a pack of cards. Nifty and Sensex lost slightly above 5% in a single week. Midcap Index lost 7% and Small Cap 9%, Reality 11%, Capital Goods 10%, Metal Index 8%, Bankex lost 5%, Oil & Gas 10%, Auto 7%, & IT 2%

There is endless number of stocks which lost more than 5%. JP Associates, Bhel, Relcap, Mnm, Sail, Rcom, Sesagoa, Siemens, Jsw Energy, Arvin, Crompton, Maruti, RPower, Relinace Infra, & Dlf lost in the range of 10-20% in a single week. Some of the midcap stocks have fallen down so much that they are now counted in the small cap. Kwality Dairy fell 49%, Suajan 36%.

Margin call pressure has really taken a toll on some of the stocks. Pipavav Doc lost 34%. The companies pledged shares amounts to 95%. There was rumours floating in the market that there were selling in the pledged shares and some naked shorts created by some brokers. Educomp lost 23%. Suzlon lost 31% and 2.5% reduction in the promoters stake, Adani Ent lost 27%. IFCI 24%, Ivrcl 21. Redemption of FCCBs of many companies are lined up in 2012. The sharp correction in the share price of the stock prices has made it hard for the companies to convert the FCCBs into shares.

Most of the frontline stocks hit their 52 week low. Stocks like Tata Steel, Sesagoa, Axis Bank, Maruti, Hindalco made their new 52 week low.

After a worst ever week for KFA last week, It gained more than 20% this week. FDI involment in the retail sector was good news for the stocks like Pantaloon. Amar raja batteries after its results have gained 6%. Cipla gained 9% while Patni after its delisting news closed up with a gain of 23%.

Nifty made a low of 4837. In the past also we have seen Nifty taking a support at 4800 levels and turned back. But according to me this time the 4800 levels could be broken and could go beyond the recent low also.

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