Sun 26th: It finally feels that we are over bought…

If you have read my last two articles that says “Are we not overbought????” & “Are we still not Over Bought???”. It clearly mentions that we are under pressure and no it could be difficult to climb higher as we did in the recent past. As the inflow have reached more the Rs.20K Cr in just 2 months, Indian markets have surged more than 20%. Nifty closed down almost near our first target of 5400.

International News

Greece ended months of uncertainty by finally securing a new bailout and debt-restructuring agreement with euro-zone finance ministers, but doubts remain over whether Greece will be able to meet the ambitious terms of the accord. The finance ministers agreed on the long-awaited €130 billion ($171.9 billion) deal after haggling into the early hours of Tuesday morning to settle the final details.

Dow Jones touched 13000 for the first time since May 2008 after Greece secured a bailout to avoid a March default. Signs of improvement in the economy and stabilization of Europe’s debt crisis have driven the Down more than 20% since last year, while the S&P has climbed more than 8% so far this year. Eurozone finance ministers have agreed on a $172bn rescue for Greece to avert an imminent chaotic default. Even with the bailout, Greece faces road to economic recovery. Greece Economy will not return to growth till 2014.

Crude news

The price of Brent crude has rallied strongly during the past month and this week, it reached the highest level since last August when the market was still coming to terms with the loss of Libyan oil. The rally has been driven by numerous geo-political events which collectively have increased the risk of supply disruptions from countries, such as Libya, Syria, Nigeria, Sudan and not least Iran, the world’s third-largest oil exporter.

FII inflows

FII continued to be positive but the phase have slowed down. FII bought stocks worth Rs.2300Cr and the total for this month has topped at Rs.14500Cr. Total FII inflow since start of Jan is almost Rs.24K Cr. DII have been sellers in the market since the start of the year. Total Sell amount surged to Rs.16K Cr. DII’s sold stocks worth Rs.3200Cr.

Back to Indian Markets
Nifty made a high of 5521 and a low of 5406 and finally settled down at 5429 levels. Nifty corrected exactly 200 points from its recent high of 5606 made in the last month. In my last article also I had mentioned that the long rally should come to halt, as in technical phrase, we are trading in a over bought zone, which made slightly difficult to have only upside movement. At the current levels also it is difficult to be in comfortable state. We still might see some further downside movements. In the Chart it is clearly seen that the 123.6% Fibonacci Retracement levels comes to 5604 levels and from there the Nifty had been falling to stop only at 5400 levels which is again its base levels. Further fall beyond 5400 levels can trigger fresh round of selling pressure. MACD in the last week had given a selling signal as we were trading in the over bought zone.